donsutherland1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave does this also… Its a awful model imo In terms of verification scores, the Canadian model consistently ranks third. Recently, it has ranked second. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I see single digits lows Sunday morning… Is that not cold anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: In terms of verification scores, the Canadian model consistently ranks third. Recently, it has ranked second. Yea I was about to say that. The gfs is a worse model and has been for years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I'm seeing upper teens? Maybe single digits in the usual icebox spots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: really? I thought you'd have more in 14-15 because you're in SNE and SNE was a 3 month party in 2014-15 lol Look how much Boston got lol Yeah it was all east of the CT river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: I'm seeing upper teens? Maybe single digits in the usual icebox spots? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In terms of verification scores, the Canadian model consistently ranks third. Recently, it has ranked second. didn't it have an upgrade last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Snowing here. Winds howled when it kicked up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave does this also… Its a awful model imo Yea its a bad model. Maybe it has some use that pro Mets know about though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GEFS/GEPS/EPS still showing warmup does not last long.....still don't totally love pattern on any of them for big snows though I think GEFS pattern has improved a tad since yesterday...general issue is +NAO so W ridge has to be perfect, if its too far west you cut, if its too far east you might see everything miss OTS....the GEPS from 360-384 looked best, maybe was trying to build a -NAO late and the PV was dropping S 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: You were favoring the CMC for Monday nights event which would have given the interior a huge snowstorm I don’t look at models beyond 24-72 hrs for specific snowfall output. That is one of the lowest skill parameters longer range for models. I wasn’t favoring the CMC or any other model for this system. Don’t mistake me discussing what x or y model says as an endorsement of that model in a model discussion thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Snow squall moving through here. Neat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: didn't it have an upgrade last year? Both models had upgrades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t look at models beyond 24-72 hrs for specific snowfall output. That is one of the lowest skill parameters longer range for models. I wasn’t favoring the CMC or any other model for this system. Don’t mistake me discussing what x or y model says as an endorsement of that model in a model discussion thread. Given how key the NRN stream is I like the GEFS for this as far as how does storm evolve...now as far as what does the WATL/SE Canada area look at as far as blocking? I'd probably blend the GEPS/EPS idea and see how it compares to the GEFS. I feel the GEFS gets outperformed on that so the eventual track of this thing whether it goes OTS or tries turning the corner/speed of the system may be better to see what those models are indicating in that sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We just got a snow squall warning on our phones. But so far nothing and it looks like the worst of it is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 When was the last time Tupelo Mississippi has more snow than CPK for a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Flurries started here about 10 mins ago. Pretty good intensity at first and now tapering off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I was going by actual NWS forecast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, Cyg said: Snow squall moving through here. Neat. No squall here in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Just some moderate flurries at best. Radar showing rain, but we know how that goes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Dark Star said: No squall here in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Just some moderate flurries at best. Radar showing rain, but we know how that goes... Just got moderately heavy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Just got moderately heavy here Yeah nice snow shower, but not accumulating with these temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Dark Star said: No squall here in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Just some moderate flurries at best. Radar showing rain, but we know how that goes... Crazy wind gusts though, rivaling what we had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah nice snow shower, but not accumulating with these temps. Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 44 here. Won’t be snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Huge flakes falling…looks very nice flakes trying to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huge flakes falling…looks very nice flakes trying to accumulate Half dollar size flakes easily here sticking to everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Like a squall line it’s coming together nicely for south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Given how key the NRN stream is I like the GEFS for this as far as how does storm evolve...now as far as what does the WATL/SE Canada area look at as far as blocking? I'd probably blend the GEPS/EPS idea and see how it compares to the GEFS. I feel the GEFS gets outperformed on that so the eventual track of this thing whether it goes OTS or tries turning the corner/speed of the system may be better to see what those models are indicating in that sector We have much higher forecast skill with cutters beyond 3-5 days like the two we just had. Since NYC will usually get mostly rain whether the low cuts 50 miles or 500 miles to the west. But a storm tracking within 50 miles east to 500 miles east of NYC will have a much different outcome. Anything from mixing, perfect benchmark snowstorm track, or complete suppression. I would love it if all the global and meso modeling centers kept specific model skill scores for East Coast storm tracks. Unfortunately, these hemispheric skill scores don’t always tell the story about how good the model is doing on East Coast storm tracks. We have seen periods when the CMC nailed a snowstorm forecast beyond 5 days like 1-31-21. Other times when the UKMET did great like the follow up storm after the January the 2016 blizzard. Then we have the Euro which was too far west with the January 2015 blizzard. And too suppressed with the 2016 blizzard. The Euro did a amazing with NEMO. Often times we have to wait until we get to within the NAM and RGEMs range to figure out the exact track and rain-snow line for NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: 44 here. Won’t be snow It could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have much higher forecast skill with cutters beyond 3-5 days like the two we just had. Since NYC will usually get mostly rain whether the low cuts 50 miles or 500 miles to the west. But a storm tracking within 50 miles east to 500 miles east of NYC will have a much different outcome. Anything from mixing, perfect benchmark snowstorm track, or complete suppression. I would love it if all the global and meso modeling centers kept specific model skill scores for East Coast storm tracks. Unfortunately, these hemispheric skill scores don’t always tell the story about how good the model is doing on East Coast storm tracks. We have seen periods when the CMC nailed a snowstorm forecast beyond 5 days like 1-31-21. Other times when the UKMET did great like the follow up storm after the January the 2016 blizzard. Then we have the Euro which was too far west with the January 2015 blizzard. And too suppressed with the 2016 blizzard. The Euro did a amazing with NEMO. Often times we have to wait until we get to within the NAM and RGEMs range to figure out the exact track and rain-snow line for NYC. people also got spoiled by 2010 when we had extreme blocking and an stj dominated pattern which helped the models nail everything a week out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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