Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 12/27/2023 at 2:37 PM, Allsnow said: Probably see improvements out west when the mjo gets into p3. Thank you p3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 back to realityLet’s just get through a flood and a freeze first prior to the next inferno.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 38 minutes ago, wdrag said: Agreed... I think if you permit, when I probably thread this later today, I'd like to use your graphic and comment as well as mine to set this up. Modeling can still be off quite a bit but it's improving on large scale events 7-10 days in advance. Just let me know. I am just an a little weary about how amplified this pattern will be over the next week. I don’t want to repost the 500 mb composite yet to another thread and prematurely get hopes up so early. I was looking at the EPS mean and there were several storm tracks too close to tracking near or just east of NYC for comfort. We have seen the rain snow line tick a little NW from the longer range positions. While we will have great blocking and a bit more favorable of a Pacific look for a brief window, the vort dropoing just a little too far to the West could amplify the Southeast ridge a little too much for the coast. But I am hoping we can at least get something out of this before it looks like the pattern warms up again after the 20-22nd. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, bluewave said: I am just an a little weary about how amplified this pattern will be over the next week. I don’t want to repost the 500 mb composite yet to another thread and prematurely get hopes up so early. I was looking at the EPS mean and there were several storm tracks too close to tracking near or just east of NYC for comfort. We have seen the rain snow line tick a little NW from the longer range positions. While we will have great blocking and a bit more favorable of a Pacific look for a brief window, the vort dropoing just a little too far to the West could amplify the Southeast ridge a little too much for the coast. But I am hoping we can at least get something out of this before it looks like the pattern warms up again after the 20-22nd. The better shot for the coast might be the 20th as the pattern breaks down and relaxes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The better shot for the coast might be the 20th as the pattern breaks down and relaxes I was also concerned how amplified the Canadian is and much less favorable look out West. So maybe we may just have to roll the dice again closer to the 20th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was also concerned how amplified the Canadian is and much less favorable look out West. So maybe we may just have to roll the dice again closer to the 20th. Yeah we’d want the western ridge axis further east. If the trough is over MN/WI and that deep, it would probably cut the storm north too early for us city and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Tuesday morning everyone, It is Dec 9. Storms today, late Friday-Saturday, next Tuesday and possibly the 19th-20th. Various moderate to high impact flavors on your life that will require adjustments. PLEASE follow National Weather Statements on the various phenomena this next week. Keep the shovel handy, the sump pump working, generator on standby with plenty of fuel and phones charged. You stand a good chance for a period of no power between now and next Tuesday night. Cellars will be tested for combined rainfall-snowmelt from NJ/PA northeast to Massachusetts. There may be isolated roof collapses and a better chance of roof leaks because snow-ice clogged gutters. Cancellations for various storms will be required in some places, especially NJ/PA/New England/NYS. I will likely begin the Tuesday 16th thread sometime between 11AM and 5PM. I've attached the 00z/9 EPS 24 hour positive snow depth change map that ends at 198 hours. Pretty significant but again looks tentatively like I95 west to the Appalachians.. I think its this storm that brings back normal or subnormal temps for a day or two, followed by a cold front around the 19th-20th that reinforces the normal or subnormal cold. Extended thaw? I doubt before the 23rd. Thanks Walt! It seems like it's been forever since central/NE PA have had multiple good snow periods. Lol it seemed that the "coastal hugger" was extinct for a few years. Even if this ends up being a "hugger" scenario, the ski resorts of the Poconos, Catskills, Litchfield hills and Berkshires can benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was also concerned how amplified the Canadian is and much less favorable look out West. So maybe we may just have to roll the dice again closer to the 20th. Yeah I was thinking/leary about this look this morning. Perhaps a better shot at front end snows even if the track is inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 What a wild pattern regardless of snow for anyone. Storm after storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Brian5671 said: What a wild pattern regardless of snow for anyone. Storm after storm. I will be fine with 1 huge storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I was thinking/leary about this look this morning. Perhaps a better shot at front end snows even if the track is inland? If there’s real cold air in place it would improve those odds. But eventually any storm taking that amplified track would go to rain if it tracks over/west of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I will be fine with 1 huge storm Probably where we are headed. At some point just out of dumb luck one of these monsters is going to link up with some cold air... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Brian5671 said: Probably where we are headed. At some point just out of dumb luck one of these monsters is going to link up with some cold air... Hopefully. It would be awful luck for us to totally miss out on a block and some real cold air that looks headed our way after 1/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 At least there’s a wave or two to track right now that aren’t guaranteed Lakes cutters. At this point, I’ll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully. It would be awful luck for us to totally miss out on a block and some real cold air that looks headed our way after 1/12. We will get something next week with that look. If not, then no pattern works for snow anymore and something bigger is going on 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We will get something next week with that look. If not, then no pattern works for snow anymore and something bigger is going on I guess it’s possible we are in a 1979-1993 type of rut. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard. Other than that it was a God awful period for east coast snowstorms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We will get something next week with that look. If not, then no pattern works for snow anymore and something bigger is going on I would think with enough preceding cold air, a low taking an unfavorable track could at least be a solid front end before changing over like Feb 1995. If the rain is limited before dry slotting and a lot of snow remains I’m fine with it. People forget that there was rain mixed in at one point or another near the coast in each of the bigger 2020-21 storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, jm1220 said: I would think with enough preceding cold air, a low taking an unfavorable track could at least be a solid front end before changing over like Feb 1995. If the rain is limited before dry slotting and a lot of snow remains I’m fine with it. People forget that there was rain mixed in at one point or another near the coast in each of the bigger 2020-21 storms. Yup, January 2021 I was at 15 then flipped to sleet/rain abruptly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Agreed... I think if you permit, when I probably thread this later today, I'd like to use your graphic and comment as well as mine to set this up. Modeling can still be off quite a bit but it's improving on large scale events 7-10 days in advance. Just let me know. I would wait till tomorrow morning to create a thread for next weeks potential IF there is some various model consensus that it is a real threat for most of the region - plenty of time IMO don't rush it plus I don't like the idea of tracking 3 storms on here at the same time - too confusing and some folks will start talking about the wrong storm in the wrong thread for whatever reason.........in addition too the folks taking a stroll down memory lane discussing storms from years ago...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I guess it’s possible we are in a 1979-1993 type of rut. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard. Other than that it was a God awful period for east coast snowstorms April 1982 was mighty special too. I doubt we will ever see the likes of that ever again so late in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup, January 2021 I was at 15 then flipped to sleet/rain abruptly. The Feb 1 storm? I had 5 inches at home and 18 at work. Doesn’t matter, had snow, would do again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 This morning temperatures Mid Hudson Valley (snow pack) in upper teens. Near by city suburbs in the 20s. Central Park 39. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I am just an a little weary about how amplified this pattern will be over the next week. I don’t want to repost the 500 mb composite yet to another thread and prematurely get hopes up so early. I was looking at the EPS mean and there were several storm tracks too close to tracking near or just east of NYC for comfort. We have seen the rain snow line tick a little NW from the longer range positions. While we will have great blocking and a bit more favorable of a Pacific look for a brief window, the vort dropoing just a little too far to the West could amplify the Southeast ridge a little too much for the coast. But I am hoping we can at least get something out of this before it looks like the pattern warms up again after the 20-22nd. but thats just a temporary mild up as the real winter sets in at the beginning of February right Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: but thats just a temporary mild up as the real winter sets in at the beginning of February right Chris? similar on how it was supposed to set in mid- January ? or before that Christmas week ? my point being nobody knows for sure and its been a winter similar to last winter so far with little cold air and Central Park ending up with only 0.2 inches of snow by Jan 15 the half way point of MET winter...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Frosty 25 to 34 now ahead of the soaker and winds. Wet/windy duet today and Fri/Sat before we chill down. Storm threat 16/17 but can it bring the snow or is it the triple rain/wind. Either way lots of flooding, branches, trees, christmas decorations blowing around. Check those generators, sump pumps and flashlights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, lee59 said: This morning temperatures Mid Hudson Valley (snow pack) in upper teens. Near by city suburbs in the 20s. Central Park 39. 10.5" snow pack IMBY, low of 17, up to 23 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: similar on how it was supposed to set in mid- January ? or before that Christmas week ? my point being nobody knows for sure and its been a winter similar to last winter so far with little cold air and Central Park ending up with only 0.2 inches of snow by Jan 15 the half way point of MET winter...... they're banking on the el nino backend winter idea, but we have a ways to go to get cold enough for that to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Records: Highs: EWR: 68 (1998) NYC: 64 (2008) LGA: 66 (2008) Lows: EWR: 1 (1968) NYC: -1 (1968) LGA: 1 (1968) Historical: 1875 - The temperature at Cheyenne, WY, dipped to an all-time record cold reading of -38 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1880: A rapidly deepening low-pressure system produced powerful winds along the Pacific Northwest coast. While wind measurements were limited, there were widespread reports of wind damage. 1888 - Severe cold gripped much of the western U.S. At Portland OR the Columbia River was frozen for two weeks, and in southern California temperatures dipped below freezing in some of the citrus growing areas. (David Ludlum) 1976 - Lake effect snow squalls buried the town of Adams NY under 68 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Heavier totals included 9 inches at Sun City KS, 7 inches at Columbia MO, 11 inches at Terre Haute IN, and up to 10 inches in the southern suburbs of Chicago IL. (National Weather Summary) ( Storm Data) 1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced ten inches of snow at Boston MA, and 14 inches at Worcester MA. A winter storm in the northwestern U.S. produced a foot of snow in three hours at McCall ID. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Colorado. Winds gusted to 113 mph at the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs, and reached 115 mph at Boulder. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A third storm in four days hit the Pacific Northwest. Winds in Oregon gusted above 100 mph at Netarts and at Oceanside. Up to 8.16 inches of rain was reported around Seaside OR, and the total of 4.53 inches of rain at Astoria OR was a record for the date. Twelve cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 70 degrees at Cedar City UT was a record for January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 I've seen multiple member concerns about too early... will hold off til 12z/10 cycle completes tomorrow (unless exceedingly convincing Positive snow depth consensus on 12z cycle.. I completely understand hugger or Apps track for the 16th...and too many threads. I'll wait but modeling gets pretty good out to D10 on big ones. This dual storm thread started 12/31... open ended allowing possibilities on events and improve toward T0. Renewed flooding is again a possibility for I95 next Tuesday if it doesn't snow (presuming tonights event 2+" and Friday night 1" events occur occur NNJ basins. 00z/10 NAEFS response is so far east at D7-8 that it will have to edge west for a snowstorm ne USA. I somehow dont see this as a Great Lakes cutter--- more of a positive tilt trough. Even today its going to snow-sleet I84-nw NJ. Thursday is going to be interesting NYS lee of Lakes-pretty good short wave. Then that Friday night storm I think will end up east of current track with snow ice I84 to start. I will wait 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Overnite low of 24, it's 34F here currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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