bluewave Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I just don’t think we will get long favorable windows in a strong Nino imo. NYC missed the first event to the north(white rain to start), under 2 in the second event with higher totals all around and a miss south with the 3rd event that dropped 4-8 in DCA. I just think the city locally was just unlucky not to get more 15-16 may have been an exception. Some spots had nearly 40” of snow from late January into early February. Then the first below zero reading in NYC on Valentines Day since 94. We would always find ways to score KU events from 09-10 to 17-18. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: 15-16 may have been an exception. Some spots had nearly 40” of snow from late January into early February. Then the first below zero reading in NYC on Valentines Day. since 94. We would always find ways to score KU events from 09-10 to 17-18. I think we get one more favorable look towards the end February. We probably start warm in February then transition to -pna 2/3 week then favorable look to end the month… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Love Cool but I’m not as enthused. I hope he is correct We need something man . Really snowstarved . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: We need something man . Really snowstarved . Doesn't work that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Well NYC is still alive to re break last winters record, don’t think it’ll happen though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Ensembles....day 10 on OP is fantasyC’mon… everyone knows second week of April will be 45° and drizzly.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, North and West said: C’mon… everyone knows second week of April will be 45° and drizzly. . i hope we get a chilly spring... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, North and West said: C’mon… everyone knows second week of April will be 45° and drizzly. . that we can almost guarantee, a -NAO come 4/1 that lasts for 6 weeks lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Huge PNA ridge out west on the euro at 240. That's our next threat. Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good luck you make me laugh too. what do you think it’s just gonna be 50 for the rest of the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: you make me laugh too. what do you think it’s just gonna be 50 for the rest of the winter? Yes he thinks winter is over and it can't snow anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: you make me laugh too. what do you think it’s just gonna be 50 for the rest of the winter? that prediction has been more right than wrong the last 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: you make me laugh too. what do you think it’s just gonna be 50 for the rest of the winter? 12Z GFS thinks so one soaking rain event starting mid week after another through first week of Feb..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think we get one more favorable look towards the end February. We probably start warm in February then transition to -pna 2/3 week then favorable look to end the month… step down process right ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes he thinks winter is over and it can't snow anymore Here we are on 1/20…..how much snow has NYC had since November 1st, total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think we get one more favorable look towards the end February. We probably start warm in February then transition to -pna 2/3 week then favorable look to end the month… 2005 had those 3 nice events in a 10 day span to end Feb start March or maybe like 92 we wait til mid march 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS thinks so one soaking rain event starting mid week after another through first week of Feb..... don’t latch onto long range models and run with them. And don’t latch onto people having an agenda on this site and run with them. The rest of January looks hostile, and then it looks to ease as we go into early February. But its mid winter and anything is possible. With certainty wont be warm thru 3/1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Here we are on 1/20…..how much snow has NYC had since November 1st, total? What does that have to do anything? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 If we’re throwing away 10-14 days at least in our biggest snow climo time of the year that’s never good. Hopefully it’s with fewer raging cutters with coastal and river floods and we can get calmer warmer weather you can somewhat enjoy outside. We can still get big snow late in Feb but after 2/20 or so it gets harder, especially into March unless you’re inland and elevated. Nino March also tends to be warm. If the Pacific is roaring back into a frenzy that’s enough for me to close the shades. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Here we are on 1/20…..how much snow has NYC had since November 1st, total? it’s a shit winter no doubt. But to say to the guy that there can’t be a ridge out west three weeks from now is totally ridiculous. and to write off the next 60 days is totally absurd. When you get to 3/7 and you see two weeks of warm weather, then you write off the winter. right now we’re still in the game and even a mediocre winter gives its chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS thinks so one soaking rain event starting mid week after another through first week of Feb..... At least we'll get rid of all the excessive road salt. What a mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, MANDA said: At least we'll get rid of all the excessive road salt. What a mess. it's almost like someone told them it's over after today and they dumped the rest of the supply to get rid of it... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: don’t latch onto long range models and run with them. And don’t latch onto people having an agenda on this site and run with them. The rest of January looks hostile, and then it looks to ease as we go into early February. But its mid winter and anything is possible. With certainty wont be warm thru 3/1 I believe the 12Z GFS through early Feb - no agenda here.....support comes from the current MJO phases and Upton has rain latter half of next week for a few days flooding on the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Lol at his post. We aren’t just magically turning arctic cold again like flipping a light switch after that huge AK vortex and PAC jet extension floods all of Canada and the CONUS with Pacific maritime air. In 2 weeks we are already into February You missed my point then. It was a “we’re kind of screwed” post. There’s still no reason we can’t rebuild a pattern by end of Feb into march though. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The more things change…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 24 minutes ago, Heisy said: You missed my point then. It was a “we’re kind of screwed” post. There’s still no reason we can’t rebuild a pattern by end of Feb into march though. . Who is saying February is done ? Why are we spiking the ball on January 19? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: If we’re throwing away 10-14 days at least in our biggest snow climo time of the year that’s never good. Hopefully it’s with fewer raging cutters with coastal and river floods and we can get calmer warmer weather you can somewhat enjoy outside. We can still get big snow late in Feb but after 2/20 or so it gets harder, especially into March unless you’re inland and elevated. Nino March also tends to be warm. If the Pacific is roaring back into a frenzy that’s enough for me to close the shades. Strong Nino March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Here we are on 1/20…..how much snow has NYC had since November 1st, 2022 total? Fixed your post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Through 1 pm, snowfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 1.3" Baltimore: 4.1" New York City: 0.1" Newark: 0.6" Philadelphia: 2.9" Washington, DC: 3.3" There were some 6.0" amounts. Areas receiving 6.0" of snow included Clayton, Dover, and Middletown in Delaware. Following the storm, the temperature will fall into the teens in New York City tonight and again tomorrow night. Outlying areas could experience some single-digit cold. Tomorrow will be fair but very cold with the mercury struggling to reach the lower and middle 20s across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Overall, this coming weekend will see this winter's coldest readings so far. Beyond that, the development of an EPO+/AO+ pattern will lead to a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +20.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.535 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.729 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.667 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.8° (2.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Through 1 pm, snowfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 1.3" Baltimore: 4.1" New York City: 0.1" Newark: 0.6" Philadelphia: 2.9" Washington, DC: 3.3" There were some 6.0" amounts. Areas receiving 6.0" of snow included Clayton, Dover, and Middletown in Delaware. Following the storm, the temperature will fall into the teens in New York City tonight and again tomorrow night. Outlying areas could experience some single-digit cold. Tomorrow will be fair but very cold with the mercury struggling to reach the lower and middle 20s across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Overall, this coming weekend will see this winter's coldest readings so far. Beyond that, the development of an EPO+/AO+ pattern will lead to a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +20.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.535 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.729 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.667 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.8° (2.1° above normal). Don, do you still see evidence of a cold and snowy February for the Northeast? Models are suggesting this pacific jet extension could lead to hostile conditions for winter weather especially during first half of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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