January 2024

[the_other_guy]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

you might have a point there, I could see them doing this lol

 

It was icy as hell last night. there was a fine layer of new snow on top of all the wet roads that froze.

The salt was needed and appreciated by 5pm haha

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Where was the Bermuda High when these two coastals were going out to see though

Didn’t have time for the pieces to line up correctly for a big snow for us since the Pacific flow has been so fast with frequent kickers coming into the West Coast.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It was icy as hell last night. there was a fine layer of new snow on top of all the wet roads that froze.

The salt was needed and appreciated by 5pm haha

It looks like they put sand down here instead.  Everything looks like a chocolatey brown here today on the roads lol.

Makes me yearn for hot cocoa lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Didn’t have time for the pieces to line up correctly for a big snow for us since the Pacific flow has been so fast with frequent kickers coming into the West Coast.

It looks like the pattern will be either mild and rainy or cold and dry for this winter then.  The big el nino didn't make any difference over last winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s easier for areas to our south with lower snowfall averages to get to normal snowfall for a set date. All it takes is one storm. 
 

 

and this is normal in a big el nino-- to get more snow to the south? The same thing happened in 09-10.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Absolutely beautiful out this morning:

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s easier for areas to our south with lower snowfall averages to get to normal snowfall for a set date. All it takes is one storm. 
 

 

Phl is not Nashville and a hour drive from nyc 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It looks like the pattern will be either mild and rainy or cold and dry for this winter then.  The big el nino didn't make any difference over last winter.

 

My guess is that the background pattern was colder for 15-16 once winter got going in January coming off the 09-10 to 14-15 colder winter period. Plus the Pacific actually cooperated wit the -AO back then through Valentines Day. That 15-16 heat release from the oceans rose the baseline temperatures. Now the heat release from this El Niño is even more record breaking than the last one. So it will be interesting to see what two big temperature jumps within 10 years does. 

[LoboLeader1]

51 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I haven't looked close, but I think its going to be messy wintry west of I95 starting later next weekend, despite above normal temps (colder part of winter).  So yes, we could get to 60F mid or late workweek--- see attached ensemble temps for  central NJ We should lose all the snow south of I80 by next weekend. North of I80 it gets complicated by ice.  Minor flooding could result on a few small streams by next weekend??? but nothing like we had in early January.  Its the following week (late Sunday the 28th-31st) that I think gets interesting regarding all sorts of possibilities. 

Pac jet pushing across the country next week, leaving coast to coast warmth. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the background pattern was colder for 15-16 once winter got going in January coming off the 09-10 to 14-15 colder winter period. Plus the Pacific actually cooperated wit the -AO back then through Valentines Day. That 15-16 heat release from the oceans rose the baseline temperatures. Now the heat release from this El Niño is even more record breaking than the last one. So it will be interesting to see what two big temperature jumps within 10 years does. 

I'd also like to see what happens this summer, traditionally don't we have a scorching hot summer going from an el nino to a la nina (see Summer of 1983, Summer of 1995, Summer of 2005 and Summer of 2010)?

And la nina winters after el nino winters are usually snowy too-- so maybe next winter will be snowier?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Pac jet really pushing across the country next week, leaving coast to coast warmth. 

This continent is way too narrow, maybe if we were as big as Eurasia is, an ocean that far to our west wouldn't mess up our weather so much.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the background pattern was colder for 15-16 once winter got going in January coming off the 09-10 to 14-15 colder winter period. Plus the Pacific actually cooperated wit the -AO back then through Valentines Day. That 15-16 heat release from the oceans rose the baseline temperatures. Now the heat release from this El Niño is even more record breaking than the last one. So it will be interesting to see what two big temperature jumps within 10 years does. 

Could the extra heat also be because we are in a solar maximum like we were in the early 90s?

This has been all the talk because of the upcoming total solar eclipse in April.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Phl is not Nashville and a hour drive from nyc 

It's still south of us though.  More than an hour-- it takes me 3 hours to get to the Poconos.

[wdrag]

5 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Pac jet pushing across the country next week, leaving coast to coast warmth. 

Yes... but northern stream seems to deflect some of the warmth south at times next week in the Northeast USA. . EPS has an interesting ice signal next Tuesday night ne PA-se NYS with at least two of the global ensembles 1-4" snow I90 north.  

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Could the extra heat also be because we are in a solar maximum like we were in the early 90s?

This has been all the talk because of the upcoming total solar eclipse in April.

 

Mostly due to all the excess heat being absorbed by the oceans providing more heat to be released to the atmosphere during El Niño’s. Following the first spike in 97-98, we had all the record winter warmth in the late 90s and our new warmest summer up to that time in 2005 with the hyperactive hurricane season. The next El Niño in 09-10 added more heat leading to the record warm summers in 2010 and 2011. Record blocking accompanied this pattern for several winters. Also Sandy occurred during this period. Then the ridiculous +13 December 15 with that El Niño followed by 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. So now the global temperature spike in 2023 was higher than any of the previous El Niño’s. So we wait and see what is in store with this new even higher baseline world temperatures.

[SACRUS]

 

15 here with mostly clear skies.  Coldest of the season this weekend but dry. Moderate 1/22-23 before much warmer 1/24 - 1/28 - could push some records.  Moderate back towards normal by momth end and open of Feb.

 

 

[JustinRP37]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

say what... they say snowless warm winters help keep tick populations in check? In my experience tick populations always boom after snowless winters (like last winter)

 

 

Last year was a moderate to low season for blacklegged ticks (aka deer ticks) across the region. Our lab does surveillance across the lower Hudson Valley. In the past few decades too we have also seen far fewer ticks carrying the Lyme spirochete bacteria as well. However to the north that number is increasing. That said across the island the Lone Star tick has been increasing in numbers. That tick is also a more aggressive feeder. Then we also have the Asian longhorned tick, which is an invasive tick, spreading throughout the region. So it is a mixed bag. 

[ForestHillWx]

12 degrees here; hit 9 last week.

So not my coldest of this winter, but refreshing to say the least. 

[SACRUS]

Deepest cold west

 

[dmillz25]

Down to 17 

[Volcanic Winter]

I made it to 15. Surprisingly not my coldest season to date, which is 14. 

I hadn’t paid much attention to forecasted temps but I assumed I’d break that with the snowcover everywhere. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Deepest cold west

 

Reminds me a bit of the big Arctic outbreak to our west in 2021. But with warmer temperatures for us and less snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Last year was a moderate to low season for blacklegged ticks (aka deer ticks) across the region. Our lab does surveillance across the lower Hudson Valley. In the past few decades too we have also seen far fewer ticks carrying the Lyme spirochete bacteria as well. However to the north that number is increasing. That said across the island the Lone Star tick has been increasing in numbers. That tick is also a more aggressive feeder. Then we also have the Asian longhorned tick, which is an invasive tick, spreading throughout the region. So it is a mixed bag. 

oh god, I found 9 ticks on my clothes or in my hair last year and bought this pesticide spray to use, a deer crashed into my pool  and died and ever since then the tick population boomed.  I only went to that house once every 2 weeks but every time I went there I found a tick on me and this was long after that deer had been removed.

is there any way to permanently remove ticks so they get exterminated and can't exist on a given piece of land anymore?

we've seen ticks as early as February too, like in 2018 when it was 80 degrees.

Yes!  I saw two different kinds of ticks, one was a very small black one and then a larger brown one which was the longhorn tick.

Nine of them on my  clothes or in my hair after that deer landed in my pool on my property in the Poconos and ever since then I started using that pesticide spray on all my clothes so much of it that it actually burned my skin.  When the weather got cold finally the ticks disappeared.

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Mostly due to all the excess heat being absorbed by the oceans providing more heat to be released to the atmosphere during El Niño’s. Following the first spike in 97-98, we had all the record winter warmth in the late 90s and our new warmest summer up to that time in 2005 with the hyperactive hurricane season. The next El Niño in 09-10 added more heat leading to the record warm summers in 2010 and 2011. Record blocking accompanied this pattern for several winters. Also Sandy occurred during this period. Then the ridiculous +13 December 15 with that El Niño followed by 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. So now the global temperature spike in 2023 was higher than any of the previous El Niño’s. So we wait and see what is in store with this new even higher baseline world temperatures.

This is why I think we're in store for a scorching summer with 30+ 90 degree days and 100+ days finally right to the coast, and then we could even have a winter with more snow this winter and last winter combined (not saying much for the winter I know lol)

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Down to 10 this morning. Earlier in week we got down to 9.8

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why I think we're in store for a scorching summer with 30+ 90 degree days and 100+ days finally right to the coast, and then we could even have a winter with more snow this winter and last winter combined (not saying much for the winter I know lol)

 

We know we can easily get a ton of 90° days with a very high dewpoint summer. Plus we can even get a run of 100° days like we saw in 2022. But the extreme 2010 and 2011 all-time absolute highs around 105 to 108 generally require a significant drought nearby. Droughts have been tough to come by with how wet our climate has become.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We know we can easily get a ton of 90° days with a very high dewpoint summer. Plus we can even get a run of 100° days like we saw in 2022. But the extreme 2010 and 2011 all-time absolute highs around 105 to 108 generally require a significant drought nearby. Droughts have been tough to come by with how wet our climate has become.

I think we can hit 100 at JFK like we did in 2012 (and we came close in some other years more recently when we hit 99-- I think that was in 2017 and 2018?)

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently partly sunny with snow flurries. 12°

[kdennis78]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I haven't looked close, but I think its going to be messy wintry west of I95 starting later next weekend, despite above normal temps (colder part of winter).  So yes, we could get to 60F mid or late workweek--- see attached ensemble temps for  central NJ We should lose all the snow south of I80 by next weekend. North of I80 it gets complicated by ice.  Minor flooding could result on a few small streams by next weekend??? but nothing like we had in early January.  Its the following week (late Sunday the 28th-31st) that I think gets interesting regarding all sorts of possibilities. 

Uh oh. Like 3"-5" of rain in 6 hours with a cutter or coastal storm interesting? My yard is clay soil and nowhere for water to seep down anymore. Simply can't handle that.  Not near a river thankfully.

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, kdennis78 said:

Uh oh. Like 3"-5" of rain in 6 hours with a cutter or coastal storm interesting? My yard is clay soil and nowhere for water to seep down anymore. Simply can't handle that.  Not near a river thankfully.

Not thinking at all 3-5" of rain in 6 hours.  Thinking several events add up, plus a little snow melt & a little frozen ground and ab eve normal antecedent flows/soil moisture.  If some of this is snow-ice (which it could be west of I95), then that slows runoff and reduces the potential.