MANDA Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nice snow swath as seen on morning visible satellite pic. That snow pack helped produce the extreme cold this morning over the northern Gulf states and TN Valley this morning. I believe it hit 0 in Nashville this morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, MANDA said: Nice snow swath as seen on morning visible satellite pic. That snow pack helped produce the extreme cold this morning over the northern Gulf states and TN Valley this morning. I believe it hit 0 in Nashville this morning. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: They also had 7” of snow I think in the last storm. Deep deep winter in that area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Noted, but I'll hedge against that. The progression of the MJO has been underplayed all season. Sure enough today a few more GEFS members try blasting it past 6 through 7, the EPS effectively kills the wave in 6 which I said is fine too because then you probably just revert into a typical Nino February state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEPS is the same general theme and the GEFS is more of a gradient pattern. That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period. If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period. If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets. I am thinking the varying model solutions are due to the MJO forecast to go into phase 7 near the start of February. Phase 7 is much better for us in January than February during an El Niño. The models with a stronger -EPO +PNA have more of a phase 7 look for January. The phase 7 composite in February has more of a ridge across the CONUS. Both the extended EPS and GEFS slow the MJO down in 7 in early February. My guess due to the record SSTs near the Dateline. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I am thinking the varying model solutions are due to the MJO forecast to go into phase 7 near the start of February. Phase 7 is much better for us in January than February during an El Niño. The models with a stronger -EPO +PNA have more of a phase 7 look for January. The phase 7 composite in February has more of a ridge across the CONUS. Both the extended EPS and GEFS slow the MJO down in 7 in early February. My guess due to the record SSTs near the Dateline. @40/70 Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period. If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets. In other words, I still don't need to take the snow blower out of mothballs.....going for that incredible stretch from 97-2000 where I didn't use it once and the hoses dry rotted..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, weatherpruf said: In other words, I still don't need to take the snow blower out of mothballs.....going for that incredible stretch from 97-2000 where I didn't use it once and the hoses dry rotted..... Is 2021 the last time you used it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That has gotta be the worst +PNA/-EPO pattern I ever saw lol....I am not even sure if that technically qualifies as a +PNA but basically all the numerical GEFS have it as positive in that period. If you wanted to draw a map of how a +PNA/-EPO/neutral NAO/AO could screw you over, thats about as close as it gets. I posted something similar in another thread without being quite as blunt about it, but was told it is a workable pattern and would just take some unconventional methods to work. Feb 15th - 26th is where we have our next legit shot after the light system Friday. Then lights out after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I posted something similar in another thread without being quite as blunt about it, but was told it is a workable pattern and would just take some unconventional methods to work. Feb 15th - 26th is where we have our next legit shot after the light system Friday. Then lights out after that. Maybe we could get a warm March for a change....winter's mostly done by then anyway at least as far as accum snows 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Maybe we could get a warm March for a change....winter's mostly done by then anyway at least as far as accum snows Ninos favor a warm March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Allsnow said: Ninos favor a warm March This winter appears likely to have 2 short periods of cold/snow in an otherwise sea of tremendous warmth... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ninos favor a warm March I remember when people thought March 2010 was gonna rock after a relaxation period and instead we torched and got slammed with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I remember when people thought March 2010 was gonna rock after a relaxation period and instead we torched and got slammed with rain There was blocking but it was just stale torched air at that point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am thinking the varying model solutions are due to the MJO forecast to go into phase 7 near the start of February. Phase 7 is much better for us in January than February during an El Niño. The models with a stronger -EPO +PNA have more of a phase 7 look for January. The phase 7 composite in February has more of a ridge across the CONUS. Both the extended EPS and GEFS slow the MJO down in 7 in early February. My guess due to the record SSTs near the Dateline. Shouldn't we re-emerge in phase 1 again like the last wave? Check those ocean temps off Africa in phases 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This winter appears likely to have 2 short periods of cold/snow in an otherwise sea of tremendous warmth... Typical strong Nino. Hopefully we get a 6+ storm before it’s over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold… You may do better Friday than the rest of us up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: I remember when people thought March 2010 was gonna rock after a relaxation period and instead we torched and got slammed with rain 2010 torch started in March & continued right thru Sept, monthly warm rankings at Phila during that stretch: MAR - 10th APR - 5th MAY - 10th JUN - 1st JUL - 6th AUG - 11th SEP - 7th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 37 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: 2010 torch started in March & continued right thru 2023, monthly warm rankings at Phila during that stretch: MAR - 10th APR - 5th MAY - 10th JUN - 1st JUL - 6th AUG - 11th SEP - 7th FIXED 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Weeklies look mild to start February. Blocking and Aleutian low can kicked to end of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold… It’s glacial. Snow removal has been brutal. Salt almost no effect when temps below 20. My manager just doesn’t seem to get this concept. (More salt, more salt on the radio alllllll day today) ummm we are making a mess and it’s not working 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies look mild to start February. Blocking and Aleutian low can kicked to end of month seems like a repeat of January-the pattern looked to change around xmas and it was actually 3 weeks after that... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: seems like a repeat of January-the pattern looked to change around xmas and it was actually 3 weeks after that... One week wonder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies look mild to start February. Blocking and Aleutian low can kicked to end of month Alot of forecasts in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Alot of forecasts in jeopardy Yup. Webb is silent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Webb is silent JB's still all in...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: JB's still all in...LOL Shocking haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 hours ago, jm1220 said: There was definitely a nice glaze on trees here but I wouldn’t say we were near 0.25” which is warning criteria ice. I would say 0.1” or so actually accreted. When temps are just below freezing a good amount of the rain just runs off. When temps get down to 28-29 it becomes a lot more dangerous when there’s steady rain. Thanks, JM. A question.... where does it run off to? The lowest ground it can find? And when it gets there does it freeze there (the freezing rain equivalent of a snow drift I guess lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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