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January 2024


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9 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Given how the past few winters have gone and the fact that we are climatologically near winter’s peak, a big part of me feels like the next few days will be the coldest stretch this winter will have to offer.  Anyone else?

Probably a good bet unless it's like 2016 where we get a one off zero degree day in February 

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Down to 16, prior season low was 17. Be curious to see if I go any lower before sunrise. 

Temp plot looks to still be slowly dropping. The snow remaining on my grass has a beautiful crystalline sheen from the cold temps, I love it. 

I managed to scrape by the protracted rain fest after my three inches fell with at least one remaining inch on the grass. I’ll take it. 

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13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think 82/83 had more to do with blocking as well.

Does anyone have temp stats on the 80s? I remember them being cold dry warm and wet like now with areas like kC setting cold records like now while we either roasted or was frigid but ended up raining anyway.

 

 

Here's an interesting thing about 15-16, popular opinion is that it was a one storm wonder, but it was really more than that.  Long Island got hit with a storm that dumped a foot of snow in February and even the city got 4-6 inches and  a crane fell in Manhattan in that storm.  There was another storm in February that year too, around the superbowl I think? And NYC went below zero on Valentine's Day!  Besides the torch in December, we had a nice winter, much better than the last 2 that's for sure.  JFK had over 40" of snow and parts of Long Island had 50"

and I remember a few things about 82-83, besides the February 1983 HECS, we had our latest accumulating snowfall on record on April 19-20, 1983.  JFK got 2 inches in that storm and inland areas got 1-2 feet!  So even if the el nino is very strong, you can count on either getting hit by a snowstorm late in the season or having a close call.  Pretty much all you can ask for.  Very rarely do we get winters that are snowy beginning to end, I think the last one we had was 2002-03 and 1995-96  and 1993-94 before that.  I have not had any others here in my lifetime.

 

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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's record 701-day streak without 1" daily snowfall ended today. Its record 717-day streak without 2" or more daily snowfall continued.

A fresh shot of cold air will overspread the region following the storm responsible for New York City's and Philadelphia's biggest snowfall so far this winter. The low temperature could fall into the teens for the first time this season.

Another storm could impact the region Friday or Saturday. However, uncertainty about the storm's track and impact has increased. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the weekend, which will likely see this winter's coldest readings so far.

Beyond that, a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region will likely commence. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked.

The SOI was +31.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.670 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.828 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.515 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.3° (1.6° above normal).

 

Don, the el nino has peaked and has started to go down again? It peaked right at +2.0 last week, right?

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34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Here's an interesting thing about 15-16, popular opinion is that it was a one storm wonder, but it was really more than that.  Long Island got hit with a storm that dumped a foot of snow in February and even the city got 4-6 inches and  a crane fell in Manhattan in that storm.  There was another storm in February that year too, around the superbowl I think? And NYC went below zero on Valentine's Day!  Besides the torch in December, we had a nice winter, much better than the last 2 that's for sure.  JFK had over 40" of snow and parts of Long Island had 50"

and I remember a few things about 82-83, besides the February 1983 HECS, we had our latest accumulating snowfall on record on April 19-20, 1983.  JFK got 2 inches in that storm and inland areas got 1-2 feet!  So even if the el nino is very strong, you can count on either getting hit by a snowstorm late in the season or having a close call.  Pretty much all you can ask for.  Very rarely do we get winters that are snowy beginning to end, I think the last one we had was 2002-03 and 1995-96  and 1993-94 before that.  I have not had any others here in my lifetime.

 

I would put 14/15 almost as high as 03 and 96, we snowed all the way till March when everything was suppressed to DC (was not like we warmed up or anything).

Yeah in 15/16 my town reached average snowfall with a mid March 3 incher.

82/83 had those storms, however CPK only reached average snowfall with 27.2, and was actually the only winter in the entire decade to reach average snowfall (the decade snowfall average was 19.74 inches).

What's absolutely insane is CPK reached average snowfall only 5 seasons in 30 years! 77/78, 78/79, 82/83, 93/94, 95/96.

What's even more amazing is CPK had only three years with above average snowfall in 30 years.

55 through 69 and 00 through 18 inflated CPKs average annual snowfall.

 

 

 

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