LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think we were mainly discussing a 1 week window for a while now this month with the lagged phase 3 response. But it’s challenging to put together more than a 1-3 or 2-4 event for NYC with such a short window. Especially with so many adjacent warm MJO phases. What I loved about 16-17 is that we were able to put together blizzards in a sea of 60° days with only briefly favorable patterns. well the speculation was we would keep getting high precip events like we did when the pattern was warmer.... what stopped the high precip events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: In this case, probably not. The differences were sufficiently small that they could be within the variation one would see with the QPF. Moreover, Central Park reported an observation after 7 am with an increase in snowfall suggesting that a measurement was made when the snow stopped falling. It looks like the rest of the precip at Central Park was freezing rain? 0.1 inch ZR reported there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NYC currently 19. Panama City Florida is only 24 lol. they also got snow down there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: When Washington crossed the Delaware there were ice jams. Can only imagine how they survived those winters. there were shops set up on the Hudson River and people carried artillery and cannons across the river. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another case of the coldest departures and temperatures dropping to our west. 1995-96 was such a multifaceted winter and the return to extreme cold and snow in February was dramatic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think we were mainly discussing a 1 week window for a while now this month with the lagged phase 3 response. But it’s challenging to put together more than a 1-3 or 2-4 event for NYC with such a short window. Especially with so many adjacent warm MJO phases. What I loved about 16-17 is that we were able to put together blizzards in a sea of 60° days with only briefly favorable patterns. Most of our strong Nino snowfalls are inside a short favorable window. The blizzard of 2016 was sandwiched between warmth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It looks like the rest of the precip at Central Park was freezing rain? 0.1 inch ZR reported there. Central Park had 0.16" of freezing rain. The highest freezing rain amounts in the New York NWS area were: East Hills, NY: 0.27" New Haven: 0.25" Bridgeport: 0.23" Harrison, NJ: 0.20" Darien: 0.18" 1 N Meriden Airport, CT: 0.18" New York City (Central Park): 0.16" 1 W Plainview, NY: 0.13" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully we’re not entering a multi week period of zero threats. It’s obviously going to get warm next week but Canada does look to stay cold. Which is very comforting from about my area points north, but I know it usually takes more than that there. Hopefully we can catch a few breaks.....or one big one. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 1995-96 was such a multifaceted winter and the return to extreme cold and snow in February was dramatic. February 1996 was the only month that was meh where I am that season. December, January, March and even April rocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Noted, but I'll hedge against that. The progression of the MJO has been underplayed all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: When Washington crossed the Delaware there were ice jams. Can only imagine how they survived those winters. They were much tougher; but a good many of them froze to death after eating their own shoe leather due to lack of food. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Most of our strong Nino snowfalls are inside a short favorable window. The blizzard of 2016 was sandwiched between warmth The favorable 500 mb pattern for the 1-23-16 blizzard actually began around the 7th several weeks before the blizzard. Notice the great extended blocking pattern with the -AO peaking near -5. So the 50/50 low was well established. The final pieces came together just after the 20th when the Pacific relaxed enough for the record blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Most of our strong Nino snowfalls are inside a short favorable window. The blizzard of 2016 was sandwiched between warmth This week is probably your winter. I hate to say that and hope Im wrong, but I think Im right 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Geps gefs don’t have that look. Even the weeklies kick the ideal look to mid month. That h5 look posted above is cold in the northeast but probably very dry verbatim GEPS is the same general theme and the GEFS is more of a gradient pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEPS is the same general theme and the GEFS is more of a gradient pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 That is kind of a la Nina look on the GEFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEPS is the same general theme and the GEFS is more of a gradient pattern. The gradient patterns haven’t worked out because the ridge off the east coast gets stronger as we get closer. Very skeptical that look works down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The gradient patterns haven’t worked out because the ridge off the east coast gets stronger as we get closer. Very skeptical that look works down here Okay, so.... 1) You are assuming the GEFS is correct over the EPS and GEPS in slowing the MJO, which has not worked all year... 2) And you are assuming that the eastern heights will verify higher than forecasted by even the GEFS. Got it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: NYC currently 19. Panama City Florida is only 24 lol. Austin TX got down to 15 I think. And that’s a place where there are lots of palm trees around (the western variety that are more cold tolerant) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It looks like the rest of the precip at Central Park was freezing rain? 0.1 inch ZR reported there. I’m not sure if they count freezing rain as any precip that fell at 32 or below or they measure the glaze on a surface. I’d say here there was at least 0.1” considering the glaze on surfaces. Trees have a nice glaze on them for sure. Not close to a warning amount but it got quite icy. Thankfully a lot fell when it was 30-31 so the pavements didn’t get bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Picard said: Great radiational cooling last night. I got down to 4 up here. Most of Sussex County was down into the single digits. Overnight low of 8 here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: The favorable 500 mb pattern for the 1-23-16 blizzard actually began around the 7th several weeks before the blizzard. Notice the great extended blocking pattern with the -AO peaking near -5. So the 50/50 low was well established. The final pieces came together just after the 20th when the Pacific relaxed enough for the record blizzard. plus we had a few nice snowfalls that winter after the blizzard.... you showed one of the PNS reports that year of a foot of snow that fell on Long Island in February! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: February 1996 was the only month that was meh where I am that season. December, January, March and even April rocked. Funnily enough I enjoyed March and April the most, because it's so rare to get multiple snowfalls like that so late in the season down here. And the cold was always underplayed that season, just like it was in 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Central Park had 0.16" of freezing rain. The highest freezing rain amounts in the New York NWS area were: East Hills, NY: 0.27" New Haven: 0.25" Bridgeport: 0.23" Harrison, NJ: 0.20" Darien: 0.18" 1 N Meriden Airport, CT: 0.18" New York City (Central Park): 0.16" 1 W Plainview, NY: 0.13" wow the hills on the north shore must have been treacherous with over a quarter of an inch of ice! How much snow fell at East Hills, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Funnily enough I enjoyed March and April the most, because it's so rare to get multiple snowfalls like that so late in the season down here. And the cold was always underplayed that season, just like it was in 1993-94. I had like and 8.5" and a 14" storm like 3 days apart in early April...Sox game was snowed out. Once in a lifetime season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: plus we had a few nice snowfalls that winter after the blizzard.... you showed one of the PNS reports that year of a foot of snow that fell on Long Island in February! One after that which was a frontal system and then winter ended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The favorable 500 mb pattern for the 1-23-16 blizzard actually began around the 7th several weeks before the blizzard. Notice the great extended blocking pattern with the -AO peaking near -5. So the 50/50 low was well established. The final pieces came together just after the 20th when the Pacific relaxed enough for the record blizzard. Wheels of change were in motion this month during the first week. The pac relaxed and we are snowing… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow the hills on the north shore must have been treacherous with over a quarter of an inch of ice! How much snow fell at East Hills, Don? 2.4" of snow fell at East Hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow the hills on the north shore must have been treacherous with over a quarter of an inch of ice! How much snow fell at East Hills, Don? There was definitely a nice glaze on trees here but I wouldn’t say we were near 0.25” which is warning criteria ice. I would say 0.1” or so actually accreted. When temps are just below freezing a good amount of the rain just runs off. When temps get down to 28-29 it becomes a lot more dangerous when there’s steady rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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