snowman19 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the coldest departures next week will drop to our West like we have been seeing in recent years. Then a quick moderation in temperatures. Very difficult to get any sustained cold here. I think the -PDO is playing more of a role here than a lot of folks thought initially, as is the WPAC warm pool with MJO waves propagating in the IO and Maritime Continent, which is definitely not the norm for tropical convective forcing with a super El Niño in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 40 and been hovering near there 39/41 for several hours. Some clouds but should clear and allow a bit of drying before Saturdays rains and winds. Overall all cold to some arctic cold 1/14 - 1/23. Colder in the wake of this Saturdy storms between 1/14-1/17. Shot at snow Mon - Tue offshore low could favors S/ E sections. Very cold 1/19 - 1/22 period and we'll see with the sharp trough if we can spin up a low. Looks to moderate towards the end of the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 31 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: agreed. This isnt our arctic outbreak. But it will be winter cold, and we will be in the game for a couple of of storms. I don't know who would want an arctic outbreak without snow anyway, in 2023 we had two such arctic outbreaks and no snow in either of them. If you want snow, you want modified arctic air, not single digit cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (2020) NYC: 69 (2020) LGA: 66 (2020) Lows: EWR: -2 (1982) NYC: 3 (1968) LGA: 4 (1982) Historical: 1898: An estimated F4 tornado struck the city of Fort Smith, Arkansas, just before midnight. The tornado, which touched down about 100 miles southwest of town, killed 55 people and injured 113 others along its track. 1918 - A tremendous blizzard completely immobilized the Midwest, stopping mail service for two weeks. The vast storm then moved through the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Winds reached 60 mph at Toledo OH, and the temperature plunged from 28 above to 15 below zero during passage of the cold front. (David Ludlum) 1918: A powerful area of low pressure brought snow and bitterly cold temperatures to Chattanooga, Little Rock, and Shreveport. Birmingham, Alabama, picked up an inch of snow. In far southeastern Alabama, an estimated F3 tornado virtually damaged every building in the town of Webb. The tornado leveled one rural school, killing one teacher and seven students. Please note, the date on the historical marker is an error. January 10th in 1918 was a Thursday. 1963: An F2 tornado was reported in Scott County, Indiana, north of Louisville, Kentucky. It was on the ground for 5 miles north of Scottsburg and damaged or destroyed several homes and barns. 1972 - Downslope winds hit the eastern slopes of the Rockies in northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Boulder CO reported wind gusts to 143 mph and twenty-five million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. buried the mountains of central Vermont with up to 26 inches of snow, and snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 27 inches at Telos Lake. Winds gusted to 45 mph at Newark NJ and Albany NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Snow and high winds in Utah resulted in a fifty car pile-up along Interstate 15. Winds in Wyoming gusted to 115 mph at Rendezvous Peak. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A cold front which the previous day produced 21 inches of snow at Stampede Pass WA and wind gusts to 75 mph at Mammoth Lakes CA, spread snow across Colorado. Totals in Colorado ranged up to 17 inches at Steamboat Springs. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Strong northwesterly winds associated with a deep low pressure system crossing the Upper Great Lakes Region ushered cold air into the central U.S. Winds gusted to 72 mph at Fort Dodge IA, and wind gusts reached 75 mph at Yankton SD. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in northwestern Minnesota. Squalls produced heavy snow in parts of Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan, with 16 inches reported at Wakefield. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2008 - Iraqis in Baghdad woke up to the novelty of falling snowflakes as the city experienced its first snowfall in about 100 years. (NCDC) 2010: Bitter cold temperatures gripped central and southern Florida with lows in the teens and 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Cold breaching the upper plains 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think the -PDO is playing more of a role here than a lot of folks thought initially, as is the WPAC warm pool with MJO waves propagating in the IO and Maritime Continent, which is definitely not the norm for tropical convective forcing with a super El Niño in place Yeah, those Niña-like influences have loomed large over our climate since the epic summer in March 2012 for the Great Lakes area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Expansive area of -30C to -40C cold across central Canada this morning. Currently -43C at Yellowknife, NWT and -46C at Old Crow,YT. Think it is safe to say the cold has moved to our side of the pole....at least for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I don't know who would want an arctic outbreak without snow anyway, in 2023 we had two such arctic outbreaks and no snow in either of them. If you want snow, you want modified arctic air, not single digit cold. How about single digit cold, followed by modified arctic air? This way we can have snow, and keep it too... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Expansive area of -30C to -40C cold across central Canada this morning. Currently -43C at Yellowknife, NWT and -46C at Old Crow,YT. Think it is safe to say the cold has moved to our side of the pole....at least for now. Chill is building 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Dark Star said: How about single digit cold, followed by modified arctic air? This way we can have snow, and keep it too... All time record winter cold daily high temps are going to be challenged in the center of the country with this outbreak (per TWC most records there were from the 70s). Definitely will be modified as it's pulled east by the cutter, however should at least put as below average for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: All time record winter cold daily high temps are going to be challenged in the center of the country with this outbreak (per TWC most records there were from the 70s). Definitely will be modified as it's pulled east by the cutter, however should at least put as below average for a while. I look forward to the news that it's actually cold because of climate change (Yes, yes, it is occurring, and I believe it), because god forbid we get hot or cold or snow or rain anymore without wet and wild AGW action to generate clicks to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I don't know who would want an arctic outbreak without snow anyway, in 2023 we had two such arctic outbreaks and no snow in either of them. If you want snow, you want modified arctic air, not single digit cold. Last February 4th was all about the cold air drain down the Hudson Valley on the NNW flow. The Great Lakes have been getting so warm and ice free into the winter, that it’s tough for NYC to drop under 5°these days on a W to NW flow. I can remember several westerly flow events in the 70s and 80s when NYC made to around 0°. But the much warmer lakes make that a challenge these days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Last February 4th was all about the cold air drain down the Hudson Valley on the NNW flow. The Great Lakes have been getting so warm and ice free into the winter, that it’s tough for NYC to drop under 5°these days on a W to NW flow. I can remember several westerly flow events in the 70s and 80s when NYC made to around 0°. But the much warmer lakes make that a challenge these days. Yes, I think Christmas 1980 was one of those days ! I can't even think of us ever reaching zero in December anymore! And how did we ever get to zero on Valentine's Day in 2016 in such a mild winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 we don't want the PV sitting over our heads. Cold and DRY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Last February 4th was all about the cold air drain down the Hudson Valley on the NNW flow. The Great Lakes have been getting so warm and ice free into the winter, that it’s tough for NYC to drop under 5°these days on a W to NW flow. I can remember several westerly flow events in the 70s and 80s when NYC made to around 0°. But the much warmer lakes make that a challenge these days. That's actually super interesting as to why we haven't had as many subzero readings here in the past 15 years (we've had them multiple times at MMU, less so at CPK for this and other reasons). Didn't consider the part about the warm lakes. Thanks for sharing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, North and West said: That's actually super interesting as to why we haven't had as many subzero readings here in the past 15 years (we've had them multiple times at MMU, less so at CPK for this and other reasons). Didn't consider the part about the warm lakes. Thanks for sharing. Also heat island effect is growing YOY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I don't know who would want an arctic outbreak without snow anyway, in 2023 we had two such arctic outbreaks and no snow in either of them. If you want snow, you want modified arctic air, not single digit cold. I wish this site had a ^This reaction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Also heat island effect is growing YOY. I will once again say that none of those arctic outbreaks were really that interesting because 90% of the time when you have such an outbreak, the pattern is suppressed and all you get is dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Also heat island effect is growing YOY. The heat island in NYC has been fairly stable for a long time. They have actually been doing slightly better than the rural areas relative to the record the absolute coldest temperatures. At least NYC was able to dip below 0° as recently as 2016. But POU hasn’t been able to make it to -15 or lower since 1994. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 -30 1 2 1967 -23 0 - 1950 -23 2 3 1954 -22 0 4 1994 -20 29 - 1981 -20 8 - 1968 -20 0 5 1984 -18 0 - 1971 -18 0 - 1964 -18 0 - 1945 -18 2 6 1970 -16 0 - 1963 -16 0 - 1934 -16 2 7 1988 -15 0 - 1979 -15 0 - 1965 -15 0 - 1943 -15 1 - 1933 -15 1 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -15 0 2 1917 -13 0 3 1943 -8 0 4 1933 -6 0 - 1918 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 - 1882 -6 0 - 1880 -6 1 5 1914 -5 0 - 1896 -5 0 6 1942 -4 0 - 1904 -4 0 - 1895 -4 1 - 1886 -4 0 - 1879 -4 2 7 1936 -3 0 - 1912 -3 0 - 1884 -3 0 - 1881 -3 3 - 1875 -3 2 8 1994 -2 0 - 1985 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0 - 1925 -2 0 - 1922 -2 0 - 1920 -2 0 - 1885 -2 0 - 1871 -2 2 9 2016 -1 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: we don't want the PV sitting over our heads. Cold and DRY. I just want to offer that while I agree we don’t want that for snow chances which is what the majority of us care about, just for climo purposes it’s very notable how that *hasn’t* been happening as well as what’s causing that. We should be seeing perturbations of the vortex down our ways occasionally no? Regardless of if it’s good or bad for snow chances is all I mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I will once again say that none of those arctic outbreaks were really that interesting because 90% of the time when you have such an outbreak, the pattern is suppressed and all you get is dry and cold. The 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018 had single digits around the storm. It makes mixed precip near the coast less likely. It also allows us to retain snowpack longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Surprised this hasn't been posted yet - GFS looking like the Euro now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 and 12Z CMC is snowy along/NW of 95 with precip issues SE of 95 - hopefully that won't be an issue with the cold air in place... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Surprised this hasn't been posted yet - GFS looking like the Euro now... There's a thread for this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Surprised this hasn't been posted yet - GFS looking like the Euro now... Maybe we get our first decent event in 2 years. Figures, I get an offer to come out of retirement and now we'll get the snow.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro is very flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Big improvements on the GFS/UK and even CMC (except for 95 and SE) for snow in our area, but the Euro is a suppressed whiff after several runs in a row of decent snowfall. It's never easy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Upcoming storms: January 12-13: Model continuity remains good. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts remains likely. Strong winds gusting toward or above 50 mph, significant beach erosion, and coastal flooding are also likely. January 16-17: The guidance continues to offer a wide range of solutions. The 12z GFS shows a moderate to significant snowfall across the region. The 12z ECMWF has now suppresses the development and track of the storm well to the south and east of the region. Under the ECMWF's scenario, the regional snow drought would continue. Confidence in the development of a storm is medium. Confidence in details such as location of development, track and outcomes remains low. The NBE has taken a middle ground of sorts showing about 3" in New York City. Historically, most events in the forecast pattern have been light (<2") in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The single exception is the Blizzard of January 1996. Odds may lean somewhat toward a lighter event than a heavy one. Overall, the situation is complex. Small changes in details concerning the synoptic pattern and short wave(s) can have a significant impact. Due to the level of uncertainty, all of the potential solutions remain on the table right now. Finally, a strong shot of cold air should advance into the region by midweek next week. New York City could see its first teens of the season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, MANDA said: Expansive area of -30C to -40C cold across central Canada this morning. Currently -43C at Yellowknife, NWT and -46C at Old Crow,YT. Think it is safe to say the cold has moved to our side of the pole....at least for now. Rather impressive and dangerous cold out west. Red Deer, AB (in between Calgary/Edmonton) forecasted to drop to -50F over the next 2 nights which is only a degree or two away from the all-time Jan record low of -52F. Records go back to 1904 there. Let's see if they break it. Hoping it moves east and helps increase all of our snow chances. Two sub 980 low's cutting through the lakes this week, which in an ideal world would be amazing for us, but it's been way too warm. We got 2" with the first storm followed by an inch of rain and maybe another 4" tomorrow then rain showers lol. This pattern blows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: All time record winter cold daily high temps are going to be challenged in the center of the country with this outbreak (per TWC most records there were from the 70s). Definitely will be modified as it's pulled east by the cutter, however should at least put as below average for a while. Sorry, I was responding to the comment by LibertyBell. I replied with what I wanted, not what the recent progs are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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