EastonSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not a snow look Still a better year than 97/98 lol. The MJO is doing exactly what it did in December. Unfortunately we may be looking at 2nd half of month or a bit later. Not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not a snow look Past 300 hours 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not sure. I actually think models could waffle quite rapidly over next few days. MJO wreaking havoc at the moment. Agree. Depends on the strength 35 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Anthony I admire your spunk and I hope you are correct Just look at the models . We have a chance in the last week of January . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Winter is over 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Where do we start on how hostile the end of the month looks for a snowstorm here? AO positive, NAO positive, EPO positive as can be with a huge low over Alaska, WPO positive, MJO in bad phases….the only “plus” is the temporary positive PNA, no arctic cold and you have a juiced PAC jet extension into the west coast which is going to make the flow extremely progressive and deamplify the PNA in short order. Yea, that is not screaming big snowstorm here to me I agree. The forecast pattern for the end of January is hostile. Solutions such as the 6z GFS for significant snowstorms should be discounted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 With temperatures remaining below freezing, water is beginning to freeze over in the New York City suburbs. The cold will be shortlived. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 33 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Winter is over You should sign off then. But please give us the winning mid February lotto numbers before you go! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. The forecast pattern for the end of January is hostile. Solutions such as the 6z GFS for significant snowstorms should be discounted. So we never saw snow with a everything positive? Got it I guess we can all log off and come back in mid February . I will continue to track the end of the month possible storm with others who are interested. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It's not crap if we have a good timed ridge out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So we never saw snow with a everything positive? Got it I guess we can all log off and come back in mid February . I will continue to track the end of the month possible storm with others who are interested. Lighter events with the EPO+/AO+ combination being forecast. The biggest was 3”. 8”+ shown on the 6z GFS wasn’t realistic. It’s worth tracking things while having an idea of what’s plausible and what’s unlikely. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Obviously things will be unfavorable for a bit. But I don’t think I’d write off the rest of winter yet. What am I missing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's not crap if we have a good timed ridge out west. Which will rollover because the jet ext is happening just after it pops. Shades shut until 2/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 i remember a lot of folks saying “winter is over” around january 15th 2018 and look at what we got next 2 weeks do look AN though, only a tiny window around the 30th for potential snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I think many on here have never been to upstate NY or Vermont even when it is torchy in NYC metro. While yes things are bleak around much of the metro area, you can literally hop on Amtrak and ride up to Burlington or Rutland and get to Jay Peak, Killington, Stowe, etc and see that they are doing quite well and even with the upcoming warming pattern they have tons of potential there. While it sucks that this week we were be above freezing from Wednesday to Saturday night, the lower Hudson Valley will see snow making resume Sunday night if the humidity cooperates and possibly 24 hour snowmaking on Monday the 29th. Even the upcoming warm period looks much better than it did this time last year when I was riding on slush from Belleayre to Catamount for a period in midwinter. I do think NYC's snow season though may be coming to an abrupt end but I don't think the rest of the area will be similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 And finally anyone saying winter is done on January 20th should be auto banned in my opinion. That is like saying summer is over July 20th because we have a week of 70s coming up. I get it, and anyone saying winter is done, yeah you could be correct. But if it does indeed snow then you should never offer an opinion again on a weather forum because nobody on January 20th knows with 95% confidence or more that we won't see at least one snowy solution by April. I also noticed many people saying we would be buried in snow during this "favorable pattern" so again we don't know much. With all the fancy tools and knowledge we have, look at the accuracy of 7 day forecasts. Hell, how people like JB still have a job constantly calling for colder than average temperatures or extreme weather constantly, it is mind boggling. Avoid the X folks (both the website and the drug). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Following another night in the teens in New York City and some single-digits outside of New York City and Newark, tomorrow will be fair and cold. Readings will approach or reach freezing in parts of the region. Afterward, the development of an EPO+/AO+ pattern will lead to a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The expected monthly warm anomaly has increased in recent days as the development of this pattern has grown increasingly likely. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +15.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.568 today. That is the first positive reading this month. Should the AO remain positive for the remainder of this month as is indicated on the guidance, it will have been negative on 58% of days during December and January. That is consistent with historic experience. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.993 (RMM). The January 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.729 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.2° (2.5° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's not crap if we have a good timed ridge out west. 18z GFS…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 18z GFS…lol Yep storm 1 is for the interior. Then the ridge builds out west and wave 2 forms but misses ots . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Looking at radar..there seems to be some snow heading S from Ct. Seems to be drying up tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Season to date 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Def some surprise light snow showing up hopefully it makes its way 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I've had 15 inches this month after the usual trolls said winter was over in December. Keep posting it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Boston getting some decent snow, not forecasted at all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Boston getting some decent snow, not forecasted at all Euro had it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro had it I meant more of the nws sorry, I checked they didn’t have it on point and click, Upton just added flurries 7-1 for here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 25 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro had it Euro and CMC have them getting .02 qpf. Big whoop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, uofmiami said: Damn I was just posting this haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: And finally anyone saying winter is done on January 20th should be auto banned in my opinion. That is like saying summer is over July 20th because we have a week of 70s coming up. I get it, and anyone saying winter is done, yeah you could be correct. But if it does indeed snow then you should never offer an opinion again on a weather forum because nobody on January 20th knows with 95% confidence or more that we won't see at least one snowy solution by April. I also noticed many people saying we would be buried in snow during this "favorable pattern" so again we don't know much. With all the fancy tools and knowledge we have, look at the accuracy of 7 day forecasts. Hell, how people like JB still have a job constantly calling for colder than average temperatures or extreme weather constantly, it is mind boggling. Avoid the X folks (both the website and the drug). Winter is over 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Very light snow falling. Vehicles getting dusted. 12° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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