bluewave Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: What a difference a week makes We’ll consider it a January thaw even through the colder period was short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 A much milder period lies ahead. The development of an EPO+/AO+ pattern will lead to a noticeable warming trend. Temperatures could peak well in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 60s from Philadelphia southward late in the week. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. A storm could bring moderate to perhaps significant precipitation to the region from Wednesday night into Friday morning. Ahead of the storm, some ice and sleet is likely far north and west of New York City and Newark, mainly from the Hudson Valley north and westward from late Tuesday through Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +10.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.284 today. On January 19 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.875 (RMM). The January 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.993 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.4° (2.7° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/14/2024 at 8:26 AM, donsutherland1 said: Weekly numbers: The most "winterlike" week so far this season lies ahead. The weekly period proved colder than had been indicated on the guidance. It also saw snow in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Snowfall in Philadelphia and Washington, DC was higher than suggested by the EPS. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think the Boston stat is sadder than CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, MANDA said: I think the Boston stat is sadder than CP. Maybe but they'll probably have more opportunities to make up some of their deficit before central park does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18 minutes ago, MANDA said: I think the Boston stat is sadder than CP. I disagree. If I have $2.30 and my buddy in Boston has $7.90, it doesn't matter to me that he's supposed to have $19.30 - he still has more money than me. Sure, I can laugh at him about that, but he can still buy a #7 meal at McDonald's while all I can get is a Diet Coke. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I did a nice hike this afternoon in a not too windy spot, and with a hat, gloves, and warm jacket, was actually quite pleasant out. It's been nice to have snow cover, but not too much so that you can't go out and play (unless you ski or own a snowmobile). Too bad it will be history by the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Friday's storm went on to do a number on Ireland today, widespread wind damage, many trees down all over, and gusts to 80 kts on west coast. It is now a 947 mb low n.w. of Scotland. Named Isha by UK and Ireland met services. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A much milder period lies ahead. The development of an EPO+/AO+ pattern will lead to a noticeable warming trend. Temperatures could peak well in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 60s from Philadelphia southward late in the week. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. A storm could bring moderate to perhaps significant precipitation to the region from Wednesday night into Friday morning. Ahead of the storm, some ice and sleet is likely far north and west of New York City and Newark, mainly from the Hudson Valley north and westward from late Tuesday through Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +10.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.284 today. On January 19 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.875 (RMM). The January 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.993 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.4° (2.7° above normal). I remember last week your sensitivity analysis had Jan at +.6 which seemed much too cold. It’s been slowly and now recently rapidly going up to 2.7 which is likely still too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We’re getting 60s this week? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I remember last week your sensitivity analysis had Jan at +.6 which seemed much too cold. It’s been slowly and now recently rapidly going up to 2.7 which is likely still too cold That’s based on the guidance. The models shifted toward a very mild close to January. A +3 anomaly is possible, even as the guidance is short of it right now. The ECMWF weeklies are really mild. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: We’re getting 60s this week? Don't think we are getting that warm. Maybe 50? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: We’re getting 60s this week? Works for me. If it's not going to snow I prefer mild weather. Unfortunately it looks like we'll have some rain/clouds with it though. GFS does keep us on the colder side of the gradient though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: We’re getting 60s this week? Upton bumped me up to upper 50s friday. Probably won't be 67 like the euro has 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Don't think we are getting that warm. Maybe 50? I’ll take the over for 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Don't think we are getting that warm. Maybe 50? Not on Long Island at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Despite last week's snowfalls and the recent cold shot, Winter 2023-24 continues to rank among the 10 worst winters in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall for New York City through January 21st. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: OES, Ed? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Down to 13 after a high of 28. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0Z ICON 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8° this morning. Goodbye cold weather, a week wasn’t long enough. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 A thread for ice tomorrow morning will only post if NYC or LI is involved, since I know icing is not of much interest to the forum. It is coming tomorrow morning as attached in chances. No thread for what I think is a probable coastal storm next Sunday-Monday but could be too warm I95 east so staying put with no thread for 1/28-29 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 13.8, think that’s my low on the season so far. Welp, was nice while it lasted. Fun week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Friday's storm went on to do a number on Ireland today, widespread wind damage, many trees down all over, and gusts to 80 kts on west coast. It is now a 947 mb low n.w. of Scotland. Named Isha by UK and Ireland met services. They name their storms dont they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Does Central Park's 2.3" tie it with the overall total for last season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 hours ago, snowman19 said: He’s saying late February and March actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO @Allsnow Sorry *likely* on the positive side.... February has an extra day this year lol. And luckily it comes at the end of the month sooooo an extra day for it to snow?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This morning felt amazing. Nice to breathe in that cold air and feel it in your lungs. Walked to the train and saw a beautiful snowmaking cloud over Thunder Ridge. I just hope they get the double chairlift fixed soon! Ahh if only this could last 3 straight months. I don’t get why people live in cold climates and complain when it gets cold. I don’t go to Florida and complain at the heat and humidity when I’m there in summertime. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 What a dreary week coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Does Central Park's 2.3" tie it with the overall total for last season? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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