EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, bluewave said: Another case of the coldest departures and temperatures dropping to our west. It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol. Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol. Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years. I understand how much further west Atlanta is from NYC, but they are still east of the Applachians, and a heckuva lot farther south than us to be colder than us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’m beginning to think we get another week of opportunity in February and that will probably be it…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Allsnow said: I’m beginning to think we get another week of opportunity in February and that will probably be it…. I think the whole month of February might be good if we get the MJO to cooperate . If not then this will be a big bust by many forecasters who are thinking a backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another case of the coldest departures and temperatures dropping to our west. Good...keep it there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, MJO812 said: I think the whole month of February might be good if we get the MJO to cooperate . If not then this will be a big bust by many forecasters who are thinking a backloaded winter. One big event will hit my range for CPK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I think the whole month of February might be good if we get the MJO to cooperate . If not then this will be a big bust by many forecasters who are thinking a backloaded winter. I don’t see a whole month of opportunity. The look everyone is forecasting got can kicked to mid month now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m beginning to think we get another week of opportunity in February and that will probably be it…. Why? I haven't looked at much long range lately with the more active short/medium range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think the whole month of February might be good if we get the MJO to cooperate . If not then this will be a big bust by many forecasters who are thinking a backloaded winter. Even the January pattern turned out to be only 7 days-originally looked like a couple to 3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I don’t see a whole month of opportunity. The look everyone is forecasting got can kicked to mid month now What is wrong with this? I think someone kicked the can into your grape lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I don’t see a whole month of opportunity. The look everyone is forecasting got can kicked to mid month now That's rare anyway-last time we had a few weeks of a great pattern was Feb '21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: JFK had 2.0 of snow too. LGA also just missed 2", as they ended up with 1.9 LaGuardia's final snowfall was 2.3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Even the January pattern turned out to be only 7 days-originally looked like a couple to 3 weeks. January never looked like wall-to-wall snow/cold to me. It has been warmer than I thought though, admittedly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I understand how much further west Atlanta is from NYC, but they are still east of the Applachians, and a heckuva lot farther south than us to be colder than us. To me Panama City right on the Gulf Coast at 24 is really impressive given how warm the Gulf waters are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I would put 14/15 almost as high as 03 and 96, we snowed all the way till March when everything was suppressed to DC (was not like we warmed up or anything). Yeah in 15/16 my town reached average snowfall with a mid March 3 incher. 82/83 had those storms, however CPK only reached average snowfall with 27.2, and was actually the only winter in the entire decade to reach average snowfall (the decade snowfall average was 19.74 inches). What's absolutely insane is CPK reached average snowfall only 5 seasons in 30 years! 77/78, 78/79, 82/83, 93/94, 95/96. What's even more amazing is CPK had only three years with above average snowfall in 30 years. 55 through 69 and 00 through 18 inflated CPKs average annual snowfall. Yes 14-15 was one of my favorites too. I think December was mild though? I remember the new england forum was worried because they hadn't had much snow by January 15th. The rarest of rare winters are the ones that are snowy from December thru March (and sometimes November and April too!) That is insane about NYC and the other thing is NYC never even reached 30 inches of snowfall between 1978-79 and 1992-93. JFK did reach 30 inches of snowfall in 1982-83 though so that was above normal here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: LaGuardia's final snowfall was 2.3". Don do you feel that Central Park probably undermeasured ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why? I haven't looked at much long range lately with the more active short/medium range. Mjo looks to be slowing down in p6. I don’t think it’s going to be a quick transition back. Typically with strong ninos it’s a two week winter down here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don, the el nino has peaked and has started to go down again? It peaked right at +2.0 last week, right? It peaked on a multiweek basis. December may also have been the monthly peak. We'll see when the final ENSO numbers are available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol. Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years. We are still at our night time low of 18 even in full sunshine! The snowcover-- what little there is of it-- is really nice to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Yes 14-15 was one of my favorites too. I think December was mild though? I remember the new england forum was worried because they hadn't had much snow by January 15th. The rarest of rare winters are the ones that are snowy from December thru March (and sometimes November and April too!) That is insane about NYC and the other thing is NYC never even reached 30 inches of snowfall between 1978-79 and 1992-93. JFK did reach 30 inches of snowfall in 1982-83 though so that was above normal here. My bad meant 13/14. If we are really heading through another 30 year period like 70 through 99, being a few degrees warmer would actually increase snowfall (except the 90s which were an inferno). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why? I haven't looked at much long range lately with the more active short/medium range. To be fair, one big event is all it will take. It can be above average the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is wrong with this? I think someone kicked the can into your grape lol Geps gefs don’t have that look. Even the weeklies kick the ideal look to mid month. That h5 look posted above is cold in the northeast but probably very dry verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Allsnow said: Mjo looks to be slowing down in p6. I don’t think it’s going to be a quick transition back. Typically with strong ninos it’s a two week winter down here I remember people were saying the same thing back in December, but the progression of the MJO has been underestimated all season...granted, December was still a blood bath, but that isn't the point. The MJO never stalled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, EastonSN+ said: My bad meant 13/14. If we are really heading through another 30 year period like 70 through 99, being a few degrees warmer would actually increase snowfall (except the 90s which were an inferno). 13-14 was great up until we hit that roadblock in March Otherwise it probably would have broken the record. Then it would have been a wall to wall winter (my requirement for wall to wall winter is above normal snowfall every month from December through March.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Allsnow said: Geps gefs don’t have that look. Even the weeklies kick the ideal look to mid month. That h5 look posted above is cold in the northeast but probably very dry verbatim I don't know....maybe, but I have seen set ups like that in the past that have been very fruitful. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: My bad meant 13/14. If we are really heading through another 30 year period like 70 through 99, being a few degrees warmer would actually increase snowfall (except the 90s which were an inferno). Yes we should definitely see more snowfall than we saw in the 80s, maybe even the 90s too, except for 93-94 and 95-96, I don't see how we can beat those two winters lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Even the January pattern turned out to be only 7 days-originally looked like a couple to 3 weeks. I think we were mainly discussing a 1 week window for a while now this month with the lagged phase 3 response. But it’s challenging to put together more than a 1-3 or 2-4 event for NYC with such a short window. Especially with so many adjacent warm MJO phases. What I loved about 16-17 is that we were able to put together blizzards in a sea of 60° days with only briefly favorable patterns. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't know....maybe, but I have seen set ups like that in the past that have been very fruitful. We'll see. Hopefully we’re not entering a multi week period of zero threats. It’s obviously going to get warm next week but Canada does look to stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol. Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years. weren't we in solar minimum in the late 70s? that's my thinking off the top of my head. also note: we have been at absolute solar maximum in 2023 and 2024 (which is why the total solar eclipse in April should feature lots of pink prominences!) we were also at absolute solar maximum in the early 1990s when we had all those very mild winters and very hot summers, when NYC had 22 out of 24 months above normal in 1990 and 1991 and set the then all time hottest year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, LibertyBell said: Don do you feel that Central Park probably undermeasured ? In this case, probably not. The differences were sufficiently small that they could be within the variation one would see with the QPF. Moreover, Central Park reported an observation after 7 am with an increase in snowfall suggesting that a measurement was made when the snow stopped falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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