January 2024

[North and West]

Saturday afternoon through Tuesday look sunny and dry

Good car washing weather.


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[North and West]

Y'all just have the wrong approach and need to rejigger your expectations. If you go into it thinking that it's not going to snow then it's doubly exciting when it does. Appreciate how much $ you're saving on heating and how much strain you're not putting on your back shoveling. 

Especially if you’re north of 40.


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[vegan_edible]

op run looks like hot garbage but the ens. isn't looking too bad. gfs op been out to lunch for a while now, lets look to see how the ec op run looks coupled with the ensemble

[Stormlover74]

35 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

op run looks like hot garbage but the ens. isn't looking too bad. gfs op been out to lunch for a while now, lets look to see how the ec op run looks coupled with the ensemble

Euro is luke warm garbage

[White Gorilla]

58 minutes ago, North and West said:

I love your enthusiasm, but I think we all know it’s coming just in time for an April that’s going to look and feel just like today.


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I can think we can mostly expect 40s rain from now through April with some sunny breaks into the 50s in between.  I have zero expectations for winter weather.  If it comes, I will say wow.  

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

I can think we can mostly expect 40s rain from now through April with some sunny breaks into the 50s in between.  I have zero expectations for winter weather.  If it comes, I will say wow.  

Yea this is my approach now, better for my snow loving sanity 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Y'all just have the wrong approach and need to rejigger your expectations. If you go into it thinking that it's not going to snow then it's doubly exciting when it does. Appreciate how much $ you're saving on heating and how much strain you're not putting on your back shoveling. 

I just want it not to rain or to be cloudy.  Starting next weekend looks like it should be good for that.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Snowless back to back Januarys would be tough to pull off

Jan 31 to 34 was the worst stretch with 4 straight <1" at central park

that makes it even more amazing that February 1934 may have been the greatest wintry month in the city's history.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Snowless back to back Januarys would be tough to pull off

Jan 31 to 34 was the worst stretch with 4 straight <1" at central park

I think we have an excellent shot at it. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The El Nino winters that had turnarounds after a completely snowless November/December didn’t do so until either the tail end, last week of January or the beginning of February. If we get to 1/20 and there isn’t a sustained change imminent with actual legit cold (not -NAO/-AO trapping PAC air with a +EPO and screaming fast PAC jet with split-flow blasting into the west coast) then we can start thinking of a 97-98 type redux

Yes 1/20 is usually the point of inflection.   I guess we could extend it to the end of January in terms of seeing something, but by then it really becomes a repeat of last winter.

 

[Allsnow]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I think we have an excellent shot at it. 

First week of January definitely cooked 

[North and West]

I can think we can mostly expect 40s rain from now through April with some sunny breaks into the 50s in between.  I have zero expectations for winter weather.  If it comes, I will say wow.  

I think one thing to remember - and not discounting the drumbeat of AGW or new climate regime or background state or whatever - is that all of this has happened before and all of this will (or is) happen(ing) again.

It sucks, but we’ve all lived through it. Amazing stat on 1931 through 1934.


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[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There have been huge red flags for the last 2 months….the record low snow and ice cover, all the arctic air locked on the other side of the pole in Eurasia and an El Niño with region 3.4 SSTs of over +2C in place since November. There is a load of work that needs to be done in our source region. It’s ugly right now

anyone have any idea why the arctic air always seems to go on the other side of the globe?

is it because Eurasia is a much larger land mass?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think one thing to remember - and not discounting the drumbeat of AGW or new climate regime or background state or whatever - is that all of this has happened before and all of this will (or is) happen(ing) again.

It sucks, but we’ve all lived through it. Amazing stat on 1931 through 1934.


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February 1934 must have been one huge shock to the system, the greatest wintry month in the entire history of the region.

 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

First week of January definitely cooked 

Just like you and a few others warned, there’s no true cold air, major source region issues….

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Just like you and a few others warned, there’s no true cold air, major source region issues….

Only this subforum that thinks winter is canceled. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Only this subforum that thinks winter is canceled. 

You think we're getting snow in the next 10 days?

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just like you and a few others warned, there’s no true cold air, major source region issues….

Second week looks like a -pna with -nao dumping cold into the west. We very well might get to 1/15 without anything 

[Dan76]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Only this subforum that thinks winter is canceled. 

Mid Atl ?

[Allsnow]

Probably see improvements out west when the mjo gets into p3. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Second week looks like a -pna with -nao dumping cold into the west. We very well might get to 1/15 without anything 

you need to wait for the shorter wavelengths later in the season for this to work for us, dont you

 

[NittanyWx]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Second week looks like a -pna with -nao dumping cold into the west. We very well might get to 1/15 without anything 

I think this was well telegraphed personally.  In years where you 'got out of it' after a very mild start, this was normally the step change observed. 

[the_other_guy]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Only this subforum that thinks winter is canceled. 

I mean, looks bad to start January. We have 10 weeks from January 1 to have a winter. 

If what Im looking at today is correct (always a big if) we are down to 8.5 weeks to have a winter.

Just a game of attrition.

On a more global scale, NYC has a 15 week snowfall season. Last week of November thru second week of March. By Jan 7, we are 6 weeks in. 

It’s like a baseball game the Mets are playing, the Jets in December, or the Knicks with Dolan as owner. Could work, but if you have been around a while, you can start calling these things before half time or the 7th inning stretch

 

I personally would feel better if December produced anything. Better historical data to cling to

[North and West]

I mean, looks bad to start January. We have 10 weeks from January 1 to have a winter. 
If what Im looking at today is correct (always a big if) we are down to 8.5 weeks to have a winter.
Just a game of attrition.
On a more global scale, NYC has a 15 week snowfall season. Last week of November thru second week of March. By Jan 7, we are 6 weeks in. 
It’s like a baseball game the Mets are playing, the Jets in December, or the Knicks with Dolan as owner. Could work, but if you have been around a while, you can start calling these things before half time or the 7th inning stretch
 
I personally would feel better if December produced anything. Better historical data to cling to

There are two supernatural things I want to experience in my life, and it’s getting more concerning that it won’t occur in my life as I’m now past 40:

• A true White Christmas
• The Mets winning the World Series

I know what you’re thinking and you’re correct: Aliens will be landing in Midtown in broad daylight while being filmed by domestic and international press teams prior to those things happening.


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[Dark Star]

33 minutes ago, North and West said:

There are two supernatural things I want to experience in my life, and it’s getting more concerning that it won’t occur in my life as I’m now past 40:

• A true White Christmas
• The Mets winning the World Series

I know what you’re thinking and you’re correct: Aliens will be landing in Midtown in broad daylight while being filmed by domestic and international press teams prior to those things happening.


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Stranger things have happened.  I would put my money on the Mets before we have a "good" winter again (1 or 2 freak storms do not make a winter).  I disagree with the NWS's White Christmas definition.  If you have a foot of snow in your yard, it's a white Christmas.  

[Allsnow]

Weeklies flip the pattern to a great look around the 15th into February…

It’s been showing that look for months now unfortunately 

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies flip the pattern to a great look around the 15th into February…

It’s been showing that look for months now unfortunately 

Sun angle…

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

There are two supernatural things I want to experience in my life, and it’s getting more concerning that it won’t occur in my life as I’m now past 40:

• A true White Christmas
• The Mets winning the World Series

I know what you’re thinking and you’re correct: Aliens will be landing in Midtown in broad daylight while being filmed by domestic and international press teams prior to those things happening.


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I am a Yankees fan but I would go with METS. Anytime you have an owner with those resources you can win a WS any year. Just look at Texas last year. Mostly money driven. Mets can turn that around in a year or two.

So, METS.

[kat5hurricane]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

First threat or model run of interest will probably start around the 5/6th. I agree, by the 15th if we are still reading posts from metfan about how the pattern is changing this winter is most likely a punt 

If? Death, taxes and Metfan forecasting good patterns. It's all jokes @MJO812 don't take it too seriously.

[North and West]

I am a Yankees fan but I would go with METS. Anytime you have an owner with those resources you can win a WS any year. Just look at Texas last year. Mostly money driven. Mets can turn that around in a year or two.
So, METS.

Thank you. I’m at the age that I don’t care how they do it, I just need them to do it. I wish Yamamoto took Steve Cohen’s money.




It’s like our winters… I don’t care how we mitigate AGW (trees, emissions cuts, carbon capture, a combination of all three), as long as we do.


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