Franklin0529 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs has a clipper dropping down at 180 hours. Haven't seen those in years. Deep winter coming 16-17th still disorganized scraper. Kinda where we want it at day 5.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has a clipper dropping down at 180 hours. Haven't seen those in years. Deep winter coming I remember tracking clippers lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: 16-17th still disorganized scraper. Kinda where we want it at day 5.5 Yep Better ridge out west. It's getting there. Gfs is going to be close with the 20th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep Better ridge out west. It's getting there. Gfs is going to be close with the 20th That's the one that has big dog potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Cmc isn't terrible for the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 LOL UKMET goes from New Orleans to Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro pretty similar at 0Z vs. 12Z, apart from a ~50 mile shift SE in the snow shield, which is noise at 5-6 days out; this includes surface temps in the 20s throughout the event, so no mixing/melting issues, as modeled... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks like the coldest departures next week will drop to our West like we have been seeing in recent years. Then a quick moderation in temperatures. Very difficult to get any sustained cold here. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the coldest departures next week will drop to our West like we have been seeing in recent years. Then a quick moderation in temperatures. Very difficult to get any sustained cold here. Well at least you get to see snow now that you moved. What’s terrible stretch for the island. Hopefully our one shot at redemption next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Well at least you get to see snow now that you moved. What’s terrible stretch for the island. Hopefully our one shot at redemption next week. Maybe two shots next week ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Well at least you get to see snow now that you moved. What’s terrible stretch for the island. Hopefully our one shot at redemption next week. There will be plenty of cold coming up with this pattern and snow chances. A relaxation period will occur but should be short lived before we possibly get a sustained winter pattern in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, LibertyBell said: Maybe two shots next week ;-) One storm might affect the other storm so not sure . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, LibertyBell said: Maybe two shots next week ;-) We are both lynbrook guys now, and we for sure had at least a half an inch during the last storm. Im right at the northern tip of lynbrook. But the yard was def snow covered for a bit. So we aren’t striking out so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Well at least you get to see snow now that you moved. What’s terrible stretch for the island. Hopefully our one shot at redemption next week. I only picked up 2” mostly on the grass here before the rain and warmth melted it. I am concerned about the beach erosion on Long Island continuing into the fall. It looks like a very active hurricane season coming up with the record Atlantic SSTs and La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, bluewave said: I only picked up 2” mostly on the grass here before the rain and warmth melted it. I am concerned about the beach erosion on Long Island continuing into the fall. It looks like a very active hurricane season coming up with the record Atlantic SSTs and La Niña. The beaches can’t even take the next storm. Im currently watching the pacific blvd cam and and the waters to the boardwalk. All that sand added after sandy is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The beaches can’t even take the next storm. Im currently watching the pacific blvd cam and and the waters to the boardwalk. All that sand added after sandy is gone. Parts of Fire Island lost all the sand replenished by the army corps after Sandy. I don’t know how coastal sections will manage in the coming decades with continued extreme weather and rising sea levels. We can adapt to this warming climate with more extreme storms. But sea level rise is going to be our greatest challenge next 100 years and beyond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We are both lynbrook guys now, and we for sure had at least a half an inch during the last storm. Im right at the northern tip of lynbrook. But the yard was def snow covered for a bit. So we aren’t striking out so to speak. We're hoping to exceed last year-- not a very high goal I know, but small steps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Parts of Fire Island lost all the sand replenished by the army corps after Sandy. I don’t know how coastal sections will manage in the coming decades with continued extreme weather and rising sea levels. We can adapt to this warming climate with more extreme storms. But sea level rise is going to be our greatest challenge next 100 years and beyond. It's going to cause a lot more mass migrations.... We've probably permanently exceeded +1.5C, so that first limit has already been breached, +2.0C is next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: I only picked up 2” mostly on the grass here before the rain and warmth melted it. I am concerned about the beach erosion on Long Island continuing into the fall. It looks like a very active hurricane season coming up with the record Atlantic SSTs and La Niña. We already had an active tropical season with 20 storms lol (but only 1 landfall), how much more active can it get, do you think we could get 30 storms again? And do you think we could have a very hot summer too with 30+ 90 degree highs and maybe even a 100+ degree high or more (because of the el nino to la nina transition?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I remember tracking clippers lol We brought back the coastal hugger from the dead. It's the clipper's turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Parts of Fire Island lost all the sand replenished by the army corps after Sandy. I don’t know how coastal sections will manage in the coming decades with continued extreme weather and rising sea levels. We can adapt to this warming climate with more extreme storms. But sea level rise is going to be our greatest challenge next 100 years and beyond. I am very concerned about the coming hurricane season. Early thoughts are that it will be the most devastating season yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Watched TWC this morning. Some serious cold coming to the US! Apparently records may fall in the center of the country (record high temps from the late 70s). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Well, it is dead in here the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The beaches can’t even take the next storm. Im currently watching the pacific blvd cam and and the waters to the boardwalk. All that sand added after sandy is gone. I lived on the beach in Wading River my whole life. It happens. It sucks. They will replenish in spring. The noreaster winters are the worst for beach erosion. 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the coldest departures next week will drop to our West like we have been seeing in recent years. Then a quick moderation in temperatures. Very difficult to get any sustained cold here. you’re a good poster, but you have a very strong glass half empty view of winter around here. it undermines your skill. Next week is going to be cold for the type of winter (shit) we’ve had so far. Two legitimate snow chances. And if past el Ninos are any indication, that may be it. Loaded February isnt a guarantee. So, glass half full and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I lived on the beach in Wading River my whole life. It happens. It sucks. They will replenish in spring. The noreaster winters are the worst for beach erosion. you’re a good poster, but you have a very strong glass half empty view of winter around here. it undermines your skill. Next week is going to be cold for the type of winter (shit) we’ve had so far. Two legitimate snow chances. And if past el Ninos are any indication, that may be it. Loaded February isnt a guarantee. So, glass half full and enjoy it. a 2015-2016 type winter but about 2 degrees colder (because of a slightly less intense el nino) would be really nice, especially considering how many close calls there were that February (I remember the storm where the crane fell in NYC and also the Superbowl snowstorm.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I lived on the beach in Wading River my whole life. It happens. It sucks. They will replenish in spring. The noreaster winters are the worst for beach erosion. you’re a good poster, but you have a very strong glass half empty view of winter around here. it undermines your skill. Next week is going to be cold for the type of winter (shit) we’ve had so far. Two legitimate snow chances. And if past el Ninos are any indication, that may be it. Loaded February isnt a guarantee. So, glass half full and enjoy it. While it’s going to feel cold here next week compared to how warm it has been, it doesn’t look like it will match the Arctic outbreak for us last February when NYC got down to 3°. Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ HARRISON COOP 3 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 3 NY SYOSSET COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 5 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 7 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: I lived on the beach in Wading River my whole life. It happens. It sucks. They will replenish in spring. The noreaster winters are the worst for beach erosion. you’re a good poster, but you have a very strong glass half empty view of winter around here. it undermines your skill. Next week is going to be cold for the type of winter (shit) we’ve had so far. Two legitimate snow chances. And if past el Ninos are any indication, that may be it. Loaded February isnt a guarantee. So, glass half full and enjoy it. While you are right on the money about nor’easters, those are worse for the north shore and Jersey. These have been cutters with SE winds and have had extremely large fetch’s. That’s why south facing beaches are getting rocked. It’s really a serious situation. Our life guard shack at Jones beach which was obviously rebuilt after sandy, hasn’t flooded since. Well it had feet of water the last storm. Meaning all the equipment we store over winter is screwed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: While it’s going to feel cold here next week compared to how warm it has been, it doesn’t look like it will match the Arctic outbreak for us last February when NYC got down to 3°. Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ HARRISON COOP 3 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 3 NY SYOSSET COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 5 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 7 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 9 agreed. This isnt our arctic outbreak. But it will be winter cold, and we will be in the game for a couple of of storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: While you are right on the money about nor’easters, those are worse for the north shore and Jersey. These have been cutters with SE winds and have had extremely large fetch’s. That’s why south facing beaches are getting rocked. It’s really a serious situation. Our life fairs shack at Jones beach which was obviously rebuilt after sandy, hasn’t flooded since. Well it had feet of water the last storm. Meaning all the equipment we store over winter is screwed. Fire Island will have more inlets cut in the coming decades and it will be up to the army corps whether they want to leave or plug. But this will present challenges for back bay flooding since the tidal range in the GSB could increase with more inlets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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