weatherpruf Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Not to derail but Canada Goose is an overpriced fashion brand. They’re very warm but also obscenely expensive. Can get a better made down jacket that’s as warm or warmer from Feathered Friends for a fraction. I’d take Arcteryx over CG too, or Patagonia. Expensive still, but more technically competent than CG’s offerings. Just IMHO. We went into a CG boutique in Reykjavik this November and the price for their parkas were absolutely laughable, was like $2500 for the women’s warmer variant. You can see those prices at Bloomie's in the Short Hills Mall....I remember reading about a working class kid who went to Harvard....they gave him 100 bucks to buy a coat, as he didn't have one. It's apparently a Harvard thing. The other students said like, dude, just go into town and get a Canada Goose...he said he didn't have the money; they said dude they take Venmo...they thought he just didn't have cash.....you can get a coat for 100 bucks or even less to handle winters at Harvard, but probably not for the temps in Edmonton..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Wow 72 degrees below normal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Another strong storm will bring rain and wind to the region tonight into tomorrow. The storm will bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts. In addition, the temperature will surge into the 50s across the region. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. Winds could gust past 50 mph. Meanwhile, an Arctic air mass that saw temperatures fall as low as -56° at Watson Lake, YT and -52° at Edmononton International Airport (where the all-time low of -56° could be challenged tomorrow or Sunday) in Canada this morning, will continue to advance deeper into the Continental U.S. over coming days. This cold air will come eastward in modified fashion with the brunt of the cold never quite making it to the major cities of the northern Middle Atlantic region. The low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the middle of next week for the first time this season. Prospects for at least some snowfall could also increase following the coming weekend. One such opportunity exists for January 16-17. Filtering for teleconnections (AO -3.5 to -1.5, NAO-, and PNA+ as currently forecast by the GEFS), there were 9 storms that brought 2" or more snow to at least one of the following cities during January 5-25, 1950-2023: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or Washington, DC. Those cities fared as follows: Boston: 2" or more: 67%; 4" or more: 44%; 6" or more: 11% New York City: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Philadelphia: 2" or more: 33%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Washington, DC: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% The 6"+ storm was the legendary January 1996 blizzard. The situation remains complex and uncertain resulting in model divergence and a lack of run-to-run continuity. Historic data would suggest that a light snowfall remains a plausible outcome. Developments in coming days will be crucial in determining whether this latest opportunity for snowfall will be realized or if the region's snow drought will continue. Both options remain on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +13.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.588 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.237 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.284 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (0.8° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Wow 72 degrees below normal Yeah, that’s why that area was one of the few spots in the US to get a decrease in climate normals rather than an increase. Same old pattern of the coldest departures dropping to our west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that’s why that area was one of the few spots in the US to get a decrease in climate normals rather than an increase. Same old pattern of the coldest departures dropping to our west. Per NWS they will be close to the states all time record low ⚠️ Bitter cold temperatures will impact the Northern Rockies tonight into Saturday morning. Overnight lows across western Montana will generally drop between 20 to 30 below zero, with areas along the divide, such as Seeley Lake, Potomac, and Polebridge reaching 40 below zero! To put this event into historical context, the all-time record low for any climate site in western Montana and north-central Idaho is -53F, set in Seeley Lake on January 7th, 1937. Our current forecast has -47F for Potomac, Montana. Now is the time to finish preparations for these extreme temperatures! Consider checking on family, friends, and the elderly and have a plan in place for pets and livestock. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Made it to 50 today, rain pushing in and approaching EPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 With today's highs and lows likely reached earlier this morning EWR: 48 / 40.3 (+6.8) thru the 12th NYC: 50 / 40.01 (+5.6) LGA: 50 / 40..4 (+5.2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Today's frigid data from Edmonton (-46.6C/-52F): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Would like to experience that kind of cold, but just once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 26 minutes ago, MANDA said: Would like to experience that kind of cold, but just once. Coldest temps here I’ve experienced are around zero, but the coldest I’ve ever felt was when we went to northern Iceland last winter and caught the tail end of a colder period. At night it was like 10-15 degrees but with 40 mile per hour wind. I’ve never experienced anything like that, you needed beefy insulation and a serious shell to mute that wind or you would turn into an iceblock. It’s well known how mild Iceland is for its latitude, and indeed it is relatively speaking. But the wind is the great equalizer there as it can absolutely ferocious and unrelenting. Despite, sections of the north do have a tundra climate which is quite cool to experience. The wind makes an absolutely enormous difference with this stuff though for sure. -10F is one thing, but -10 with any real wind would be scary. Can’t imagine colder than that. @MJO812 Go with your SO to Iceland in Nov or Dec and get up to Akureyri. See the sights around there (carefully). You’ll be in your glory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: When i was in Glacier in July of 21 we hit 105 or 106 in west glacier or columbia falls. Its 136 degrees colder right now. Thats insane. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 This is a really impressive arctic shot funneling in from Canada. Even as it moderates by the time it gets to us, highs below freezing and nights in the teens will be a huge turnaround from this time last year. Any snow we get will have some staying power. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 23 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: This is a really impressive arctic shot funneling in from Canada. Even as it moderates by the time it gets to us, highs below freezing and nights in the teens will be a huge turnaround from this time last year. Any snow we get will have some staying power. I’d take an inch and have that stick around a bit on the grass. Call it a mental health bandaid. I think we see flakes Tues, it’s just between literally a couple flakes and 1-2 inches. We’ll see what happens. @snowman19 had a nice read on things WRT where the models are at right now with the GFS folding to the Euro today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Cold frontal potential bands of snow or snow squalls with steep moist low level lapse rates,. a wind shift and gusty falling temps below freezing soon after the cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. I84 corridor inclusive of everything I78 north on Sunday (that's NNJ/se NYS/Pocs/CT): A band of snow or snow squalls Sunday will accompany a strong cold front across the area. Accumulations variable, but expect 1/2-2 inches except less than 1/2" valleys. Prime time ne PA/NNJ/se NYS 9AM-3PM, CT-MA Noon-6PM. Blustery visibility may briefly drop to 1/4 mile in a few spots so be prepared for variable driving conditions...manageable but be alert to alter speeds etc. Falling temps well below freezing in the afternoon will mean potential refreezing of any melted snow. NYC-LI: Probably melting upon contact but grass might get a slight coating and it could look impressive on time lapse if this comes to pass Sunday afternoon. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Keeping with the same winter theme of only brief cool downs between mild patterns. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Pacific pattern finally changed by February. You can really see it on the EPS. Game on for February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Keeping with the same winter theme of only brief cool downs between mild patterns. You were right about the -PDO and WPAC warm pool months ago. Pretty unbelievable that the west coast is in the freezer during a super El Niño. 72-73 actually turned out to be a much better analog than a lot of people were saying it was going to be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Cold frontal potential bands of snow or snow squalls with steep moist low level lapse rates,. a wind shift and gusty falling temps below freezing soon after the cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. I84 corridor inclusive of everything I78 north on Sunday (that's NNJ/se NYS/Pocs/CT): A band of snow or snow squalls Sunday will accompany a strong cold front across the area. Accumulations variable, but expect 1/2-2 inches except less than 1/2" valleys. Prime time ne PA/NNJ/se NYS 9AM-3PM, CT-MA Noon-6PM. Blustery visibility may briefly drop to 1/4 mile in a few spots so be prepared for variable driving conditions...manageable but be alert to alter speeds etc. Falling temps well below freezing in the afternoon will mean potential refreezing of any melted snow. NYC-LI: Probably melting upon contact but grass might get a slight coating and it could look impressive on time lapse if this comes to pass Sunday afternoon. The HRRR has unusually deep mixing with snow squalls and 50-60 mph gusts potential along the Arctic front tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 hours ago, SACRUS said: With today's highs and lows likely reached earlier this morning EWR: 48 / 40.3 (+6.8) thru the 12th NYC: 50 / 40.01 (+5.6) LGA: 50 / 40..4 (+5.2) Almost comical how warm it has become. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The HRRR has unusually deep mixing with snow squalls and 50-60 mph gusts potential along the Arctic front tomorrow. Good observation: Looks potent and would not surprise snow squall warnings PA/NJ/CT tomorrow. Just a matter of what sticks. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The way this winter is going parts of NYC metro might accumulate just as much or more snow from tomorrows snow squall compared to the possible 1/16 event............and still not break the snow drought 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Up to 60 and 0.95 in the bucket warm few hours before the chill moves in. Mon PM - Tue looking more light and better if you are south and east. Story the next 7- 10 days is overall cold with peak cold 1/19 - 1/21 single digits inland / teens or lower in the metro sections. Beyond there moderation to end the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1932) NYC: 68 (1932) LGA: 63 (2017) Lows: EWR: 0 (1981) the string of early 1980s record lows this stretch of January NYC: -3 (1914) LGA: 4 (1981) Historical: 1862: Known as the Great Flood of 1862, a series of storms from December 1861 to January 1862 produced the largest flood in the recorded history of Oregon, Nevada, and California. Estimated property damage in California alone was $10 million in 1862 dollars. More than 200,000 head of cattle lost their lives. The State of California went bankrupt, and the economy evolved from ranching to farm-based. The same areas are expected to be flooded again if another ARkStorm (USGS name) impacts California, which could cause over $750 billion (2011 USD), making it more disastrous than California's long-overdue major earthquake. California is currently overdue for a Megastorm, and such an event would have severe impacts on the entire U.S. economy. 1886 - A great blizzard struck the state of Kansas without warning. The storm claimed 50 to 100 lives, and eighty percent of the cattle in the state. (David Ludlum) 1888 - The mercury plunged to 65 degrees below zero at Fort Keough, located near Miles City MT. The reading stood as a record for the continental U.S. for sixty-six years. (David Ludlum) 1912 - The temperature at Oakland, MD, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1950: January 1950 was one of the worst winter months on record for Seattle, Washington, and surrounding areas. By the end of the month, Seattle measured 57.2 inches of snow, the most snowfall in any month since records began in 1894. The normal January snowfall is 1.4 inches. On this day, a crippling blizzard produced 40 to 50 mph winds and an astounding 20 inches. 1987 - Dry and mild weather prevailed across the country. Nineteen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for the date, including Grand Island NE with a reading of 67 degrees. (National Weather Summary) 1988 - A fast moving cold front ushered arctic cold into the north central and northeastern U.S. Mason City IA reported a wind chill reading of 51 degrees below zero, and Greenville ME reported a wind chill of 63 degrees below zero. Winds along the cold front gusted to 63 mph at Rochester NY, and a thunderstorm along the cold front produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY, along with snow and sleet. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - Friday the 13th was bad luck primarily for the south central U.S. as an upper level weather disturbance spread a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain across Texas and Oklahoma. Snowfall totals in central Oklahoma ranged up to 8.5 inches at Norman. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. produced more than a twelve inches of snow in the mountains of California and Nevada. In northern California, Huntington Lake was buried under 40 inches of snow, and up to 20 inches was reported in northeastern Nevada. Heavy rain soaked some of the lower elevations of California. Gibraltar Dam CA was drenched with 5.33 inches of rain in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Temps And wind chill https://cdn.apwx.net/img/maps/us/weather/national/us-apparent-temperatures-f-1536x1024.jpg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 16 hours ago, Allsnow said: Wow 72 degrees below normal When was the last time anywhere in the CONUS got to -60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The way this winter is going parts of NYC metro might accumulate just as much or more snow from tomorrows snow squall compared to the possible 1/16 event............and still not break the snow drought and then we have the late next week storm to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Keeping with the same winter theme of only brief cool downs between mild patterns. With that said, we are going to be below freezing for highs for 7 consecutive days, that's pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 10 hours ago, BxEngine said: When i was in Glacier in July of 21 we hit 105 or 106 in west glacier or columbia falls. Its 136 degrees colder right now. Thats insane. extreme temps are absolutely awesome, some of the most interesting of all weather changes. Rapid City and Spearfish can have rise or drop 100 degrees in a few hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now