Volcanic Winter Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 23 for a low, currently 40. Let the rain begin . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can’t bank strictly on ENSO or -AO -NAO climatology to get the job done for us anymore. Last December we had the 2nd lowest December -AO on record during a La Niña. That was good enough for us in December 1995, 2000, and 2010 but not last year. Those were great frontloaded La Ninas which matched great blocking La Niña years. These days we are dealing with formidable MJO 4-7s and stronger Southeast ridges with the record warm NW Atlantic. These features promote troughing out West and the Southeast ridge linking up with the -AO and -NAO. Plus all the record warmth since 2015 adds more warmth to the equation. I am just hoping we can get some snow next week before we warm up again after the 20th. While we will have great blocking next week, the CMC drops the vortex too far SW which pumps the Southeast ridge. The EPS was kind of in the middle. But I am always am weary of such amped solutions from more than a week out. Since the rain-snow lines generally creep NW from a week out with very amplified systems. This is the old saying you don’t want to be in the jackpot from a week out. Interesting, what sets 1995-96 from the others is that we went back to a very snowy February, March and even early April.... was that because the blocking was exceptional that winter or because the la nina was weak (as compared to 2010-11)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 30 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: 23 for a low, currently 40. Let the rain begin . Dont hold an umbrella, you'll fly away like Mary Poppins ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 OLR maps continue to keep convection in p3 with dry air in the warm phases. I’m very skeptical of those RMM plots that show such strength in the warm phases currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: OLR maps continue to keep convection in p3 with dry air in the warm phases. I’m very skeptical of those RMM plots that show such strength in the warm phases currently P4 for February… currently I don’t think the convection will be so quick to leave p3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I know it has been mentioned before, good storm threat a week from today. Probably the best chance of snow for the coast that we have seen in over a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: P4 for February… currently I don’t think the convection will be so quick to leave p3 The warm up following the 20th looks like an El Niño phase 4 for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The warm up following the 20th looks like an El Niño phase 4 for January. I don’t disagree with that but I don’t see this strong warm phase wave on the olr maps. They keep convection in p3 with dry air in the warm phases. The RMM charts look way too strong. Unless, I’m not looking at it properly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I don’t disagree with that but I don’t see this strong warm phase wave on the olr maps. They keep convection in p3 with dry air in the warm phases. The RMM charts look way too strong. Unless, I’m not looking at it properly I was using the VP anomalies and convection. Strong signal it keeps rolling east next few weeks through 4-7. But not sure what happens after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 For those still looking for cold air on our side of the pole currently Yellowknife is sitting at -40F and -47 at Fort Good Hope. The cold is coming to the western and central U.S. and down to the gulf coast in a big way. Direct and fast discharge S.S.E. It will eventually seep / ooze east but the western and central states from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico are going into the deep freeze with record breaking cold. Hope the power grids are ready. Especially the wind turbines in Texas. They didn't do so well last time this happened. Temperature departures of -50 to -70 looking more likely over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Bitter cold day for Iowa Caucus. Below zero! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Interesting, what sets 1995-96 from the others is that we went back to a very snowy February, March and even early April.... was that because the blocking was exceptional that winter or because the la nina was weak (as compared to 2010-11)? 2 major snowstorms in April including the one the forced the cancellation of the home opener in boston. The 2nd one began shortly after the home opener was played...narrowly missed a 2nd cancellation of the home opener. Fenway was an absolute icebox! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was using the VP anomalies and convection. Strong signal it keeps rolling east next few weeks through 4-7. But not sure what happens after that. One thing I'll say - and you know a lot more than I do (I assume you're a professional) - is that we, as a whole, jump ahead so often. Let's get through this difficult night and ensuing chill prior to the next (all too often) presumed warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: 2 major snowstorms in April including the one the forced the cancellation of the home opener in boston. The 2nd one began shortly after the home opener was played...narrowly missed a 2nd cancellation of the home opener. Fenway was an absolute icebox! I remember being happy when it was over for good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I know it has been mentioned before, good storm threat a week from today. Probably the best chance of snow for the coast that we have seen in over a year. Agree. I am going through the GFS Op and already looks good at 144 with a more positive tilt. This could be fun to track and I am already in the op runs myself. Edit - I need to wait a few more frames on the 12Z run before opening my yap. Doesn't tilt quite like 6z, or how I thought it would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I remember being happy when it was over for good lol the baseball season or the winter of 95-96? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 CMC more progressive this run snow to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: CMC more progressive this run snow to the coast Gfs east which you want currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: CMC more progressive this run snow to the coast I think our biggest risk with that wave is it being sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I don’t disagree with that but I don’t see this strong warm phase wave on the olr maps. They keep convection in p3 with dry air in the warm phases. The RMM charts look way too strong. Unless, I’m not looking at it properly 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I was using the VP anomalies and convection. Strong signal it keeps rolling east next few weeks through 4-7. But not sure what happens after that. Isn't phase 7 decent in El ninos? I may be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Gfs like the 18th with a nice miller B. Tons of potential next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think our biggest risk with that wave is it being sheared. We may have to wait and see what happens to the big Saturday cutter once up in Canada. The block is so strong from the multiple wave breaks that the low starts retrograding. Any storm tracks after this weekend are going to be very low skill for a while until we get all the vorts rotating around worked out. Would like to a least get some snow before we warm up again after the 20th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 IMO any warmup might be a short duration 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I was using the VP anomalies and convection. Strong signal it keeps rolling east next few weeks through 4-7. But not sure what happens after that. IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, MANDA said: For those still looking for cold air on our side of the pole currently Yellowknife is sitting at -40F and -47 at Fort Good Hope. The cold is coming to the western and central U.S. and down to the gulf coast in a big way. Direct and fast discharge S.S.E. It will eventually seep / ooze east but the western and central states from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico are going into the deep freeze with record breaking cold. Hope the power grids are ready. Especially the wind turbines in Texas. They didn't do so well last time this happened. Temperature departures of -50 to -70 looking more likely over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Bitter cold day for Iowa Caucus. Below zero! Yesterday, Edmonton was 4 degrees F and forecast to rise to 15F today, but then drop off into the negative teens Thursday and Friday. Below average fer sure, but not sure if this is cold enough once it travels south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: IMO any warmup might be a short duration We could transition to a +PNA -EPO at some point from the 26 th to 31st with a 6-7 passage. So I agree it may just be a 5 day warm up before another cool down. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin…. What are your thoughts on Feb? Originally IIRC you thought Feb had a chance at being pretty decent, any other thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, bluewave said: We could transition to a +PNA -EPO at some point from the 26 th to 31st with a 6-7 passage. So I agree it may just be a 5 day warm up before another cool down. Thanks for the info. I appreciate you guiding me in the mjo progression. It’s just very difficult to extrapolate the mjo more then 2 weeks out and how the pattern will respond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Thanks for the info. I appreciate you guiding me in the mjo progression. It’s just very difficult to extrapolate the mjo more then 2 weeks out and how the pattern will respond The speed of the pattern shifts from phase to phase is pretty wild since this is such an amplified MJO 2-7 for a borderline super El Niño. Plus we add in all these wave breaks leading to so much blocking. It really is much more volatility than we typically see this time of year. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The speed of the pattern shifts from phase to phase is pretty wild since this is such an amplified MJO 2-7 for a borderline super El Niño. Plus we add in all these wave breaks leading to so much blocking. It really is much more volatility than we typically see this time of year. Yeah, the strength of the block is really impressive which is being helped by the strong cutters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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