January 2024

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not threading today, at least not yet. Too much melting much of the NYC subforum I95 east but its going to happen with a burst of snow (rain to snow LI) and winds during or within 2 hours after CFP, gust 45-55 MPH with iso power outages.  Will look at this more closely once it gets out of the Poconos at 1130A. 

Walt, will the Poconos be done with the snow squalls by noon time?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I think that first storm was suppressed due to the confluence and overpowering -5 SD -AO. There really wasn’t much Arctic air around in Fenruary 2010. NYC only dropped to 17 which is pretty mild for Fenruary minimum standards for us.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	3	0
2	2022	16	0
3	2021	17	0
4	2020	14	0
5	2019	11	0
6	2018	16	0
7	2017	19	0
8	2016	-1	0
9	2015	2	0
10	2014	9	0
11	2013	17	0
12	2012	20	0
13	2011	15	0
14	2010	17

 

wow back in the days when the AO and NAO both used to be extremely negative.

[Allsnow]

I’ll take a cold week with snow then cold dry. If the cold was over us we probably wouldn’t be getting snow this week 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Who wants arctic air ? I rather have it just cold enough for snow.

Enjoy Tuesday and next weekend before it gets mild for a brief time.

I do. But admittedly I’m also kind of a psycho lol. 

[SACRUS]

 

29 overnight now to 34 with partly cloudy.  Some showers/flurries in PA may get more isolated as they pass through.  Light snow Mon PM / Tue.  Overall cold 1/16 - 1/22.  Next shot at snow next weekend Fri late - Sun with artic front passing and trough digging through, we'll see if a wave can develop.  Peak cold 1/19 - 1/20 expect to get some sigle digits inland and low teens in the metro, perhaps colder.

 

 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow back in the days when the AO and NAO both used to be extremely negative.

If the block in 09-10 was a little weaker, than NYC could have challenged 95-96.

Data for October 1, 2009 through April 30, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
VINELAND 3.5 NW	CoCoRaHS	91.3
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	80.8
HAMMONTON 3.3 WSW	CoCoRaHS	79.6
FRANKLIN TWP 2.7 W	CoCoRaHS	79.0
TOMS RIVER	COOP	76.0

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 70 (1932) warm Jan
NYC: 70 (1932)
LGA: 64 (1995)

Lows:

EWR: 7 (1957)  - unofficial North Jersey/Newark was -7/-8 in 1914
NYC: -5 (1914)
LGA: 7 (1988)

 

Historical:

 

1863 - The greatest snowstorm of record for Cincinnati OH commenced, and a day later twenty inches of snow covered the ground. That total has remained far above the modern day record for Cincinnati of eleven inches of snow in one storm. (David Ludlum)

1882 - Southern California's greatest snow occurred on this date. Fifteen inches blanketed San Bernardino, and even San Diego reported a trace of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1882: Snow fell in southern California, with the highest amount of 15 inches at San Bernardino. Three feet of snow fell in Campo over four days and produced 8-foot drifts in spots. Two to five inches fell in outlying San Diego, including four inches along Poway Grade, 3 inches at El Cajon, and one inch in Poway. Five inches fell in Riverside. Light snow fell in Del Mar. Snowflakes fell but did not stick at San Diego Lindbergh Field. Birds and livestock were killed, telegraph lines were knocked down, and citrus crops were damaged.

1972: In Loma, Montana, the temperature soared from 54 degrees below zero to 49 degrees above zero on January 14-15, 1972. The 103-degree change is the greatest ever recorded in the world for a 24 hour period.

1979 - Chicago, IL, was in the midst of their second heaviest snow of record as, in thirty hours, the city was buried under 20.7 inches of snow. The twenty-nine inch snow cover following the storm was an all-time record for Chicago. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. By evening blustery northwest winds and temperatures near zero at Grand Forks ND were producing wind chill readings of 50 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful Pacific storm produced rain and high winds in the western U.S. In Nevada, a wind gust to 90 mph at Reno was an all-time record for that location, and wind gusts reached 106 mph southwest of Reno. A wind gust to 94 mph was recorded at nearby Windy Hill. Rainfall totals in Oregon ranged up to six inches at Wilson River. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm spread snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the northeastern U.S. Freezing rain in West Virginia caused fifteen traffic accidents in just a few minutes west of Charleston. Tennessee was deluged with up to 7.5 inches of rain. Two inches of rain near Clarksville TN left water in the streets as high as car doors.

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. blanketed the mountains of southwest Utah with 18 to 24 inches of snow, while sunshine and strong southerly winds helped temperatures warm into the 60s in the Central Plains Region. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 63 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2009: In Washington State, freezing fog and freezing drizzle enveloped much of the Inland Northwest during 13-23 January 2009. The area most affected by this was the high plateau region along Highway 2 between Wenatchee and Spokane.

[MANDA]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Archambault event if everything comes together like you said.

BUT....it has to break right.  Overall pattern could deliver, I like it but timing s/w 's and phasing a week out is dicey.

[IrishRob17]

First flakes of the day up here, just light flurries at the moment, 33/23

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

BUT....it has to break right.  Overall pattern could deliver, I like it but timing s/w 's and phasing a week out is dicey.

Dealing with phasing is always dicey 

[MANDA]

Off topic for this sub forum but -10 in Chicago this morning. 

[MANDA]

Buffalo web cams.

Looks really impressive at the moment and radar says is continues for several more hours before band shifts away from downtown.

 

https://buffalowebcam.com/

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

That’s amazing. 


.

All the cold dumped to our west. 

That was the 4th coldest playoff game in NFL history!

Remember we are only 1/3 of the country, you could have a trough west coast or plains. So very rough 1/3 chance?

Also percentage wise Western troughs happen more often through history.

Maybe due to the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean proximity?

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Had a few flurries just blow through. They say we could get up to an inch later today. If that does happen,  that will bring season total to only 12.5", leaving a long way to go to reach average. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Off topic for this sub forum but -10 in Chicago this morning. 

So far the PACNW wins the prize for most impressive Arctic cold record in the US this Arctic outbreak.

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’ll take a cold week with snow then cold dry. If the cold was over us we probably wouldn’t be getting snow this week 

Or December 1989 happens, we get the historically cold December then we get a bit of snow turning to rain back to unbelievable cold lol.

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that first storm was suppressed due to the confluence and overpowering -5 SD -AO. There really wasn’t much Arctic air around in Fenruary 2010. NYC only dropped to 17 which is pretty mild for February minimum temperature standards for us.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	3	0
2	2022	16	0
3	2021	17	0
4	2020	14	0
5	2019	11	0
6	2018	16	0
7	2017	19	0
8	2016	-1	0
9	2015	2	0
10	2014	9	0
11	2013	17	0
12	2012	20	0
13	2011	15	0
14	2010	17

 

NYC metro is almost always on the "border" of either out to sea or the rain snow line.  Without cold air, you really don't have any chance...

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the block in 09-10 was a little weaker, than NYC could have challenged 95-96.

Data for October 1, 2009 through April 30, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
VINELAND 3.5 NW	CoCoRaHS	91.3
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	80.8
HAMMONTON 3.3 WSW	CoCoRaHS	79.6
FRANKLIN TWP 2.7 W	CoCoRaHS	79.0
TOMS RIVER	COOP	76.0

 

wow was that the record snowiest winter in south NJ? the only other time I've seen snowfall of 90+ inches at our latitude at the coast was in 1995-96 when parts of Suffolk County reported between 90-96 inches of snow!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Or December 1989 happens, we get the historically cold December then we get a bit of snow turning to rain back to unbelievable cold lol.

 

DC got clocked that month

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So far Seattle wins the prize for most impressive Arctic cold record.

 

 

1968-69 was the only other one with Arctic cold in Seattle in an el nino, maybe that means something for snow in February for us this year lol.

1968-69 is proof that you can have both a snowy NW and snow NE in the same season!

1966-67 is an even better example of that!

I think we should get used to this, as I don't believe we are going to be getting a big west coast ridge anytime soon, so might as well look for ways to have both a snowy west and east coast.

 

[Dark Star]

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Had a few flurries just blow through. They say we could get up to an inch later today. If that does happen,  that will bring season total to only 12.5", leaving a long way to go to reach average. 

Seems that the closer to the coast (NYC and immediate suburbs) that it is "drying up"?

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All the cold dumped to our west. 

That was the 4th coldest playoff game in NFL history!

Remember we are only 1/3 of the country, you could have a trough west coast or plains. So very rough 1/3 chance?

Also percentage wise Western troughs happen more often through history.

Maybe due to the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean proximity?

 

We can't have perfectionist dreams.  The fact is that with where the Pacific is in its decadal oscillation we will have a semipermanent trough in that area, so we might as well look for winters that featured both a snowy west and east coast, because that's going to be our best hope probably for the next few winters.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that first storm was suppressed due to the confluence and overpowering -5 SD -AO. There really wasn’t much Arctic air around in Fenruary 2010. NYC only dropped to 17 which is pretty mild for February minimum temperature standards for us.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	3	0
2	2022	16	0
3	2021	17	0
4	2020	14	0
5	2019	11	0
6	2018	16	0
7	2017	19	0
8	2016	-1	0
9	2015	2	0
10	2014	9	0
11	2013	17	0
12	2012	20	0
13	2011	15	0
14	2010	17

 

That is correct, although parts of Staten Island did receive 8 inches so part of NYC did good. Pennsylvania did good too. More of a better west and south scenario due to the block.

What a year that was for Philly.

On a side note, Philly has at least two 30 plus snow events while CPK has 0. Further south so more moisture?

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

DC got clocked that month

Yup. Similar to the next storm per the NAMs depiction. DC would get 2 plus while we get mixed. Both cases DC does better.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All the cold dumped to our west. 

That was the 4th coldest playoff game in NFL history!

Remember we are only 1/3 of the country, you could have a trough west coast or plains. So very rough 1/3 chance?

Also percentage wise Western troughs happen more often through history.

Maybe due to the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean proximity?

 

But in those maps, either c or d would be good for us, so based on those numbers 38.9% of the time we should have normal to below normal temperatures, while 47.0% of the time we have normal to above normal temperatures (what happened to what's left over-- that doesn't add up to 100% lol.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup. Similar to the next storm per the NAMs depiction. DC would get 2 plus while we get mixed. Both cases DC does better.

This happened in the 80s a lot, look up Vet Day 1987 for how both DC and BOS can get a ton of snow while we are the hole in the middle of the doughnut lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That is correct, although parts of Staten Island did receive 8 inches so part of NYC did good. Pennsylvania did good too. More of a better west and south scenario due to the block.

What a year that was for Philly.

On a side note, Philly has at least two 30 plus snow events while CPK has 0. Further south so more moisture?

JFK had 30"+ in Jan 2016, so that might be the reason.  JFK is part of New York City ;-)

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We can't have perfectionist dreams.  The fact is that with where the Pacific is in its decadal oscillation we will have a semipermanent trough in that area, so we might as well look for winters that featured both a snowy west and east coast, because that's going to be our best hope probably for the next few winters.

 

Historically yes, this is why our epic periods (1955 through 1969 and 2000 through 2018) have been shorter than our "snow drought years" like 1970 through 1999, and unfortunately 2019 through now. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Historically yes, this is why our epic periods (1955 through 1969 and 2000 through 2018) have been shorter than our "snow drought years" like 1970 through 1999, and unfortunately 2019 through now. 

Did you see Tony's historical record for today: looks on this day in 1989 we had an icy storm:

1989 - A winter storm spread snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the northeastern U.S. Freezing rain in West Virginia caused fifteen traffic accidents in just a few minutes west of Charleston. Tennessee was deluged with up to 7.5 inches of rain. Two inches of rain near Clarksville TN left water in the streets as high as car doors.