January 2024

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

One after that which was a frontal system and then winter ended. 

Thanks I think the first one is what caused the crane to fall in NYC and the second one was the superbowl storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had like and 8.5" and a 14" storm like 3 days apart in early April...Sox game was snowed out.

Once in a lifetime season.

You eventually surpassed it in 2014-15, but 1995-96 was much more of an all around great season, which started great and ended great.  2014-15 was better for a concentrated period in the middle.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, JM.  A question.... where does it run off to?  The lowest ground it can find? And when it gets there does it freeze there (the freezing rain equivalent of a snow drift I guess lol)

 

There was definitely allot of ice in the trees still on the north shore of queens on the drive home on the cross island. Pretty typical in marginal events. I saw the report of .25” accreditation in east hills, I could see that. Once the the southern state no ice, and this was about 330 today. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

You eventually surpassed it in 2014-15, but 1995-96 was much more of an all around great season, which started great and ended great.  2014-15 was better for a concentrated period in the middle.

 

I never surpassed 1996....Boston did. I fell a foot short because of a brutal, cold and dry March. 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature dipped to 17° this morning in Central Park. That was New York City's first reading below 20° this winter. It was also the fifth latest first teens on record.

Another storm could impact the region Friday or Saturday. This again appears to be mainly a 1"-3" snow event for the New York City and Newark areas. However, there could be an area of moderate snow (generally around 4"). Ratios could be in the 12:1 to 15:1 range in many areas leading to a fluffier snow.

Following the storm, the temperature will likely fall into the teens in New York City during the weekend, which will likely see this winter's coldest readings so far.

Beyond that, a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region will likely commence. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked.

The SOI was +26.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.461 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On January 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.277 (RMM). The January 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.828 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.6° (1.9° above normal).

 

[NorthShoreWx]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

There was definitely a nice glaze on trees here but I wouldn’t say we were near 0.25” which is warning criteria ice. I would say 0.1” or so actually accreted. When temps are just below freezing a good amount of the rain just runs off. When temps get down to 28-29 it becomes a lot more dangerous when there’s steady rain. 

I was playing down the ice accumulations here as trivial, but when the sun hit it this afternoon and some of the ice started falling from the trees it looked like about 1/8".   It looked nice with the deep blue sky and the sun glinting off the icy branches.

The Sound is still on the warm side.  We only got down to 18 last night; even Manhattan got down to 17.  Its cooling off though as we had no trouble staying below freezing  yesterday with the NE wind.  Temp is colder now than this morning (15.9° atm). 

Met some friends for dinner in Massapequa tonight and had fun on the ride home watching the temperature on the car thermometer drop from 24 at the Southern State / Sagtikos junction down to 19 at the 25A end of the Sunken Meadow (about 10 miles).  Once we get the Sound temps solidly into the 30s, it isn't a problem any more.

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I was playing down the ice accumulations here as trivial, but when the sun hit it this afternoon and some of the ice started falling from the trees it looked like about 1/8".   It looked nice with the deep blue sky and the sun glinting off the icy branches.

The Sound is still on the warm side.  We only got down to 18 last night; even Manhattan got down to 17.  Its cooling off though as we had no trouble staying below freezing  yesterday with the NE wind.  Temp is colder now than this morning (15.9° atm). 

Met some friends for dinner in Massapequa tonight and had fun on the ride home watching the temperature on the car thermometer drop from 24 at the Southern State / Sagtikos junction down to 19 at the 25A end of the Sunken Meadow (about 10 miles).  Once we get the Sound temps solidly into the 30s, it isn't a problem any more.

I drove through my neighborhood last night and the ice was definitely noticeable in the trees. Very wintry scene. Not to the point branches were drooping but much more and there could’ve been power issues. I’m near Jericho Turnpike so the sound doesn’t affect my area. Down to 17 here, may get down to the low teens. 

[kdennis78]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:21 AM, kdennis78 said:

For those who understand models and long term forecasting better than I do: Do we see any return to the identical pattern of December and early January with warm temps and relentless and destructive costal low systems that throw down at least 2-6" of rain every three days?

Bump. Any insights?

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, kdennis78 said:

Bump. Any insights?

Right now, it doesn’t look like the area would be pounded by a series of big rainstorms.

[NorthShoreWx]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I drove through my neighborhood last night and the ice was definitely noticeable in the trees. Very wintry scene. Not to the point branches were drooping but much more and there could’ve been power issues. I’m near Jericho Turnpike so the sound doesn’t affect my area. Down to 17 here, may get down to the low teens. 

Right now the winds are light West to Southwest on the island, so we are more insulated from both the sound and the ocean  and radiating relatively well, which explains the rapid drop heading north on the Sag earlier.  Happens all the time...we often get our coldest nights after loosing the northerly component to the wind 1 day after KFOK gets their coldest nights.  

[Roger Smith]

The warmer interval still has some colder days in the mix and very cold air masses tracking southeast into New England and eastern Canada. Any small variations in 7-10 day outcomes from model guidance could bring significant errors in predictions with this tight gradient developing. It looks like several cases of mild air sauntering along oblivious to the presence of predator cold air and I don't totally trust model guidance in such situations, it could bust either way -- the cold could be modelled too aggressively, or the cold could push back harder. Snow has now covered most of the previously bare ground in central regions and more snow is coming there. 

I suspect there will be two more significant cold and snow intervals, one each in Feb and march. 

[LoboLeader1]

As of 1AM, it's 5F here in western MA. 18F back home.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never surpassed 1996....Boston did. I fell a foot short because of a brutal, cold and dry March. 

That sounds like March 2014 and March 2015 were similar up your way, we had a cold and dry March 2014 but got close to 20" of snow in March 2015-- I've never seen a March like that before or since.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I was playing down the ice accumulations here as trivial, but when the sun hit it this afternoon and some of the ice started falling from the trees it looked like about 1/8".   It looked nice with the deep blue sky and the sun glinting off the icy branches.

The Sound is still on the warm side.  We only got down to 18 last night; even Manhattan got down to 17.  Its cooling off though as we had no trouble staying below freezing  yesterday with the NE wind.  Temp is colder now than this morning (15.9° atm). 

Met some friends for dinner in Massapequa tonight and had fun on the ride home watching the temperature on the car thermometer drop from 24 at the Southern State / Sagtikos junction down to 19 at the 25A end of the Sunken Meadow (about 10 miles).  Once we get the Sound temps solidly into the 30s, it isn't a problem any more.

This is exactly how I remember January 1994.  The Saturday morning it ended as a period of flurries and the sun came out and the wind started blowing, the ice was glittering like diamonds in the trees against the backdrop of the brilliant deep blue skies.   When the wind started blowing though, the air had an unnatural feel to it, the trees seemed like silent zombies who had lost their souls and who refused to move, they were so stiff, like sparkling corpses encased in ice and standing still.

 

[bluewave]

The 24° high in NYC on Wednesday was the coldest in two years.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2024	24	349
2023	27	0
2022	15	0
2021	25	0
2020	31	0
2019	14	0
2018	13	0
2017	18	0
2016	15	0
2015	19	0
2014	17	0
2013	20	0
2012	27	0
2011	24	0
2010	20	0

 

[wishcast_hater]

What else would I expect now that the cold air is gone.




.

[MJO812]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

What else would I expect now that the cold air is gone.




.

It's a shame that we couldn't get a huge snowstorm with this cold in place 

[North and West]

It's a shame that we couldn't get a huge snowstorm with this cold in place 

That’s my childhood


.

[Allsnow]

Ens look horrible going forward. Only positive is the gefs ext and weeklies agree on a better pattern by the end of February 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Ens look horrible going forward. Only positive is the gefs ext and weeklies agree on a better pattern by the end of February 

Just 6 shorts weeks away...

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ens look horrible going forward. Only positive is the gefs ext and weeklies agree on a better pattern by the end of February 

This winter so far is more evidence that there seem to have been two pattern shifts to our winters starting with the 15-16 super El Niño. The first shift is that all our winters since then have been warmer to record warmer. So this winter will mark a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer winters. The beginning of the warmer period from 15-16 to 17-18 still was producing record snowfall within the 09-10 to 17-18 window. Then around 18-19 we started to see a decline in snowfall to a lower baseline than before 2010-2018. The common denominator seems to be a more amplified MJO 4-7 pattern and a stronger ridge near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if we can at least change up the snowfall equation and sneak in another year like 20-21 over the next few winters.

[North and West]

Ens look horrible going forward. Only positive is the gefs ext and weeklies agree on a better pattern by the end of February 

Sounds like Smarch to me!


.

[cleetussnow]

Punt

[Allsnow]

 

[NEG NAO]

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ens look horrible going forward. Only positive is the gefs ext and weeklies agree on a better pattern by the end of February 

by that time - we will be mowing our lawns - I bet we have at least a couple 70 + degree days in February..

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

by that time - we will be mowing our lawns - I bet we have at least a couple 70 + degree days in February..

Backloaded Nino winter calls in serious trouble 

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This winter so far is more evidence that there seem to have been two pattern shifts to our winters starting with the 15-16 super El Niño. The first shift is that all our winters since then have been warmer to record warmer. So this winter will mark a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer winters. The beginning of the warmer period from 15-16 to 17-18 still was producing record snowfall within the 09-10 to 17-18 window. Then around 18-19 we started to see a decline in snowfall to a lower baseline than before 2010-2018. The common denominator seems to be a more amplified MJO 4-7 pattern and a stronger ridge near the Northeast. It will be interesting to see if we can at least change up the snowfall equation and sneak in another year like 20-21 over the next few winters.

I think we will see good winters sprinkled in. 

Looking at 70 through 99 as a benchmark for futility, CPK only had 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, or 16.67%. So far from 18/19 onwards, excluding this winter, CPK has 1 above average winter in 5 years, or 20%.

We should see more amplitude in phases 1 and 2 given the rapidly rising western IO temps, which will help offset 4 through 7.

Phases 3 and 8 will likely be reduced. 

We may have better luck than 70 through 90 as "suppression" may be offset by the SE ridge. 90 through 99 perhaps not. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 24° high in NYC on Wednesday was the coldest in two years.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2024	24	349
2023	27	0
2022	15	0
2021	25	0
2020	31	0
2019	14	0
2018	13	0
2017	18	0
2016	15	0
2015	19	0
2014	17	0
2013	20	0
2012	27	0
2011	24	0
2010	20	0

 

I'm confused-- we had much colder lows last winter, 3 degrees and 6 degrees, on two arctic shots

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Backloaded Nino winter calls in serious trouble 

I mean strong Ninos typically have one period, we just failed to take advantage like 82/83 and 15/16.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I think we will see good winters sprinkled in. 

Looking at 70 through 99 as a benchmark for futility, CPK only had 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, or 16.67%. So far from 18/19 onwards, excluding this winter, CPK has 1 above average winter in 5 years, or 20%.

We should see more amplitude in phases 1 and 2 given the rapidly rising western IO temps, which will help offset 4 through 7.

Phases 3 and 8 will likely be reduced. 

We may have better luck than 70 through 90 as "suppression" may be offset by the SE ridge. 90 through 99 perhaps not. 

it'd hard to call them futile with 77-78, 93-94 and 95-96 in there