Roger Smith Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Keep in mind, a map or any representation of differences in normals (1981-2010) to (1991-2020) is actually a measure of one-third of the difference between (1981-1990) and (2011-2020) because 1991-2010 are two thirds of both data sets. So if a map shows some location warmed by +1.0, it means 2011-2020 was 3.0 warmer than 1981-1990. Under the cold dome here, about -10 F which is probably within a few deg of record low max, about -20 F for overnight lows here. Sky is the same intense blue color that we had during the heat dome in June 2021. Trees are plastered with snow from days ago, and s.o.g. is about 20" in town, 30-40 inches in the nearby ski areas, and 15" down in the Columbia valley. These are near to slighty below average snow depths for our region. Only in January 1950 was there anything colder than what we're seeing across BC now, since 1950, a few other occasions were near equal to today. As I posted yesterday, Watson Lake Yukon had -74F on Jan 31, 1947 so their lowest value so far (-57F measured as -49.4 C) is not record-setting but there are only a few other cases of even -60 F, the 1947 spell was an outlier. Alberta and montana are probably closer to their all-time record lows, quite a heat island showing up for Edmonton, the station you're seeing (YEG) is 15-20 miles out of town, in the city it is running about 10F warmer. The Calgary airport readings are somewhat within suburban portions of their eat island, their airport (YYC) is a lot closer to downtown than YEG. Almost any other weather station in Alberta will have no urban effects, but you do get topographical variations in these calm cold spells, as solar radiation in January is negligible, so the overnight cold stays noticeable in valley bottoms all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 27 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Different world here. The cold front came through around 10:30 AM and it has been in the low 40s since. was it warmer and sunny before that? I was up in the Poconos a few days ago, only about half the snow that fell melted, there was still 6 inches on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: There were several sun showers and a rainbow in Mamaroneck about an hour ago. this was unexpected, all the media outlets said there would be nothing after 7 am lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Edit: re. [mention=18064]mannynyc[/mention] post of sim ref a few posts above Looks good for a squall there tomorrow. Too warm in NYC and LI to accumulate but surface wet bulbs and wet bulb zero heights are low enough for it to probably be snow if it stays coherent as it comes through, which both the HRRR and NAMnest are hinting at. If this happens, could be some brief fun, with heavy snow and 40-50 mph gusts. These soundings are pretty classic, featuring very deep mixing, very steep low to mid level lapse rates, sufficient moisture, and instability. Could get a quick coating over interior sections. I am thinking we could mix down most of the low level LLJ to 50-60 mph or even higher in spots along the squall with the low level lapse rates near all-time steepest levels on record for this time of year. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am thinking we could mix down most of the low level LLJ to 50-60 mph or even higher in spots along the squall with the low level lapse rates near all-time steepest levels on record for this time of year. Looks like it could be a rain/snow mix for us? It's too warm to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Peak gust here last night 39mph. with 1.80 inch of rain. Peak gust today 40mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Over in Milltown at the in-laws, cooling down for sure and still pretty nice wind gusts coming through. Excited for our modest arctic week considering where we’ve been for so long. Saying “I can’t wait for some snow this week” feels presumptive and desperate, so I’ll stop myself. But fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The most recent storm brought record daily rainfall amounts to a number of New England Cities and a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Record daily rainfall amounts through 5 pm included: Boston: 1.41" (old record:" 1.36", 1979) Hartford: 1.20" (old record: 1.02", 1964) Portland: 2.43": (old record: 1.22", 1979) ***4th highest daily January precipitation*** Providence: 1.97": (old record: 1.52", 1948) Worcester: 1.33" (old record: 1.23", 1975) Parts of the region saw temperatures soar into the lower 60s. New York City reached 60° while Newark topped out at 61°. Boston also reached 60°. In the wake of the most recent storm that brought some record daily rainfall amounts to parts of New England, exceptionally high temperatures, and a record tide to Portland, more wintry weather will be pushing into the region. A strong cold front will cross the region tomorrow. The frontal passage could touch off snow showers and perhaps a snow squall. Areas north and west of New York City have the greatest chance of experiencing a snow squall. Any snow squall could bring briefly heavy snow, strong winds, and a quick coating to an inch of snow. There is even a chance that the grass in Central Park could be whitened. Arctic air will continue to advance deeper into the Continental U.S. over coming days. This cold air will come eastward in modified fashion with the brunt of the cold never quite making it to the major cities of the northern Middle Atlantic region. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the middle of next week for the first time this season. Prospects for at least some snowfall will increase following the coming weekend. One such opportunity exists for January 16-17. At present, it appears that Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston will see a general 1"-3" snowfall. Some uncertainty persists. January 20-21 could afford another opportunity for snowfall. Beyond that, a warming trend could commence. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +23.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.442 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 11 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.127 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.237 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (0.8° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Peak gust here last night 39mph. with 1.80 inch of rain. Peak gust today 40mph. The winds today were definitely stronger. Does anyone have the numbers from JFK? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 No Friday the 19th snow thread for NYC subforum til at least tomorrow evening. Want to get through tomorrow's midday squalls first, then be sure about the happenings for Tuesday and set it up from there if its more than 1" snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gefs for the 20th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like it could be a rain/snow mix for us? It's too warm to be all snow. Yeah..the "cheap thrill " snow squalls looks like rain on most future casts..we can't catch a break here on the Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs for the 20th Good look but I have a flight on the 20th... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Over in Milltown at the in-laws, cooling down for sure and still pretty nice wind gusts coming through. Excited for our modest arctic week considering where we’ve been for so long. Saying “I can’t wait for some snow this week” feels presumptive and desperate, so I’ll stop myself. But fingers crossed. I stand corrected. I didn't think the cold air was going to advect down and across as quick as it did. I'm surprised there is any cold air. Kudos to those who stuck by the 10 day maps. They have been foretelling cold air for over 2 years now, kicking the forecast down the proverbial road until the next 7-10 day period. Cold came down Canada so fast. I figured the Pacific air was going to "get stuck" in west central Canada for the rest of the winter. Hopefully any subsequent warmups are short lived, at least for a while? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Looks like it could be a rain/snow mix for us? It's too warm to be all snow.With a wet bulb zero height of 950 mb plus the exceptionally steep low level lapse rates, even though the sounding shows 43 degrees, that could still produce snow or graupel. We've had squalls out here in the fall and early spring that temps reach the low 40s in between squalls coming through and quickly back down to the 30s under the squalls. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Peak gust now up to 43mph. Farmingdale 49mph in past hour. No advisories but probably should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: With a wet bulb zero height of 950 mb plus the exceptionally steep low level lapse rates, even though the sounding shows 43 degrees, that could still produce snow or graupel. We've had squalls out here in the fall and early spring that temps reach the low 40s in between squalls coming through and quickly back down to the 30s under the squalls. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yep, I remember one time it was close to 50 (in March I think?) and we had snow showers. It would be nice to know the highest temperature at which it's ever snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Yep, I remember one time it was close to 50 (in March I think?) and we had snow showers. It would be nice to know the highest temperature at which it's ever snowed. It’s difficult to know, because some observations inappropriately list hail as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 3 hours ago, bluewave said: I am thinking we could mix down most of the low level LLJ to 50-60 mph or even higher in spots along the squall with the low level lapse rates near all-time steepest levels on record for this time of year. Am in full agreement, and after Sun early AM review will probably start short fuse NOWCAST OBS thread for this. Adding on a couple of graphics for the wind, including R#. Looks to me like this will maximize in our subforum and for now, the guidance favors power outage producing 2 min whiteouts (Trace -0.3") and damaging wind ~I80 south including LI (50-60 MPH per Bluewave), while longer duration squalls to the north of I80 where roads will be come suddenly slippery with 1/2-2" amounts and wind gusts more or less 40-50 MPH. Tsecs for LGA using the HRRRX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 57 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Good look but I have a flight on the 20th... I have a flight as well late the 19th, where you heading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Road trip to Buffalo Seems like they have been the sweetspot area near the lakes for the past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, mannynyc said: Good look but I have a flight on the 20th... Someone has to take one for the team 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 45 minutes ago, Northof78 said: I have a flight as well late the 19th, where you heading... Des Moines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Eps looks good at 144. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 42 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Des Moines bring a jacket, or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps looks good at 144. Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Allsnow said: Yes Low locations also look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Low locations also look good Control looked KUish 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Control looked KUish This winter might be progressing like 2016. One and done storm unless February turns wintry . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gfs was very close with the 20th storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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