January 2024

[MANDA]

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

50/50 ULL with decaying block shows up afterwards. just need a strong wave

Ideally a nicely timed phasing of a moist southern branch feature and northern stream s/w.  Am I asking too much ?!

[bluewave]

It’s really unusual to get two storms this strong only 3 days apart. I think the wave breaking activity caused by this is going to affect the storm tracks for next week. Just don’t have confidence in any of the model forecast storm tracks for next week yet. Especially if we get the weekend system to retrograde and have vorts trying to rotate around it. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

the baseball season or the winter of 95-96?

The Yankees played their home opened in the snow, it was fun seeing the snow stick to their baseball caps lol

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, Asheville, NC picked up 3.99" of rain. That shattered the daily mark of 1.23" from 1921. It was also Asheville's second highest daily precipitation on record for January. Only January 7, 1998, another strong El Niño winter, saw more with 4.42".

The storm responsible will bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region tonight into tomorrow. A general 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The storm will also produce damaging winds with gusts of 50 mph to 60 mph with even higher gusts on parts of Long Island and the Connecticut shore. Moderate to major coastal flooding and significant beach erosion are likely. The temperature will likely surge into the middle 50s in New York City and Newark and toward or above 60° in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Clouds will break tomorrow, but a gusty wind will persist. Temperatures will fall during the afternoon.

Another strong storm could bring additional rain and wind to the region Friday into Saturday.

Meanwhile, a genuine Arctic air mass will be slowly advancing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter beginning on Sunday or Monday. Prospects for snow could also increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing.

The SOI was +1.51 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.258 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On January 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.261 (RMM). The January 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.484 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.3° (0.6° above normal).

 

[Santa Claus]

yo @wdrag tell me about monday tuesday lol are we doing this again

[SACRUS]

Up to 59 here,  1.35 in the bucket and still mod to heavy rain. Winds gusting to 25- 35 now.

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

yo @wdrag tell me about monday tuesday lol are we doing this again

Scattered flurries

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Scattered flurries

0Z CMC rain to start 1/16 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

0Z CMC rain to start

It's over

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's over

can't say its over for 1/16 until the EURO says it is - it has shown several consistent snowstorm runs in a row - lets see if 0Z run keeps showing this

[LoboLeader1]

57F here. Judging from radar, it looks like the heaviest portion of the rain clears out of here after 1:30AM. Had a wind gust earlier of 50MPH. 

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro still shows a storm off the coast for 1/16 - IMO with that track , 986 LP and much colder air involved then last weekend this has a better potential for snow in the immediate NYC metro then last weekend regardless of what this run says - too early for rain/snow lines anyways....

[wdrag]

7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

yo @wdrag tell me about monday tuesday lol are we doing this again

Mon-Tue: not threading til 6P, if then.  I'm pretty sure we'll have light-moderate event that will include snow/ice I84 corridor, possibly down to I95 with LI problematic and for now mostly wet there with only a touch of snow sleet.  EPS backed off slightly and the GEFS-CMCE dont want to increase snow accum and the NAEFS is east of us. So, best to wait through at least the 12z/10 cycle, possibly beyond.

Also looking at Jan 18-20 and Jan 24 for a possibly colder snowier event-again light to moderate but NYC/LI confidence on 1"+ snow is uncertain and NAEFS again too our south and east with the qpf on both, for now. 

 

Just have to wait and ride out this Friday night-Sat and cleanup some debris both from this one today and then again this weekend.

 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's over

What

[Mikeymac5306]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's over

 

[Santa Claus]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Mon-Tue: not threading til 6P, if then.  I'm pretty sure we'll have light-moderate event that will include snow/ice I84 corridor, possibly down to I95 with LI problematic and for now mostly wet there with only a touch of snow sleet.  EPS backed off slightly and the GEFS-CMCE dont want to increase snow accum and the NAEFS is east of us. So, best to wait through at least the 12z/10 cycle, possibly beyond.

Also looking at Jan 18-20 and Jan 24 for a possibly colder snowier event-again light to moderate but NYC/LI confidence on 1"+ snow is uncertain and NAEFS again too our south and east with the qpf on both, for now. 

 

Just have to wait and ride out this Friday night-Sat and cleanup some debris both from this one today and then again this weekend.

 

ty handsome

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we may continue with the same storm track issues next week. Either a strung out and weak storm not able to pull in the colder air from the NW for coastal sections. Or a super amped storm like the Euro that draws in warm air off the Atlantic. 

Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?

[Volcanic Winter]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?

Enough to cause more problematic warmth you think, or just keep things active? Hard to know at this point I’m assuming?

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?

Mega ridge, 100 degrees likely

[Dark Star]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?

IF there is colder air around, it will only (most likely) help).  While the ocean has not cooled (considerably) since January 6th, the storm ran into at best marginal cold air.  At least the progged storm for January 16th will have some colder air to work with, eliminating at least one variable...

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Enough to cause more problematic warmth you think, or just keep things active? Hard to know at this point I’m assuming?

what do you think the answer to that question is going to be

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Enough to cause more problematic warmth you think, or just keep things active? Hard to know at this point I’m assuming?

I’m not sure what happens in February yet. Going to depend on whether the MJO can propogate in 8-1-2

[EastonSN+]

Not saying the EURO will be correct, however it's kind of nice seeing coastal "huggers" again. I thought they were extinct lol.

Now that the huggers are back from extinction let's bring back the Alberta clippers.

Great for the local ski resorts.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I don’t want to go too far down this rabbit hole, but I think our current 7 year winter suckage is a combo of background warming, natural cycles that are unfavorable, and bad luck. We’ve had troughs favoring the west in winter for years now, but up until winter 16-17 it was the opposite with a seemingly permanent ridge out west. Remember the “ridiculously resilient ridge” out west? Sucked for them but we loved it. That cycle flipped HARD. I think that switch will flip again at some point to favor a trough in the east in winter, but background warming will probably mean it’s not as productive as it would have been in the previous cycle. 

Think this was a great post by WxUSAF (we had a great 2017/2018 as the only caveat).

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not saying the EURO will be correct, however it's kind of nice seeing coastal "huggers" again. I thought they were extinct lol.

Now that the huggers are back from extinction let's bring back the Alberta clippers.

Great for the local ski resorts.

Ensembles are way weaker so this storm isn't set in stone yet.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we may continue with the same storm track issues next week. Either a strung out and weak storm not able to pull in the colder air from the NW for coastal sections. Or a super amped storm like the Euro that draws in warm air off the Atlantic. 

If it doesn't snow in this upcoming pattern on the coast then I'm not sure what kind of pattern we need for snow. 

 

Next week will be cold enough for snow 

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What

Next week looks like rain for the coast

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 60 with 2.56 inches in the bucket and a peak wind gust of 40.  Now down to 47 and cloudy with some breaks.  Busy pattern next up of the duet is Sat with rain / winds before much colder air comes in 1/15.  The storm 1/16-17 details to be worked out on track and if its more rain or some snow perhaps similar to last weekend 1/6 storm.  Overall colder through 1/23 storm timing and tracks the caveat on snowfall and pattern delivery.  Core of upcming  Cold 1/17-18 , 1/20 -22.

 

[wdrag]

On next week: I'm thinking best cols shots AFTER Jan 15-16, and Jan 18-20 events. 

I think the cutter threat for next week is less likely than what has. been modeled for this week. It will take quite some sharpening of the ensemble 5H and imo, its a somewhat more positively tilted trough initially that may go neutral by the 16th. That permits more of a I95 track than inland.  The 06z/10 EPS continues developing an Ohio Valley to northeast USA snow risk and ice on the se edge. 

I am waiting out ensemble developments for the 12z and 18z cycles before any thread but I am pretty sure a hazardous wintry event requiring road treatments will be needed later Monday or Tuesday morning as more gusty cold air pours in on the back side of whatever occurs,  I95 or just west with snow max I84?

Also, ensembles have the jet primarily south of 40N through a least the 24th, meaning a difficult time to get big persistent warmer than normal up here to NYC prior to the 24th. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2016)
NYC: 60 (1876)
LGA: 59 (2016)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1982)
NYC:  -3 (1875)
LGA:  2 (2004)


Historical:

 

1800 - Savannah, GA, received a foot and a half of snow, and ten inches blanketed Charleston SC. It was the heaviest snowfall of record for the immediate Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. (David Ludlum)

 

1800: According to David Ludlum, Savannah, Georgia, received a foot and a half of snow and ten inches blanketed Charleston, SC. It was the heaviest snowfall of record for the immediate Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S.

1911 - The temperature at Rapid City, SD, plunged 47 degrees in just fifteen minutes. (The Weather Channel)

1949 - Snow was reported at San Diego, CA, for the first and only time since 1882. Snow was noted even on some of the beaches in parts of the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Burbank reported 4.7 inches, and Long Beach and Laguna Beach received one inch of snow. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1975 - The "Storm of the Century" hit Minnesota. A severe blizzard moved northward across the state producing up to two feet of snow. High winds drove wind chill readings to 80 degrees below zero, and at Duluth MN the barometric pressure dipped to 28.55 inches. The storm, which claimed 35 lives, occurred on the 102nd anniversary of the infamous "Pioneer Blizzard" in Minnesota. (David Ludlum)

1982 - The temperature at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, IL, plunged to an all-time record of 26 degrees below zero, and high winds drove the wind chill reading to 77 degrees below zero. The temperaturein Downtown Chicago reached 23 degrees below zero. A week later a second arctic surge sent the temperature plunging back down to 25 degrees below zero. (Weather Channel) (National Weather Summary)

 

1982: Bitterly cold weather was found across Illinois. Of the 109 weather reporting stations in the state, 48 of those reported lows of 20 degrees below zero or colder. Some of the most frigid temperatures included 27 below zero at Rockford, 26 below zero at Chicago, and 25 below zero at Kankakee and Peoria. The Freezer Bowl was played between the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Deigo Chargers in bitterly cold wind chills. The air temperature was −9 °F, but the wind chill, factoring in a sustained wind of 27 mph,  was −37 °F. 

1987 - Bitter cold air invaded the Rocky Mountain Region, with subzero readings reported as far south as Gallop NM. Pocatello ID reported a record low reading of 14 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A storm in the northwestern U.S. produced wind gusts to 97 mph at Netarts OR, and up to two feet of snow in the mountains of Oregon. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The first documented January tornado of record in Utah struck the south part of Sandy. Asphalt shingles were driven one half inch into a fence. (The Weather Channel) Clear skies, light winds, and up to 24 inches of snow cover, allowed the temperature to plunge to 45 degrees below zero at Roseau MN, and to -43 degrees at Warroad MN. The afternoon high at Grand Forks ND was 16 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of a Pacific cold front helped temperatures in the central U.S. soar as much as 50 degrees during the day. A total of fifty cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, with afternoon highs in the 70s reported as far north as Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Highs of 53 at devils Lake ND, 76 at Grand Island NE, 73 at Lincoln NE, and 73 at North Platte NE, established records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary)

2001 - Storms dumped more than seven inches of rain on parts of southern California, including Los Angeles, where nearly four inches of rain fell. The heavy rains caused mudslides and road closures along much of California's central coast and up to three feet of snow was deposited in some coastal mountain areas. (NCDC)