wdrag Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS show a similar solution and that HP in southeast Canada will be critical Yes... objectively, how does the big flooding rain making Gulf States trough open up? Flat east or somewhat as modeled (possibly delayed a little more?) and then how does the impinging northern stream short wave forcing on the flow across New England? Lots of options but I would not say snowstorm, nor would I say not a snowstorm somewhere between Charlottesville VA and ALB. Best approach for me (no thread atom due a vast amount of uncertainties) is to keep an eye one the 5H ejection from the Gulf States in future cycles and hope that it makes it up to the Ohio River and the Mason Dixon line Monday. I dont know what happens except that this 1/28-31 period has been on some of the modeling mind for a few days. It could be another snow hole here? Just dont know but I can't be dismissive about possibilities. I think the door is open a little bit. One other thing... I want this closed low intact if it comes out through NJ-DE. If it loses a lot of its indentity, is will look weaker and zip away. For nw, there is no sign of the 500 intensifying as whatever transfer off the mid Atlantic coast, so it wont be a forever event. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The other thing that is hostile is how the trough has a strong positive tilt. That alone supports a well out to sea solution. I see no way that the end of the month becomes a major coastal snowstorm despite what some operational runs may show there hasn't been a major coastal snowstorm in over 2 years nobody ever said that is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Break out the short sleeve shirts on Friday 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Break out the short sleeve shirts on Friday and will it be sunny? I see they are saying sunny and 50s for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, wdrag said: Yes... objectively, how does the big flooding rain making Gulf States trough open up? Flat east or somewhat as modeled (possibly delayed a little more?) and then how does the impinging northern stream short wave forcing on the flow across New England? Lots of options but I would not say snowstorm, nor would I say not a snowstorm somewhere between Charlottesville VA and ALB. Best approach for me (no thread atom due a vast amount of uncertainties) is to keep an eye one the 5H ejection from the Gulf States in future cycles and hope that it makes it up to the Ohio River and the Mason Dixon line Monday. I dont know what happens except that this 1/28-31 period has been on some of the modeling mind for a few days. It could be another snow hole here? Just dont know but I can't be dismissive about possibilities. I think the door is open a little bit. One other thing... I want this closed low intact if it comes out through NJ-DE. If it loses a lot of its indentity, is will look weaker and zip away. For nw, there is no sign of the 500 intensifying as whatever transfer off the mid Atlantic coast, so it wont be a forever event. need the cold enough air and HP to arrive in southeast Canada first and cold enough air here first before the storm moves towards it but that doesn't seem to be on the table as of now - still some sort of possibilities for changes in timings of these features ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: and will it be sunny? I see they are saying sunny and 50s for Saturday Upton has partly sunny around 50 as of last nights update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Break out the short sleeve shirts on Friday What a difference a week makes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The new 12z EPS, GEFS, GEPS look completely unimpressive for 1/28-1/30 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Allsnow said: so what you're telling me is, we're gonna torch for a few weeks then by mid feb we have a shot at another snowy peroid? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: so what you're telling me is, we're gonna torch for a few weeks then by mid feb we have a shot at another snowy peroid? Not sure we torch but probably above average with few snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 31 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: so what you're telling me is, we're gonna torch for a few weeks then by mid feb we have a shot at another snowy peroid? He’s saying late February and March actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO @Allsnow Sorry *likely* 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Not sure we torch but probably above average with few snow chances considering how weird the weather has been around here the last 2 years have to keep our options open for the last few days of January to see if we get one of those frozen events that happen sometimes in an unfavorable pattern IMO...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, snowman19 said: He’s saying late February and March now actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO nobody knows for sure all guess work.......just like the winter outlooks written in November/December that flopped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: considering how weird the weather has been around here the last 2 years have to keep our options open for the last few days of January to see if we get one of those frozen events that happen sometimes in a bad pattern IMO...... Yep look at how we mostly got skunked in a relatively good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: He’s saying late February and March now actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO Damn S19! Just when I finally figured out MJO 8-1-2 and its relation to Anthony’s screen name ….. you hit us with 10. As always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: He’s saying late February and March actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO I don’t think he is saying “possibly” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: He’s saying late February and March actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO @Allsnow Sorry *likely* Just saying that I didn’t read that tweet as him implying “possibly”… Do I agree with it? No. I think we get one more week in late February and that will be it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ice photos from today. The freeze will be ending tomorrow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Just saying that I didn’t read that tweet as him implying “possibly”… Do I agree with it? No. I think we get one more week in late February and that will be it We'll get opportunities for sure. I still think we could get at least one KU style storm a la 82/83 this winter. Watching end of Jan with that PNA spike and then mid Feb with Nino climo + potential blocking setting up. +PNA should be transient but ensembles have been trending more amplified with it which should cause more cold air in the east. March is a wild card but could be active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 What a difference a week makes These temp maps are deceptive. They make it look like the world is on fire. Such nonsense. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The other thing that is hostile is how the trough has a strong positive tilt. That alone supports a well out to sea solution. I see no way that the end of the month becomes a major coastal snowstorm despite what some operational runs may show I suspect that if it snows near the end of the month, and that's not certain, it would be a light snowfall. A lot of the forecast pattern would need to change for there to be a real opportunity for a moderate or greater snowfall. At present, the operational 12z ECMWF is an outlier relative to its own ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: He’s saying late February and March actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO @Allsnow Sorry *likely* He thinks around the 1st week of February we transition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Strong ENSO Climatology: A Pair of Hideous Maps: It should be noted that skill deteriorates during Week 2. It remains more likely than not that the maps are showing a pause in Winter 2023-24, not its demise, even as the CFSv2 is showing a February 2016-type outcome with almost coast-to-coast warmth. A lot more evidence would be needed to adopt the more extreme idea that Winter 2023-24 is all but finished. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Break out the short sleeve shirts on Friday Not going to be anywhere near 65 on Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It’s phillys winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Would not be surprised tonight has the coldest temperatures of the season for some of the suburbs. Nice snowpack and lighter winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 51 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s phillys winter Until next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: These temp maps are deceptive. They make it look like the world is on fire. Such nonsense. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Until next month Ant. You have to change your user name back to Metfan4life. I actually believe it has been a jinx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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