January 2024

[Allsnow]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Reminds me a bit of the big Arctic outbreak to our west in 2021. But with warmer temperatures for us and less snow.

 

The trajectory doesn’t favor coldest anomalies over us….

 

 

[jm1220]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We know we can easily get a ton of 90° days with a very high dewpoint summer. Plus we can even get a run of 100° days like we saw in 2022. But the extreme 2010 and 2011 all-time absolute highs around 105 to 108 generally require a significant drought nearby. Droughts have been tough to come by with how wet our climate has become.

Maybe with the northward Hadley cell drift over time we’re becoming more Carolinas/FL climate-like with more S wind driven heat/humidity in the summer. It’s OT but the next time we have a W wind driven heat wave we’re in big trouble. The rest of the country is heating up like this over the summer and FL just had a record hot summer, it’ll be our turn soon enough. 

[dWave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and this is normal in a big el nino-- to get more snow to the south? The same thing happened in 09-10.

 

Yeah..DC over performed these last two events too. Snowiest period in a while there and developed an actual "snowpack" for a change.

[Allsnow]

It’s been cold in KC 

 

 

[Allsnow]

NYC snow hole 

 

 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

NYC snow hole 

 

 

Not entirely accurate-5” or so for the season for the N Shore but yeah-the S Shore once again is the worst place to be for snow outside the Delmarva. That NYC and notch to cover the S Shore is an absolute snow pit since 18-19. 

[kdennis78]

30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not thinking at all 3-5" of rain in 6 hours.  Thinking several events add up, plus a little snow melt & a little frozen ground and ab eve normal antecedent flows/soil moisture.  If some of this is snow-ice (which it could be west of I95), then that slows runoff and reduces the potential. 

Got it. Just don't need any disasters.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not entirely accurate-5” or so for the season for the N Shore but yeah-the S Shore once again is the worst place to be for snow outside the Delmarva. That NYC and notch to cover the S Shore is an absolute snow pit since 18-19. 

I think this is more than just random, the same thing happened in the 80s and early and late 90s.  It's a fact of nature that NYC and surrounding area is in a really bad place for snow-- we are between two predominant tracks, one that goes north of us and the other goes south of us.  Delaware and Maryland are doing better for snow too.

1) being too close to a warming ocean (43-45F)

2) being too far west for late developing coastals

3) being too far north for typical strong el nino storms

4) being too far south for typical clippers

5) being too far east for typical west to east storms

[North and West]

Mostly due to all the excess heat being absorbed by the oceans providing more heat to be released to the atmosphere during El Niño’s. Following the first spike in 97-98, we had all the record winter warmth in the late 90s and our new warmest summer up to that time in 2005 with the hyperactive hurricane season. The next El Niño in 09-10 added more heat leading to the record warm summers in 2010 and 2011. Record blocking accompanied this pattern for several winters. Also Sandy occurred during this period. Then the ridiculous +13 December 15 with that El Niño followed by 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. So now the global temperature spike in 2023 was higher than any of the previous El Niño’s. So we wait and see what is in store with this new even higher baseline world temperatures.

This is so well said. Thanks for mentioning it. Really good analysis and practical explanation.


.

[LoboLeader1]

4F here in the Berks this AM.

[psv88]

15 in Suffolk. Deep winter out there 

[rclab]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s been cold in KC 

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

NYC snow hole 

 

 

Good morning Allsnow. My vintage postage stamp model cannot match the Nimbus and perhaps we are fortunate that the the severity of their airmass is also unmatched. I doubt the city will ever have an event as pictured in the second photo. Stay well, as always ….

 

[Allsnow]

Bizarre 

[EastonSN+]

Curiously comparing this decade to the 1980s in terms of average annual snowfall.

1980s = 19.74. Above average snowfall year count = 0. 

2020s = 19.6 (excluding this year of course). Above average snowfall winter count = 1. 

Bluewave mentioned volatility uptick in recent decades. So perhaps our snowfall remains on par, although distributed differently.

 

[EastonSN+]

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The trajectory doesn’t favor coldest anomalies over us….

 

 

Correct!

Here is the infamous December 1989 outbreak. This is where we get the cold records that places like KC had this outbreak. 

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Correct!

Here is the infamous December 1989 outbreak. This is where we get the cold records that places like KC had this outbreak. 

 

The funniest part is we STILL could not stop a storm from turning to rain with that look lol.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  62 (2006)
NYC: 62 (1951)
LGA: 61 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: -3 (1985)
NYC: 0  (1994)
LGA: 0 (1994)

Historical:

 

1863: The famous "Mud March" begins in the Fredericksburg area of Virginia.

 

1883: Yuma, Arizona, sets its all-time record low of 22 degrees. The record is tied in 1911 and again in 1937.

 

1933: Phoenix, Arizona, receives light snow between 7:55 pm and 9:25 pm.

1937 - The wettest Inaugural Day of record with 1.77 inches of rain in 24 hours. Temperatures were only in the 30s as Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworm in for his second term. (David Ludlum)

1943 - Strange vertical antics took place in the Black Hills of South Dakota. While the temperature at Deadwood was a frigid 16 degrees below zero, the town of Lead, just a mile and a half away, but 600 feet higher in elevation, reported a balmy 52 degree reading. (David Ludlum)

1954 - The temperature at Rogers Pass, MT, plunged to 70 degrees below zero to establish a new record for the continental U.S. (David Ludlum)

 

1954: Rogers Pass, Montana, plunged to 70 degrees below zero to establish a new record for the lower 48 states.

1978 - A paralyzing "Nor'easter" produced a record 21 inches of snow at Boston, 15 to 20 inches in Rhode Island, and one to two feet of snow in Pennsylvania. Winds along the coast of Connecticut gusted to 70 mph. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Gale force winds lingered along the northern Atlantic coast in the wake of a holiday weekend storm. High winds along the eastern slopes of the Northern Rockies gusted to 67 mph at Livingston MT, and high winds in southern California gusted to 70 mph near San Bernardino. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the Upper Midwest produced heavy snow and gale force winds. Up to 27.5 inches of snow was reported along the Lake Superior shoreline of Michigan, with 22 inches at Marquette. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The temperature in the Washington D.C. area warmed into the lower 50s for the Presidential Inauguration during the late morning hours, before gusty northwest winds ushered in colder air that afternoon. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - While heavy thunderstorm rains drenched the Central Gulf Coast States, with 4.23 inches reported at Centreville AL in 24 hours, unseasonably warm weather continued across Florida. Five cities in Florida reported record high temperatures for the date. Tampa FL equalled their record high for January of 85 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

oh god, I found 9 ticks on my clothes or in my hair last year and bought this pesticide spray to use, a deer crashed into my pool  and died and ever since then the tick population boomed.  I only went to that house once every 2 weeks but every time I went there I found a tick on me and this was long after that deer had been removed.

is there any way to permanently remove ticks so they get exterminated and can't exist on a given piece of land anymore?

we've seen ticks as early as February too, like in 2018 when it was 80 degrees.

Yes!  I saw two different kinds of ticks, one was a very small black one and then a larger brown one which was the longhorn tick.

Nine of them on my  clothes or in my hair after that deer landed in my pool on my property in the Poconos and ever since then I started using that pesticide spray on all my clothes so much of it that it actually burned my skin.  When the weather got cold finally the ticks disappeared.

 

Poconos are also a hot spot now. Same as central MA. Any time it is above 40 for a period of time the adult ticks will become active again. Never used to happen in the winter but now we pretty much see them throughout. Look at next week. Plenty of 40+ degree days with warm overnight lows. The deer are basically the singles bar for ticks. They mate on the deer. Mice harbor the diseases and act as the reservoir hosts. If you can decrease the deer you decrease the tick abundance. Best pesticide for clothes is permethrin. That stuff is excellent and I highly recommend that with tick checks still. Remember it is the tick you don’t find that will give you disease. As much as I don’t like using pesticides on my lawn, I do use it in the spring to help keep the ticks out of the yard so my son can play.  

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this is more than just random, the same thing happened in the 80s and early and late 90s.  It's a fact of nature that NYC and surrounding area is in a really bad place for snow-- we are between two predominant tracks, one that goes north of us and the other goes south of us.  Delaware and Maryland are doing better for snow too.

1) being too close to a warming ocean (43-45F)

2) being too far west for late developing coastals

3) being too far north for typical strong el nino storms

4) being too far south for typical clippers

5) being too far east for typical west to east storms

you are over analyzing it. There’s not enough natural elements in New York City. It’s too large of a concrete jungle. that does not do well in a warming climate.

The things you mention apply to the coastal areas of Long Island just fine. But there’s a reason why the rest of the region has snow and there’s a giant hole over New York City and it’s called overdevelopment that holds heat and a rapidly warming climate.

Frankly, I expect it to continue. All those warm overnights ( plus 10 to 15 from the surrounding areas) were leading to this.

 

I would love if somebody had some data from China or some other tightly packed Asian countries with huge cities to see if something similar is going on there.

Long story short, I don’t think this is a natural phenomenon, but a man-made phenomenon interacting with a man-made warming situation. It just doesn’t get cold in New York City for any prolonged period of time anymore and it’s not gonna snow under those circumstances.

 

But if you go 20 miles north or east or west or even south, you see much less of an example of this

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

you are over analyzing it. There’s not enough natural elements in New York City. It’s too large of a concrete jungle. that does not do well in a warming climate.

The things you mention apply to the coastal areas of Long Island just fine. But there’s a reason why the rest of the region has snow and there’s a giant hole over New York City and it’s called overdevelopment that holds heat and a rapidly warming climate.

Frankly, I expect it to continue. All those warm overnights ( plus 10 to 15 from the surrounding areas) were leading to this.

 

I would love if somebody had some data from China or some other tightly packed Asian countries with huge cities to see if something similar is going on there.

Long story short, I don’t think this is a natural phenomenon, but a man-made phenomenon interacting with a man-made warming situation. It just doesn’t get cold in New York City for any prolonged period of time anymore and it’s not gonna snow under those circumstances.

 

But if you go 20 miles north or east or west or even south, you see much less of an example of this

Yes but it also applies to Nassau County aka Western Long Island which is also overdeveloped.  Snowfall amounts go up as you head east to Suffolk County because they are closer to late developing Miller B tracks. A prime example is how much more snow they get in March than we do.

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Poconos are also a hot spot now. Same as central MA. Any time it is above 40 for a period of time the adult ticks will become active again. Never used to happen in the winter but now we pretty much see them throughout. Look at next week. Plenty of 40+ degree days with warm overnight lows. The deer are basically the singles bar for ticks. They mate on the deer. Mice harbor the diseases and act as the reservoir hosts. If you can decrease the deer you decrease the tick abundance. Best pesticide for clothes is permethrin. That stuff is excellent and I highly recommend that with tick checks still. Remember it is the tick you don’t find that will give you disease. As much as I don’t like using pesticides on my lawn, I do use it in the spring to help keep the ticks out of the yard so my son can play.  

Permethrin is what I have for my clothes.

I just wish we had a pesticide for deer lol, the damn things love to jump over my fence.

I have read that opossums have a big appetite for deer.

I hope the pesticides you use are safer than what I've read about, which can be bad for children and for pets (glyphosate sprayed parks carry warnings on them to keep children and pets away.)

 

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Permethrin is what I have for my clothes.

I just wish we had a pesticide for deer lol, the damn things love to jump over my fence.

I have read that opossums have a big appetite for deer.

I hope the pesticides you use are safer than what I've read about, which can be bad for children and for pets (glyphosate sprayed parks carry warnings on them to keep children and pets away.)

 

all that stuff causes cancer. you’re almost better off with the ticks

[WestBabylonWeather]

People are torn on the organic thing. But why eat pesticide if you have the option for organic. 

[ILoveWinter]

37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

you are over analyzing it. There’s not enough natural elements in New York City. It’s too large of a concrete jungle. that does not do well in a warming climate.

The things you mention apply to the coastal areas of Long Island just fine. But there’s a reason why the rest of the region has snow and there’s a giant hole over New York City and it’s called overdevelopment that holds heat and a rapidly warming climate.

Frankly, I expect it to continue. All those warm overnights ( plus 10 to 15 from the surrounding areas) were leading to this.

 

I would love if somebody had some data from China or some other tightly packed Asian countries with huge cities to see if something similar is going on there.

Long story short, I don’t think this is a natural phenomenon, but a man-made phenomenon interacting with a man-made warming situation. It just doesn’t get cold in New York City for any prolonged period of time anymore and it’s not gonna snow under those circumstances.

 

But if you go 20 miles north or east or west or even south, you see much less of an example of this

True the concrete jungle of nyc does impact snowfall and is a factor into why it is in the hole but notice that it extends 30 miles or so north and west, areas that have a lot of vegetation/forests. So unfortunately, the tracks of the past two storms were just not favorable for areas in this area/hole. Bad luck.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Poconos are also a hot spot now. Same as central MA. Any time it is above 40 for a period of time the adult ticks will become active again. Never used to happen in the winter but now we pretty much see them throughout. Look at next week. Plenty of 40+ degree days with warm overnight lows. The deer are basically the singles bar for ticks. They mate on the deer. Mice harbor the diseases and act as the reservoir hosts. If you can decrease the deer you decrease the tick abundance. Best pesticide for clothes is permethrin. That stuff is excellent and I highly recommend that with tick checks still. Remember it is the tick you don’t find that will give you disease. As much as I don’t like using pesticides on my lawn, I do use it in the spring to help keep the ticks out of the yard so my son can play.  

I've been bitten by lone star ticks a few times. Always on look out for meat allergy to develop. I carry an epi pen. I've also read to look at acorns; mice make nests of the shells; if there are a lot of acorns, this is bad for us. Deer are facing chronic wasting problems and they may be decreasing, ( and already are ) in parts of the country. You can buy treated clothes, not sure how long it lasts, but the permethrin wash that you can add really smells. I've sent the ticks out a few times and docs are happy to take a copay, but they say that only covers the tick you know about. So its probably better to get bloodwork  if you can; because I have risk factors I am put on doxycycline whenever I get bitten.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

True the concrete jungle of nyc does impact snowfall and is a factor into why it is in the hole but notice that it extends 30 miles or so north and west, areas that have a lot of vegetation/forests. So unfortunately, the tracks of the past two storms were just not favorable for areas in this area/hole. Bad luck.

But the first storm back on the 6th when much of the area was getting an initial 1 to 3" before the changeover, EWR and central park were a degree too warm to accumulate and ended up with next to nothing. LI of course didn't do well either but that was more because of the setup and track. In these borderline temperature events the urban heat island does play a part

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

But the first storm back on the 6th when much of the area was getting an initial 1 to 3" before the changeover, EWR and central park were a degree too warm to accumulate and ended up with next to nothing. LI of course didn't do well either but that was more because of the setup and track. In these borderline temperature events the urban heat island does play a part

Yes agree that on the very first one it was due to the UHI effect. But the last two was a combo of UHI and track which is why even areas 30 miles north and west didn't cash in. 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

People are torn on the organic thing. But why eat pesticide if you have the option for organic. 

Extensive studies have shown little benefit to organic foods, and a lot of them really aren't organic. I learned this in fisheries; a lot of the stuff for sale in markets is not what the label says it is. Recently I have seen porgies labeled Dorado, farm raised hybrid bass labeled wild striped bass ( illegal in NJ ) and tilapia labeled as flounder. And one reason you'll see " wild caught" is because that just means it was caught in a net; it could be a farmed salmon that's escaped. No one knows unless they break out a DNA test. So just eat what looks good in moderation and don't worry about it. Avoid smoking ( everything including pot, which is not, as some believe, some miracle health elixir; clear studies show long term cognitive decline with use ) and alcohol. But if you want to smoke and drink, have at it. Whatever gets you through the day. within reason, is my philosophy. We're all headed to the same conclusion.

[psv88]

52 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

you are over analyzing it. There’s not enough natural elements in New York City. It’s too large of a concrete jungle. that does not do well in a warming climate.

The things you mention apply to the coastal areas of Long Island just fine. But there’s a reason why the rest of the region has snow and there’s a giant hole over New York City and it’s called overdevelopment that holds heat and a rapidly warming climate.

Frankly, I expect it to continue. All those warm overnights ( plus 10 to 15 from the surrounding areas) were leading to this.

 

I would love if somebody had some data from China or some other tightly packed Asian countries with huge cities to see if something similar is going on there.

Long story short, I don’t think this is a natural phenomenon, but a man-made phenomenon interacting with a man-made warming situation. It just doesn’t get cold in New York City for any prolonged period of time anymore and it’s not gonna snow under those circumstances.

 

But if you go 20 miles north or east or west or even south, you see much less of an example of this

The south shore of Long Island is the worst of both worlds. Southern Nassau and SW Suffolk are highly developed as well and have their own heat island. In addition, they have near zero elevation and right on the warm Altantic. Worst possible combination for consistent snowfall. 
 

north shore elevation between 150-350 feet, much less developed, further north and gets sound enhancement. In marginal storms it makes a massive difference. I do agree that heat island also plays a large role even in the burbs 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

all that stuff causes cancer. you’re almost better off with the ticks

Lyme damages the brain and cases often go undiagnosed. It can cause dementia; Kris Kristofferson was diagnosed with dementia and it turned out to be Lyme after a long investigation; not sure how reversible that is, especially in the elderly. Some of the sunscreens cause issues as well, but melanoma is worse. Risk benefit....if you can avoid the ticks great, but that is getting hard to do. My dogs bring them in and I get them in the park right in the concrete jungle. I mean the microfibers in our clothes are also suspect, especially anything water repellent. It's pretty hard to avoid toxins, many of us have PFAS in our drinking water. You can use bottled but who knows what's in it right? And I'm not even going to get into air particulates and microplastics....