tmagan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Well NYC is still alive to re break last winters record, don’t think it’ll happen though Each day Central Park sets a new record for most consecutive calendar days without two inches of snow. If Central Park doesn't get 7.7 inches of snow the rest of the winter, it will mark the first time in its history with consecutive winters under ten inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Gfs !! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Jersey Andrew said: Don, do you still see evidence of a cold and snowy February for the Northeast? Models are suggesting this pacific jet extension could lead to hostile conditions for winter weather especially during first half of February. Following the upcoming warmup after this weekend, we'll need to wait until after the first or second weeks of February for more opportunities for cold and snow. Following the jet extension, if the North Pacific Jet shifts Equatorward, that would favor a return to cold. If, however, the North Pacific Jet remains or shifts further Poleward, that would potentially delay the return of cold. Most of the guidance suggests that the first week of February will at least start mild. ENSO climatology associated with strong El Niño event favors cooler weather especially in the days leading up to and going beyond mid-month. Given ENSO climatology, I suspect that there will be some additional opportunities for snow in February, even if there is no extreme cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs !! Heat advisory? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: Heat advisory? Archambault event maybe ? Models are showing a huge ridge out west towards the end of the month . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Gfs !!I love your enthusiasm, but don’t these models always play these insane games?(I don’t understand how to read the models like being unable to read music, but I know a good song regardless). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2.1 YTD after todays .4 for Knyc least snowiest winter still on track 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 hours ago, wdrag said: No more threads anticipated in January with ice-snow next week probably I84 corridor northward. Monitoring for 2+" qpf the last 10 days of the month pushing us up toward top 10 January prep and also renewed minor flooding in NJ but looong ways off to be sure. Focus today on whatever occurs in the snow thread. I sure hope Feb produces. Looks somewhat favorable to me. EC weeklies dated the 18th are focusing in on the traditional Feb 5-15 period. Fingers crossed. 2" QPF over last part of January- Is that a total or are we gonna get a series of coastal and cutter storms that are going to overwhelm us living on saturated ground? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 2.1 YTD after todays .4 for Knyc least snowiest winter still on track Incorrect. I forgot the .2 before Monday which ties the least snowiest winter of last year. Sigh 2.3 YTD Knyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 31 minutes ago, North and West said: I love your enthusiasm, but don’t these models always play these insane games? (I don’t understand how to read the models like being unable to read music, but I know a good song regardless) . Yes in the long range but it's a chance before we warm up again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, tmagan said: Each day Central Park sets a new record for most consecutive calendar days without two inches of snow. If Central Park doesn't get 7.7 inches of snow the rest of the winter, it will mark the first time in its history with consecutive winters under ten inches of snow. JFK has had two consecutive seasons with under 10" of snow though correct? And two seasons out of three? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: it's almost like someone told them it's over after today and they dumped the rest of the supply to get rid of it... you might have a point there, I could see them doing this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Strong Nino March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal even so there could be a fluke March storm like March 1998 had. Not that anyone should ever expect such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Thanks for all this. I was laughed at for suggesting we put way too much emphasis on the MJO when there are plenty of other factors to look into. The MJO plays a role, but like everything in environmental science and meteorology there are millions of things going on all at once so we can never pick just one variable and say this is the be all end all. Just like the people that say snowless warm winters help tick populations, we now know that is not true. say what... they say snowless warm winters help keep tick populations in check? In my experience tick populations always boom after snowless winters (like last winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: even so there could be a fluke March storm like March 1998 had. Not that anyone should ever expect such an event. It also hit close to 80 a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 35 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It also hit close to 80 a couple days. Yep after the snow we had a week of 80+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: JFK has had two consecutive seasons with under 10" of snow though correct? And two seasons out of three? Yes, a couple of times actually. They actually went three out of four seasons under ten inches from 1994 - 1995 to 1997 - 1998. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, tmagan said: Yes, a couple of times actually. They actually went three out of four seasons under ten inches from 1994 - 1995 to 1997 - 1998. So that can only mean a 95-96 repeat in the next 2 years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So that can only mean a 95-96 repeat in the next 2 years Unfortunately some of us were expecting a 02-03 repeat after last season was so much like 01-02 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The closing 7-10 days of January will feature an EPO+/AO+ pattern. The latest EPS shows 500 mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies that are as close to a textbook case of what one has historically seen from such a pattern: The ECMWF Weeklies: January 22-29: This is a high confidence idea that the closing week to 10 days of January will be warmer than normal across most of North America except for Alaska, parts of the Southwest, and parts of Mexico. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 We watch a storm at the end of the month . CMC and GFS continues to be interesting. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Most of the time in late January when we have a 1040mb high to our north, it’s a good wintry threat pattern. But this time it’s being countered by an almost equally strong Bermuda high. Just goes to show how many challenges our recent winter patterns have been dealing with. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Most of the time in late January when we have a 1040mb high to our north, it’s a good wintry threat pattern. But this time it’s being countered by an almost equally strong Bermuda high. Just goes to show how many challenges our recent winter patterns have been dealing with. Where was the Bermuda High when these two coastals were going out to see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 11 hours ago, kdennis78 said: 2" QPF over last part of January- Is that a total or are we gonna get a series of coastal and cutter storms that are going to overwhelm us living on saturated ground? I haven't looked close, but I think its going to be messy wintry west of I95 starting later next weekend, despite above normal temps (colder part of winter). So yes, we could get to 60F mid or late workweek--- see attached ensemble temps for central NJ We should lose all the snow south of I80 by next weekend. North of I80 it gets complicated by ice. Minor flooding could result on a few small streams by next weekend??? but nothing like we had in early January. Its the following week (late Sunday the 28th-31st) that I think gets interesting regarding all sorts of possibilities. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It depends where they are talking about naturally. We are still at around 2-2.5 inches of snow for the entire season in the city and close by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s easier for areas to our south with lower snowfall averages to get to normal snowfall for a set date. All it takes is one storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 NY subforum thread considerations: Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice or flooding qpf. Just too far away to have much consensus although for now, most of the snow ice is ensembled inland from I95, despite some op members on the coast. My interest is combined with additional qpf by the end of the Jan adding up to between 1-2.5". If its only 1", Allentown will be top 10 rainfall in January 100 years record keeping. Allentown already top 1/3rd of monthly snowfall. Allentown is western fringe of the subforum but gives an idea of distant interior. Ensembles already have a small chance of a few small streams "minor" flooding by next weekend (I consider small stream minor flooding somewhat routine-as opposed to mainstem minor which is less frequent and a bigger deal) with snow melt, qpf and that does not take into account potential qpf beyond the 28th. No action on my part for a day or three. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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