January 2024

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We would have been in the purple too, like central Jersey, if the last storm gained latitude.

Track hurt us.

It snowed here on the south shore, but it didn't stick, which was an interesting experience.  Areas north of us got more snow too, it just sucks to be near the ocean.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It has more to do with track than warmth. The last storm was cold enough everywhere, however it stayed south.

But areas north of us got more snow too.  The SST is 43-45 which is just too warm unless you have strong arctic air in the region.

Borderline events are the ones which will go away first.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It snowed here on the south shore, but it didn't stick, which was an interesting experience.  Areas north of us got more snow too, it just sucks to be near the ocean.

 

The last storm didn't stick there? It was in the 20s and it stuck to the jersey shore.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

The last storm didn't stick there? It was in the 20s and it stuck to the jersey shore.

No, we had filtered sunshine while it was snowing and the roads and driveways and cartops and rooftops were just wet at 31 degrees.

We just live in a highly urbanized area, it's different for the north shore and for Central NJ.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, do you have a short list of winters that had that kind of bad pattern the most?

 

Such patterns are not common. For the January-February 1950-2023 period, there were 4,606 days with 344 (7.5%) meeting the criteria (AO: +1.000 or above /EPO +1.000 or above). There were three winters where January-February saw 10 or more such days.

1963-64: 14 days; Total snowfall during those days: 0.2"

1988-89: 22 days; Total snowfall during those days: None

2019-20: 12 days; Total snowfall during those days: 0.2"

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, we had filtered sunshine while it was snowing and the roads and driveways and cartops and rooftops were just wet at 31 degrees.

We just live in a highly urbanized area, it's different for the north shore and for Central NJ.

Gotcha. Here on the CT coast the first two storms had more to do with poor radar returns than warmth. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Gotcha. Here on the CT coast the first two storms had more to do with poor radar returns than warmth. 

I enjoyed the first storm, that was an easy 2" here maybe even a little more than that, before it mixed and changed over.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Such patterns are not common. For the January-February 1950-2023 period, there were 4,606 days with 344 (7.5%) meeting the criteria (AO: +1.000 or above /EPO +1.000 or above). There were three winters where January-February saw 10 or more such days.

1963-64: 12 days; Total snowfall during those days: 0.2"

1988-89: 22 days; Total snowfall during those days: None

2019-20: 12 days; Total snowfall during those days: 0.2"

 

It's shocking to have 1963-64 in that list, didn't we get almost 4 feet of snow in that winter, Don? Was it all outside of the core of winter?

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's shocking to have 1963-64 in that list, didn't we get almost 4 feet of snow in that winter, Don? Was it all outside of the core of winter?

 

Yes, but that winter’s patterns were generally very good for snowfall. The 12 days of a horrible pattern didn’t have much impact. The lack of snow during those 12 days during a snowy winter illustrates just what a bad pattern it is.

[SACRUS]

 

19 last night and up to 22.  Cold is fleeing.  Warm and wet week once to Tue - Fri.  Overall warm , Fri - Sat 50s with a shot at near 60s if we clear.  Cools down as next storm moves through to end the month 1/30- 1/31. Overall warmer to start Feb.  Sun sets at 5:00 PM today since DST Nov 4.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:


Highs:

EWR: 63 (2006)
NYC: 63 (2006)
LGA: 64 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: -8 (1985) * was EWR reading too cold
NYC: -2 (1985)
LGA: -3 (1985)

 

Historical:

 

1863 - A severe coastal storm dropped heavy rain on the Fredericksburg area of Virginia. It disrupted a Union Army offensive in an ill famed "mud march." (David Ludlum)

 

1963: Up to 3" of snow falls on San Francisco, their heaviest since 1887.

1982 - The second of two major snowstorms to hit southern Minnesota came to an end. Minneapolis received 20 inches of snow in 24 hours to break the previous record of 17 inches in 24 hours established just a few days earlier. A record 38 inches of snow covered the ground following the two storms, with drifts ten feet high. (David Ludlum)

1985 - Three days of snow squalls at Buffalo NY finally came to an end. The squalls, induced by relatively warm water in Lake Erie, produced 34 inches of snow at the International Airport, with up to 47 inches reported in the suburbs of Buffalo. The New York "blizzard of '85" left many counties disaster areas. (19th-21st) (Weather Channel) (Storm Data) President Reagan was sworn in for a second term in the coldest Inauguration Ceremony of record. Cold and wind resulted in wind chill readings as much as 30 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1985: Jacksonville, Florida, recorded its all-time record low of 7 degrees. Macon, Georgia, had its coldest day ever with a temperature of 6 degrees.  It was the coldest Inauguration day in history as President Reagan is sworn in for a second term during cold and winds that resulted in wind chill readings of 30 degrees below zero. Because of the bitter cold temperatures, many outdoor Inauguration events were canceled, and President Reagan was sworn in the Capitol Rotunda.

 

1987 - Low pressure over Minnesota produced high winds in the Northern Plains Region. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 70 mph at Belle Fourche SD. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - High pressure over northern Nevada and low pressure off the coast of southern California combined to produce high winds in the southwestern U.S. Wind gusts in the San Francisco area reached 70 mph at Fremont. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Cold and snow prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Up to 13 inches of snow was reported between Woodford and Searsburg in Vermont. Montpelier VT reported a wind chill reading of 42 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the state of Florida. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including West Palm Beach with a reading of 86 degrees. Rain in southern New England changed to freezing rain, then to sleet, and then to heavy snow during the late morning. Most of Massachusetts was blanketed with 6 to 10 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1999: A major tornado outbreak occurred from the southwest into central and northeast Arkansas during the afternoon and evening. In the Little Rock Area, 30 tornadoes tracked across 15 counties. Homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed in Little Rock, Beebe, McRae, and areas farther north and east. Eight deaths resulted from the tornadoes, with 140 to 150 injuries also reported.

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Gotcha. Here on the CT coast the first two storms had more to do with poor radar returns than warmth. 

I feel like anyone who loves snow should not live near the coast.  Even in so-called bad patterns the Poconos does a lot better than anyone else at that latitude.  Even with southern sliders they get more snow (4 inches in the last storm.)  24-30 inches of snow already on the season including one storm that dumped 15 inches there.  Elevation is snow's best friend, both for accumulation and for duration of snowcover.

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:


Highs:

EWR: 63 (2006)
NYC: 63 (2006)
LGA: 64 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: -8 (1985) * was EWR reading too cold
NYC: -2 (1985)
LGA: -3 (1985)

 

Historical:

 

1863 - A severe coastal storm dropped heavy rain on the Fredericksburg area of Virginia. It disrupted a Union Army offensive in an ill famed "mud march." (David Ludlum)

 

1963: Up to 3" of snow falls on San Francisco, their heaviest since 1887.

1982 - The second of two major snowstorms to hit southern Minnesota came to an end. Minneapolis received 20 inches of snow in 24 hours to break the previous record of 17 inches in 24 hours established just a few days earlier. A record 38 inches of snow covered the ground following the two storms, with drifts ten feet high. (David Ludlum)

1985 - Three days of snow squalls at Buffalo NY finally came to an end. The squalls, induced by relatively warm water in Lake Erie, produced 34 inches of snow at the International Airport, with up to 47 inches reported in the suburbs of Buffalo. The New York "blizzard of '85" left many counties disaster areas. (19th-21st) (Weather Channel) (Storm Data) President Reagan was sworn in for a second term in the coldest Inauguration Ceremony of record. Cold and wind resulted in wind chill readings as much as 30 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1985: Jacksonville, Florida, recorded its all-time record low of 7 degrees. Macon, Georgia, had its coldest day ever with a temperature of 6 degrees.  It was the coldest Inauguration day in history as President Reagan is sworn in for a second term during cold and winds that resulted in wind chill readings of 30 degrees below zero. Because of the bitter cold temperatures, many outdoor Inauguration events were canceled, and President Reagan was sworn in the Capitol Rotunda.

 

1987 - Low pressure over Minnesota produced high winds in the Northern Plains Region. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 70 mph at Belle Fourche SD. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - High pressure over northern Nevada and low pressure off the coast of southern California combined to produce high winds in the southwestern U.S. Wind gusts in the San Francisco area reached 70 mph at Fremont. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Cold and snow prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Up to 13 inches of snow was reported between Woodford and Searsburg in Vermont. Montpelier VT reported a wind chill reading of 42 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the state of Florida. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including West Palm Beach with a reading of 86 degrees. Rain in southern New England changed to freezing rain, then to sleet, and then to heavy snow during the late morning. Most of Massachusetts was blanketed with 6 to 10 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1999: A major tornado outbreak occurred from the southwest into central and northeast Arkansas during the afternoon and evening. In the Little Rock Area, 30 tornadoes tracked across 15 counties. Homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed in Little Rock, Beebe, McRae, and areas farther north and east. Eight deaths resulted from the tornadoes, with 140 to 150 injuries also reported.

Wow I guess we missed out on the heavy snow that SNE got on this date in 1990.

Wow, 1985's cold record was today..... Tony, can you list the record low at JFK from 1985 for today too?

And that -8 at EWR isn't too cold because they also hit -8 in other arctic outbreaks in the 80s, including in 1980, 1982 and 1984!

Philly hit -7 or -8 in those arctic outbreaks too.

Jacksonville down to single digits is absolutely amazing!  Did it snow down there?

[MANDA]

Snowfall my location so far this month: 10.2".  Season to date: 10.5".

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

19 last night and up to 22.  Cold is fleeing.  Warm and wet week once to Tue - Fri.  Overall warm , Fri - Sat 50s with a shot at near 60s if we clear.  Cools down as next storm moves through to end the month 1/30- 1/31. Overall warmer to start Feb.  Sun sets at 5:00 PM today since DST Nov 4.

 

 

 

Tony please list the record low from 1985 for today from JFK. It was the last time they went below zero.

Also, the -8 from EWR isn't too cold, they also hit -8 in other arctic outbreaks during the 80s, including in 1980, 1982 and 1984.

Philly hit -7 or -8 in those arctic outbreaks too.

Jacksonville down to single digits is absolutely amazing!  Did it snow down there?

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

I think part of that is just the fact that it is the coast, and just the way it goes sometimes around here.    It also seems like this winter isn't so atrocious so far once you get away from the immediate coast.  The talk here has been so doom and gloom generally (edit: among the amateur / snow fan crowd like myself), that looking at the totals posted above, I was actually surprised to see how many within this forum's 'viewing area' are near or well over a foot.  Just asking aloud here, Is that map so far off from norms for January 21st, again, just away from the coast?  Even right at the coast, what's normal for this point in the season?  Can't be more than 6-8" at best.  

 

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony please list the record low from 1985 for today from JFK. It was the last time they went below zero.

Also, the -8 from EWR isn't too cold, they also hit -8 in other arctic outbreaks during the 80s, including in 1980, 1982 and 1984.

Philly hit -7 or -8 in those arctic outbreaks too.

Jacksonville down to single digits is absolutely amazing!  Did it snow down there?

-2 at JFK.

[Volcanic Winter]

27 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I think part of that is just the fact that it is the coast, and just the way it goes sometimes around here.    It also seems like this winter isn't so atrocious so far once you get away from the immediate coast.  The talk here has been so doom and gloom generally (edit: among the amateur / snow fan crowd like myself), that looking at the totals posted above, I was actually surprised to see how many within this forum's 'viewing area' are near or well over a foot.  Just asking aloud here, Is that map so far off from norms for January 21st, again, just away from the coast?  Even right at the coast, what's normal for this point in the season?  Can't be more than 6-8" at best.  

 

Fair points, but I just want to mention that averages include all seasons including La Niña “shutouts.” I guess we can debate if this Niño was too strong ultimately, but central based (the forcing has been CP, right?) Niño’s with periods of polar favorability should yield more snow than the reverse, and thus I don’t always personally agree with going by averages to contextualize a season. Some seasons are above average, or the average would be lower. And those seasons are generally favorable ENSO state with a cooperative polar domain. I say it like this because even back in the prior -PDO cycle decades ago we snowed regularly with an unfavorable Pac (-PNA), due to -AO/-NAO pulling its weight.

Just IMHO. 

And of course, it snows less at the coast than the elevated interior. But we still get snow here. We still have had outstanding seasons and outstanding single storms. But I do think WRT snow at the coast it’s more about temperature, because it needs to be cold to offset any imperfections with the synoptics of the storm or track itself. The coast is far more temperature sensitive than inland, elevated areas. We just had a BN week and the coast snowed twice. 

[donsutherland1]

Even as prospects for snowfall have diminished for at least the next week, Wednesday could see some ice issues, generally from the Hudson Valley north and westward.

[wdrag]

January 23, 2024.  Thought you might want to review upcoming guidance for Tuesday.

Everything posted at about 7AM in NW-NE suburbs looks pretty much in line with our new daytime modeling (12z/21 HRRR, RGEM and NAM).  Think its going to get slippery pretty quick on Tuesday I84 corridor, especially afternoon-evening.  Lets see if modeling holds onto the ONSET speed of sleet to snow during the daylight hours Tuesday. This may be threaded late today or tomorrow morning as it looks pretty good to get down to I80--- not quite 100% yet on I80 but am 70%  sure which would include some of the NYC suburbs and northern LI. Thread pending updated 12z/21 and 18z ensemble guidance and 18z/21 NAM/RDPS 2m temp and dewpoint trends for 12z Wed. It's a fine line along I80 and the normal warmer RDPS is colder than the NAM but trending warmer slightly so dont want to waste your time on thread that doesn't affect nearest 10miles nw-n-ne of CP. If it's nice... main treated roads wet for sure but I could see a few delays in the nw suburbs even east of I287. 

 

Don's post above supports what is written here. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Fair points, but I just want to mention that averages include all seasons including La Niña “shutouts.” I guess we can debate if this Niño was too strong ultimately, but central based (the forcing has been CP, right?) Niño’s with periods of polar favorability should yield more snow than the reverse, and thus I don’t always personally agree with going by averages to contextualize a season. Some seasons are above average, or the average would be lower. And those seasons are generally favorable ENSO state with a cooperative polar domain. I say it like this because even back in the prior -PDO cycle decades ago we snowed regularly with an unfavorable Pac (-PNA), due to -AO/-NAO pulling its weight.

Just IMHO. 

la ninas after el ninos are the snowiest season of all

but just to sum it all up-- enso itself constitutes only 20% of our weather.

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I think part of that is just the fact that it is the coast, and just the way it goes sometimes around here.    It also seems like this winter isn't so atrocious so far once you get away from the immediate coast.  The talk here has been so doom and gloom generally (edit: among the amateur / snow fan crowd like myself), that looking at the totals posted above, I was actually surprised to see how many within this forum's 'viewing area' are near or well over a foot.  Just asking aloud here, Is that map so far off from norms for January 21st, again, just away from the coast?  Even right at the coast, what's normal for this point in the season?  Can't be more than 6-8" at best.  

 

It's easier to go by norms by the end of the month, since this is what we'll have at the end of the month too lol.  Normal snowfall in December is 3" and it's 7" in January.  So by the end of January we should have 10"

Also, remember we are population weighed towards the coast, the more you get away from the water the less the number of people that live there.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's shocking to have 1963-64 in that list, didn't we get almost 4 feet of snow in that winter, Don? Was it all outside of the core of winter?

 

Here's a summary of data for January and February 1964 in New York City:

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a summary of data for January and February 1964 in New York City:

it's nice to see so much snowfall even with average temperatures above freezing in that period, Don!  How much snow did we have outside of January and February? We had snow even in April didn't we?

 

[MJO812]

We need rain 

My  car is a mess

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony please list the record low from 1985 for today from JFK. It was the last time they went below zero.

Also, the -8 from EWR isn't too cold, they also hit -8 in other arctic outbreaks during the 80s, including in 1980, 1982 and 1984.

Philly hit -7 or -8 in those arctic outbreaks too.

Jacksonville down to single digits is absolutely amazing!  Did it snow down there?

 

Brutally cold then.   Don posted JFK

 

some other

TTN: -10
ACY: -9
PHL: -6
New Bnsk:  -6

 

 

ISP: -3 (1984)

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need rain 

My  car is a mess

This winter? Rain? Don't think that'll be a problem

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need rain 

My  car is a mess

And the sad thing about that is you've not got not much in the way of totals to show for it.

Out this way the roads are a mess with all the excess road salt.  Like a dust storm on parts of Route 80. 

So yes, wanting some rain.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Brutally cold then.   Don posted JFK

 

some other

TTN: -10
ACY: -9
PHL: -6
New Bnsk:  -6

 

 

ISP: -3 (1984)

Positively epic! I wish we could figure out why NYC never gets below -2 anymore lol.

Is JFK'S all time record low -2? I haven't seen them ever get lower than that.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

And the sad thing about that is you've not got not much in the way of totals to show for it.

Out this way the roads are a mess with all the excess road salt.  Like a dust storm on parts of Route 80.

Can't the media or someone at all question them and ask them why they're putting down all this salt?  There needs to be some accountability here.