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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They very well could be amped and I don't  usually worry about the icon or rgem being too warm. The nam can often suck but is useful at finding that warm layer is all I'm saying

Right but in this particular case what would be driving a warm layer unless it's amped and close to the coast? If the low is well offshore and not that strong I don't see why there would be a warm layer. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the followup storm to January 2016, Chris? Was that the storm we had a few inches of snow but it could have been a lot more (the storm was just east of us.)  Or was that in February? The storm where the crane fell in NYC?

 


https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02052016

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


 

BETHPAGE              11.5   110 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   NORTH BELLMORE        11.3  1249 PM  2/05  SOCIAL MEDIA
   EAST HILLS            11.0  1230 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   PLAINVIEW             10.5   110 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEVITTOWN             10.2  1131 AM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH MERRICK         10.0   200 PM  2/05  PUBLIC

 

TERRYVILLE            12.0   248 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   SETAUKET              12.0   100 PM  2/05  NWS EMPLOYEE
   SAINT JAMES           11.9   110 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   FARMINGVILLE          11.2   130 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SELDEN                11.0   145 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH HUNTINGTON      11.0  1130 AM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   215 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   YAPHANK               11.0   315 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   HAUPPAUGE             10.5   130 PM  2/05  NWS EMPLOYEE
   MILLER PLACE          10.5   130 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   HOLTSVILLE            10.0   300 PM  2/05  AMATEUR RADIO
   HUNTINGTON            10.0   130 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
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1 minute ago, bluewave said:


https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02052016

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


 

BETHPAGE              11.5   110 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   NORTH BELLMORE        11.3  1249 PM  2/05  SOCIAL MEDIA
   EAST HILLS            11.0  1230 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   PLAINVIEW             10.5   110 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEVITTOWN             10.2  1131 AM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH MERRICK         10.0   200 PM  2/05  PUBLIC

 

TERRYVILLE            12.0   248 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   SETAUKET              12.0   100 PM  2/05  NWS EMPLOYEE
   SAINT JAMES           11.9   110 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   FARMINGVILLE          11.2   130 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SELDEN                11.0   145 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH HUNTINGTON      11.0  1130 AM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   215 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   YAPHANK               11.0   315 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   HAUPPAUGE             10.5   130 PM  2/05  NWS EMPLOYEE
   MILLER PLACE          10.5   130 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   HOLTSVILLE            10.0   300 PM  2/05  AMATEUR RADIO
   HUNTINGTON            10.0   130 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER

We had nothing like that here!  Was this strictly a central and eastern Long Island storm? JFK,LGA had between 4-6 inches and NYC less than that?

 

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6 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Some snow showers at the Buffalo Bills football stadium.  forecasts are for 8-12" tonight and then another 3-5" tomorrow?  What if they played at the regularly scheduled time of 1 PM today?

Snow showers? 

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Buffalo saw the temperature fall below 20° today for the first time this season. The previous latest first occurrence of teens was January 3, 2016 and January 3, 2022. The Buffalo area, especially the Southtowns, was experiencing heavy lake effect snow.

Nothing like that is occurring in the northern Middle Atlantic Region. Nevertheless, in the wake of this afternoon's snow flurries and snow showers, a significant push of cold air is underway. This cold air mass will set the stage for a snow event across the region.

A storm will likely bring a general 1"-3" snowfall to Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston on Tuesday into Wednesday. Some uncertainty persists. However, consistent with historic climatology, a significant snowfall (general 6" or above snowfall) is not likely in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

Additional cold air will arrive following the storm and then late in the week following another storm. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the middle or end of the week for the first time this season.

Friday or Saturday could afford another opportunity for snowfall. Beyond that, a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region will likely commence.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing.

The SOI was +26.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.459 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On January 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.365 (RMM). The January 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.127 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8° (1.1° above normal).

 

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3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

People would have showed up 

Would have been packed. 25 years ago schools rarely closed, the trusty 7 train took my mother around in all sorts of storms and blizzards, and the idea of banning travel would have been ludicrous. 

Now we live in a world where everyone with a twitter account and an ounce of power feel the need to preemptively declare an emergency, tell us how this setup is more dangerous than anything before, and use both those reasons to take away the right to leave the house from hours before an event to hours or days after.

Cant wait to see my kids school delayed 2 hours for 3 inches of snow on Tuesday because Westchester never saw snow before 

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