January 2024

[WX-PA]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Too warm now. 1-3 happens with 30s/20s split.

Our climate is now 40s/30s split. you need a big storm that pulls in cold air for that so it becomes all or nothing thing.

 

That has been on display for the last 20 years but it’s been masked by the amount of big storms we had

 

as for the comparison between the 70s and 90s… stop doing it. It’s a much warmer climate, and while there may be similarities in terms of storm track and background state, the reality is we are so far removed from any winter weather at this point there’s nothing in that time That even comes comes close 

Back in the 70's and 80's a 3 inch snowstorm was a big deal..Believe me the climate between 02-18 was not NYC snow climate..Again it's not this bad..but 20 inches a year is common.

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Too warm now. 1-3 happens with 30s/20s split.

Our climate is now 40s/30s split. you need a big storm that pulls in cold air for that so it becomes all or nothing thing.

 

That has been on display for the last 20 years but it’s been masked by the amount of big storms we had

 

as for the comparison between the 70s and 90s… stop doing it. It’s a much warmer climate, and while there may be similarities in terms of storm track and background state, the reality is we are so far removed from any winter weather at this point there’s nothing in that time That even comes comes close 

I was just referring to expectations. By the early 90s they were very low 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We generally don’t do as well following SSWs during El Niños that weren’t already snowy before the event. December 1972 and 2006 only had a trace of snow or less in December like this year. The SSW in December 1965 even happened earlier and that December only had a trace.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

Seasonal El Niño snowfall in NYC with only a T or less in December

2006-2007….12.4…..SSW…1-21

2015-2016….32.8

1997-1998…..5.5

1994-1995…..11.8

1972-1973…..2.8…..SSW….2-2

1965-1966….21.4….SSW…12-8

1877-1878…..8.1

Brutal…

oh well…

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Back in the 70's and 80's a 3 inch snowstorm was a big deal..Believe me the climate between 02-18 was not NYC snow climate..Again it's not this bad..but 20 inches a year is common.

It was cold then and warm now. this is simply unprecedented in terms of extended warmth over multiple seasons.

Nina, Nino, Neutral, MJO, doesnt really matter. Its warm.

Even with this pattern change, I don’t see one below normal or even normal day over the next 15

 

[North and West]

Meh we kinda came to expect crappy winters with 1 or 2 3 to 6" events by that point. We weren't spoiled with 60" winters

Good point.


.

[North and West]

It was cold then and warm now. this is simply unprecedented in terms of extended warmth over multiple seasons.
Nina, Nino, Neutral, MJO, doesnt really matter. Its warm.
Even with this pattern change, I don’t see one below normal or even normal day over the next 15
 

I think stormlover just said this… we have zero expectations today like we did back then.

You’re correct regarding the temperature difference, but the lack of snow expectations was and is similar.


.

[snowman19]

Brutal…
oh well…

[brooklynwx99]

SSWs often drop the cold in Europe first. that’s nothing new. we’re getting a 50mb SPV lobe over us, though, so we should see strong blocking develop later in the month as well as colder air moving east. the last three SSWs that we had gave us significant blocking, and two of them were before prolific periods (March 2018 and Feb 2021)

not sure why people are acting like this is a death knell. pessimism reigns supreme, I guess. we’re also going to ignore any snow chances during the first 10 days of the month as well?

[MJO812]

We need an ice age

[Volcanic Winter]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need an ice age

Call it the Brooklyn Glaciation. Leave your freezer open, maybe you can be the point source. 
 

BTW to be pedantic we are still in an ice age so long as ice remains at the poles. We are however in an interstadial or a recession toward a glacial minimum. 

This is why the LIA was so fascinating as it was a period of glacial growth within an interstadial. I’ve read some smart individuals (this is speculative, take it as such) state the LIA may have been the beginning of the slide toward the next stadial (or colloquial “ice age”) that was aborted by human factors. It would have been a slow descent as glaciers grow much more slowly than they melt, so the LIA “ending” in 1850 doesn’t necessarily disprove this idea IMO. Still subject to decadal variability. But by the 1900’s, it may have been overridden by the growth of CO2. 

CO2 levels throughout paleoclimate have correlated to global temperatures. There’s a natural ebb and flow from a multitude of geologic processes, and now we’ve essentially overridden nature and hijacked the controls on a very short timescale. 

This is why people who argue against AGW by bringing up “natural planetary cycles” are actually half correct. But they’re also (and more importantly) half incorrect, and are missing very necessary contextualizing information. 

[the_other_guy]

34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I was just referring to expectations. By the early 90s they were very low 

True.

But the next 93-94 will feature a VA type climate. 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

True.

But the next 93-94 will feature a VA type climate. 

Maybe...but I go back to my point about AC getting 3 feet in 2021-22 and they average under 12" per year and are considerably warmer than us

[Brian5671]

Today feels like late March or even early April...

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe...but I go back to my point about AC getting 3 feet in 2021-22 and they average under 12" per year and are considerably warmer than us

I believe they had their snowiest January on record in 2022

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Today feels like late March or even early April...

Birds chirping and grass still very green 

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe...but I go back to my point about AC getting 3 feet in 2021-22 and they average under 12" per year and are considerably warmer than us

Exactly! Cary North Carolina (Raleigh area) had a snow event a couple years ago and the Delmarva had a great winter by their standards as well. 

I think Norfolk did really well too.

As you stated they are well south and considerably warmer. If they can snow so can we.

A couple years in the 70s and the year 1987 were extremely cold and suppressed. A SE ridge may help in reducing suppression in a repeat of those years. We just don't know yet.

As long as we see the south and mid Atlantic see snow, we have time.

DC is an odd area as they always were too far south for northern stream system redevelopment and too far north for SE sliders. They always needed everything to line up and now that they are a couple degrees warmer it's that much harder. 

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I believe they had their snowiest January on record in 2022

Yeah, I was too far north for the early Jan major event that plastered them. Had nothing but virga. Did better in the event the following week that was more area wide. And then 1/29 bullseyed here. 

I live in probably the best position for the southernmost extent of central Nj / suburban metro. As soon as you go a few miles to my south snow falls off a cliff especially as the coast begins to recurve toward the southwest and you lost the longitude advantage for coastal scrapers like 1/29. According to a gov site regarding the pine barrens the northern edge that I reside on is supposed to average about 21-24 inches, which is probably correct but I’ve never kept a tally over the years. To my east it also drops off with more marine influence. 

But I’ll eventually move northward again, aiming for the Sparta area. Wife and I developed a love for winter hiking and there’s much so much more in NNJ, and it’s a better base to go north into NY and NE. 

[the_other_guy]

31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe...but I go back to my point about AC getting 3 feet in 2021-22 and they average under 12" per year and are considerably warmer than us

 

OK, but you’re going for one offs then.

 

Even Washington gets blizzards with two or 3 feet of snow every now and then.

 

What are you seeing on This board is a majority of people that have not accepted the fact that winter is warm now. they’re getting angry because they expect three months of winter to act differently than the other nine months of the year. They are expecting frequent, frozen precipitation and below freezing weather, and they are expecting temperatures to run out or below normal for extended periods of time.

 

That isn’t going to happen. There may be some great winter in the future that stands out from all of this… but what has become clear to anybody that wants to see it is that we are running 3 to 5° above normal. And when normal was mid 30s, that’s a really big fucking problem if you like winter weather.

through January 10 I see slightly above normal temperatures. I’m sure we could pick something off. it’s possible. but if you’re looking for 1 to 3 inches here and another 1-3 inches there like its 1986 and looking out at 10 or 11 days of some snow cover on the ground in an urban environment, you are dreaming.

Instead you will get a larger storm that manufactures it’s own cold air that falls and kind of disappears within a few days.

 

And if you have a good season and the storm track sets up just right, you fall into an Atlantic City situation where you get a number of these type if storms.

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

All the meteorologists  on Twitter including the good ones are forecasting it.

MJO shouldn't be weenied for this one.  He's right that most are calling for a warming event and potential split.  It does look valid and will qualify as an SSW event in all likelihood. 

 

What will be overhyped is the correlation between SSW and t2m in the east.  SSW events are essentially a correlation of a correlation to 2m temps.  SSW inducrd PV displacement and splits are correlated to periods of more blocking which is correlated to colder temps in the mid latitudes of varying intensity and regionally/unevenly distributed.

 

That correlation to temperatures is mostly 3-4 weeks after event.  So this would in theory increase colder odds for the mid latitudes in February.  But that doesn't necessarily mean colder in the northeast.  It might, but it's not guaranteed.

 

Historically splits work better for NA in analogs....but theres a huge caveat that the pac jet will need to relax and the EPO will need to be way less positive that it is right now.   

 

In short, its a situation where one of the factors we track in the weather becomes less hostile in theory to cold in the mid-latitudes.  That said, we don't live at 10-50mb level, so it's one piece of a large puzzle. 

[nycwinter]

another day when i do not have to zipper my coat...

[EastonSN+]

Just now, nycwinter said:

another day when i do not have to zipper my coat...

Be careful not to get sick, feels warm now but if it was this temperature in July you would feel extremely cold and for good reason.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

MJO shouldn't be weenied for this one.  He's right that most are calling for a warming event and potential split.  It does look valid and will qualify as an SSW event in all likelihood. 

 

What will be overhyped is the correlation between SSW and t2m in the east.  SSW events are essentially a correlation of a correlation to 2m temps.  SSW inducrd PV displacement and splits are correlated to periods of more blocking which is correlated to colder temps in the mid latitudes of varying intensity and regionally/unevenly distributed.

 

That correlation to temperatures is mostly 3-4 weeks after event.  So this would in theory increase colder odds for the mid latitudes in February.  But that doesn't necessarily mean colder in the northeast.  It might, but it's not guaranteed.

 

Historically splits work better for NA in analogs....but theres a huge caveat that the pac jet will need to relax and the EPO will need to be way less positive that it is right now.   

 

In short, its a situation where one of the factors we track in the weather becomes less hostile in theory to cold in the mid-latitudes.  That said, we don't live at 10-50mb level, so it's one piece of a large puzzle. 

You bring up a very good point….does the +EPO and raging fast PAC jet/split-flow give up with an El Niño this strong? This one is all but guaranteed to go down in history with the strongest events of the last 50+ years (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16). Even if we do see a -NAO/-AO, will it really matter with a crap Pacific? Or will it just trap PAC air underneath the high-latitude blocking? 
 

[BucksCO_PA]

pattern is changing, we're going from very warm to just warm

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You bring up a very good point….does the +EPO and raging fast PAC jet/split-flow give up with an El Niño this strong? This one is all but guaranteed to go down in history with the strongest events of the last 50+ years (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16). Even if we do see a -NAO/-AO, will it really matter with a crap Pacific? Or will it just trap PAC air underneath the high-latitude blocking? 
 

Yeah, 97/98 had really good blocking and we experienced nothing but rain from perfect storm tracks.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

pattern is changing, we're going from very warm to just warm

Yeah, strong El Ninos are warm to say the least.

[the_other_guy]

Forget snow. When is next day CPK goes below freezing?

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Forget snow. When is next day CPK goes below freezing?

This coming weekend.........take any model data past 120 hours with a grain of salt though...

[Stormlover74]

Early next week looks chilly on the euro 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Early next week looks chilly on the euro 

Stay safe 

[Stormlover74]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Stay safe 

Mid 30s brrr