Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 21 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope. it's always terrible after a rainstorm when it freezes up. Hopefully we can at least get a stretch of no rain-that's the killer-warm and dry is fine assuming there's a decent base 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's always terrible after a rainstorm when it freezes up. Hopefully we can at least get a stretch of no rain-that's the killer-warm and dry is fine assuming there's a decent base For sure. I was just going by their “advertisement” I mean snow report, saying they made snow on open trails (no they didn’t). Poor kid is now terrified of skiing, but I’ll rebuild his confidence quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 54 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: For sure. I was just going by their “advertisement” I mean snow report, saying they made snow on open trails (no they didn’t). Poor kid is now terrified of skiing, but I’ll rebuild his confidence quickly. Go west young man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 out of 3 of the worst days on skis I've ever had, one was at Catamount and the other was at Thunder Ridge. The third was a scary AF day at Squaw Valley. At least from the drive-by distance T Ridge looked ok on Sunday compared to what it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 For those who understand models and long term forecasting better than I do: Do we see any return to the identical pattern of December and early January with warm temps and relentless and destructive costal low systems that throw down at least 2-6" of rain every three days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Go west young man. Yeah I might have to take the young one out there soon, but then question, how do you get them back on the airplane to come home when vacation is over? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Not to be negative and it may only be temporary but hated the ends of the GEPS and GEFS runs. I HATE strong El ninos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not to be negative and it may only be temporary but hated the ends of the GEPS and GEFS runs. I HATE strong El ninos. yep back to the torch but hopefully not for long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not to be negative and it may only be temporary but hated the ends of the GEPS and GEFS runs. I HATE strong El ninos. Mjo might get stuck in the warm phases. If that's the case then close the shades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Mjo might get stuck in the warm phases. If that's the case then close the shades. Strong El Ninos are rarely good. We were lucky to get KUs in 82/83 as well as 15/16 otherwise both would have been way below average snowfall. 97/98 type annual snowfall still on the table for now, hopefully it changes for February. It may linger in the warm phases for a bit, however with the warm waters off Africa we should get a lingering presence in phases 1 and 2. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Phases 4-5-6 have been favored last few winters due to warm SST's in that area. Phase 8 has been almost non exisitent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mjo might get stuck in the warm phases. If that's the case then close the shades. then it's a 10 day winter like some famous ratters 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Phases 4-5-6 have been favored last few winters due to warm SST's in that area. Phase 8 has been almost non exisitent Phases 1, 2 and 3 are also catching up as the waters in the IO have risen dramatically. That's likely why we just witnessed the loop in phases 2 and 3 (amplitude in 1 as well). Yeah 7 and 8 not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: then it's a 10 day winter like some famous ratters 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 February is supposed to be good according to many winter outlooks. We need the MJO to keep chugging along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: February is supposed to be good according to many winter outlooks. We need the MJO to keep chugging along. MJO plots are notoriously fickle so who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: February is supposed to be good according to many winter outlooks. We need the MJO to keep chugging along. Did you see how phase 6 is in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 30 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said: Did you see how phase 6 is in February? Hoping it dies in 6 and re emerges in 1 like the last wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Hoping it dies in 6 and re emerges in 1 like the last wave. 6 is actually cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Strong El Ninos are rarely good. We were lucky to get KUs in 82/83 as well as 15/16 otherwise both would have been way below average snowfall. 97/98 type annual snowfall still on the table for now, hopefully it changes for February. It may linger in the warm phases for a bit, however with the warm waters off Africa we should get a lingering presence in phases 1 and 2. We shall see. those winters weren't lucky so much as we had better blocking (a Kara block in 15-16 and the 80s were colder in general than we are now.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hoping it dies in 6 and re emerges in 1 like the last wave. Honestly just dying in 6 and going dormant is fine...PNA looks positive and AO might head negative...you just don't want it to re-emerge again strongly in 3-4-5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: those winters weren't lucky so much as we had better blocking (a Kara block in 15-16 and the 80s were colder in general than we are now.) I think 82/83 had more to do with blocking as well. Does anyone have temp stats on the 80s? I remember them being cold dry warm and wet like now with areas like kC setting cold records like now while we either roasted or was frigid but ended up raining anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks like a highly variable pattern rather than a big warmup to me, yes there are a few days in 50s but also reloading cold shots on latest run, and end of current run into early Feb looks very similar to Feb 1-3, 1993 when there were a few modestly warm days before a very cold period of six weeks that ended up with the superstorm of march 1993. Also I have seen some similarity of pattern evolution to winter of 1888. It makes me wonder, what is the warmer climate version of blizzard of 1888? Anyway, I would look for some frigid temps at times in February, I don't believe it is going to torch. This coming weekend will be quite cold with 510 dm thicknesses shown over the region on Saturday into Sunday a.m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 gfs has this right in the middle of our warmup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: gfs has this right in the middle of our warmup If we have that 1040 high for it to ram into, game on for at least a good front ender. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If we have that 1040 high for it to ram into, game on for at least a good front ender. Yeah I'm not saying it'll happen but it shows we can still get frozen during a warm stretch due to the time of year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 New York City's record 701-day streak without 1" daily snowfall ended today. Its record 717-day streak without 2" or more daily snowfall continued. A fresh shot of cold air will overspread the region following the storm responsible for New York City's and Philadelphia's biggest snowfall so far this winter. The low temperature could fall into the teens for the first time this season. Another storm could impact the region Friday or Saturday. However, uncertainty about the storm's track and impact has increased. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the weekend, which will likely see this winter's coldest readings so far. Beyond that, a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region will likely commence. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +31.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.670 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.828 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.515 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.3° (1.6° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 At least we have a few days with snow/ice in the ground during what will probably be our coldest week of the winter. Another 2-4” Friday and it will feel like mid winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: New York City's record 701-day streak without 1" daily snowfall ended today. Its record 717-day streak without 2" or more daily snowfall continued. A fresh shot of cold air will overspread the region following the storm responsible for New York City's and Philadelphia's biggest snowfall so far this winter. The low temperature could fall into the teens for the first time this season. Another storm could impact the region Friday or Saturday. However, uncertainty about the storm's track and impact has increased. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the weekend, which will likely see this winter's coldest readings so far. Beyond that, a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region will likely commence. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked. The SOI was +31.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.670 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.828 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.515 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.3° (1.6° above normal). Nyc was the only major location that didn’t get 2 or more today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nyc was the only major location that didn’t get 2 or more today They had .16" frz rain. Ewr only a trace https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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