cardinalland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 19 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Yesterday, Edmonton was 4 degrees F and forecast to rise to 15F today, but then drop off into the negative teens Thursday and Friday. Below average fer sure, but not sure if this is cold enough once it travels south and east? i’m seeing -30s for lows friday and saturday in edmonton. i think that could do the job 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We had that epic Dec block last year not work out for us. We can’t repeat the sins of the past this year. This one has to produce. Looking at everything, we definitely have a chance. Looks like (of course, as per usual anymore) quite a complicated setup though with many moving parts. The Euro has a phase right which is why the result looked good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin…. I think the lately rarely seen GFS trying to overdo the cold push/suppression idea is playing in somewhat with it looking meek...I still think that there is a better chance the system next week is a DCA/NYC south hit for sure and then there may be some follow up wave that ejects behind that but that would be a deep south snow event probably or certainly NC/SC/GA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: We had that epic Dec block last year not work out for us. We can’t repeat the sins of the past this year. This one has to produce. Looking at everything, we definitely have a chance. Looks like (of course, as per usual anymore) quite a complicated setup though with many moving parts. The Euro has a phase right which is why the result looked good? 12Z GFS and CMC are different and not consistent with their previous runs so if the 12Z EURO resembles its previous 0Z run its best to believe that regarding next weeks potential - also considering various Ensembles .......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: We had that epic Dec block last year not work out for us. We can’t repeat the sins of the past this year. This one has to produce. Looking at everything, we definitely have a chance. Looks like (of course, as per usual anymore) quite a complicated setup though with many moving parts. The Euro has a phase right which is why the result looked good? What makes this block better than December 2022 is it appears the pna ridge will be better. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: We had that epic Dec block last year not work out for us. We can’t repeat the sins of the past this year. This one has to produce. Looking at everything, we definitely have a chance. Looks like (of course, as per usual anymore) quite a complicated setup though with many moving parts. The Euro has a phase right which is why the result looked good? There's a better cold air supply this go around-last December was pac-polar/continental which the block trapped-not cold enough especially in Dec 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Geps really like the 19/20th threat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Geps really like the 19/20th threat GEFS has a very nice pattern too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: We had that epic Dec block last year not work out for us. We can’t repeat the sins of the past this year. This one has to produce. Looking at everything, we definitely have a chance. Looks like (of course, as per usual anymore) quite a complicated setup though with many moving parts. The Euro has a phase right which is why the result looked good? December failed as we had a trough to Baja Mexico. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 EURO has now had 3 few similar runs in a row - looking good for 1/16 event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: EURO has now had 3 few similar runs in a row - looking good for 1/16 event Snow to a wintry mix for the coast on this run with decent accumulations. Long way to go but this looks like our best potential of the season so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS has a very nice pattern too And to think this was supposed to be a warm pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Snow to a wintry mix for the coast on this run with decent accumulations. Long way to go but this looks like our best potential of the season so far. It honestly looks like a replica of the last story, albeit with a colder air mass ahead and behind the system so more snowfall potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It honestly looks like a replica of the last story, albeit with a colder air mass ahead and behind the system so more snowfall potential. Press the cold, get more people in the game, and that’s a big win IMO. Don’t care how much or how little. Getting some flakes would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It honestly looks like a replica of the last story, albeit with a colder air mass ahead and behind the system so more snowfall potential. It’s 174 hours out but surface temps are very cold which isn’t a bad sign at this time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And to think this was supposed to be a warm pattern. So you think there's a chance..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 And to think this was supposed to be a warm pattern. That map is for 1/18, not one single person on here said the pattern was going to turn mild until after 1/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Press the cold, get more people in the game, and that’s a big win IMO. Don’t care how much or how little. Getting some flakes would be nice. We were really close on that last one; less than an hour from good accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Strong signal for next week on the eps. 3-4 inch mean 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s 174 hours out but surface temps are very cold which isn’t a bad sign at this time I think it’s the ephemerally-better PAC that has me a tad excited for this one. Climo is on our side as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 The only reason now no new 16th MDT impact snow rain thread is on -going thread now, then another serious event thread Fri night. I'll start this thread tomorrow morning 10AM if we have power, which I expect we will here in nw NJ. I checked rolling 24 hour positive snow depth change and the CMCE/GEFS both have it, an inch less than the consistent EPS but a day FASTER...15th. Attached EPS 00z and 12z cycles: 24 hr +snow depth change, ending 06z/17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Strong signal for next week on the eps. 3-4 inch mean 50/50 ULL with decaying block shows up afterwards. just need a strong wave 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: 50/50 ULL with decaying block shows up afterwards. just need a strong wave EPS really doesn’t have much for the 20th. Everything looks off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, Eduardo said: I think it’s the ephemerally-better PAC that has me a tad excited for this one. Climo is on our side as well. Yup. Hopefully a front end thump is the floor with this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Hopefully a front end thump is the floor with this one I hope so. I don't want a sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I hope so. I don't want a sleetfest I’ll take anything that’s 100% frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’ll take anything that’s 100% frozen Better than rain true but hopefully snow on the front end. Models usually don't have sleet this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Strong signal for next week on the eps. 3-4 inch mean i will take a 3 incher after last weekends 2 inch.....next little events to make $$ without stressing me out, there should be a dozen 1-3 inch events 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: i will take a 3 incher after last weekends 2 inch.....next little events to make $$ without stressing me out, there should be a dozen 1-3 inch events Hope all is well warlock!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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