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January 2024


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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

January 26, 1978 was the date of the Ohio Valley Blizzard.  Lowest pressure reached 960 mb in Detroit and 956 mb in Mt. Clemens, MI.  This resulted in a tremendous windstorm in the NE part of the country.  Winds where I lived on the north shore of LI at the time reached 50-60 mph in gusts for a good part of the day and these winds were from the SW after the cold front passed.  

That was the most intense phasing system in the US until March 1993 came a long. 

https://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html

Phasing Storms

 


My Home Page
 


 

This page is about storm systems in North America that can be characterized by two or three upper level lows (or vortices or troughs) that merge together to create a bigger or more intense storm, sometimes resulting in a snowstorm.


Midwest Blizzard of '78

January 24-27, 1978   250mb loop  850mb loop  Surface Temp and SLP loop
Essentially Two-vort max powerful phasing. Did three branches of the jet stream phase together You decide: 500mb Wind Speed Loop (0.2MB)  250mb Wind Speed Loop (0.2MB) 


Superstorm East Coast storm.

March 12-14, 1993 NARR animation   NCEP Reanalysis Animaton  250mb loop  850mb loop  Surface loop 
Three-vort max powerful phasing

March 13, 1993 12z 300mb wind speed

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2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Well, it’s a very Long Island centric forum. I know it would screw up the forum, but I think that the Hudson Valley should be its own thing. The weather really isn’t the same and there’s diverging narratives and interest in just basic posting.

There is the interior thread FWIW.  Overall, I think most know the interior & coast get different outcomes in various patterns/storms.  Storm threads are good, as one gets to see the obs showing that difference.  We just need an area wide blizzard and all will be happy :lol:

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28 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I got out and enjoyed the inch I had while it was falling. Figured that might be it, you never know. Thought I saw some optimism in here yesterday but now it seems like people are dialing that back?

Seems it's still 7-10 days away for anything decent-next 2 storms are raging cutters.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Seems it's still 7-10 days away for anything decent-next 2 storms are raging cutters.

Well that goes without saying. Done thru Sunday. But then it looks nice and cold for more than 3!!! days

Question is will that be wasted or does something pop next Tuesday.

You be surprised, you get a nice 6 incher that stays on ground for a week or so, and people have a different outlook. Another one in February and even if thats your winter, you were in the game.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep-the big pattern has yet to materialize and it's getting to the point where it may not happen and we're just mainly warm and wet like December....

one storm(New England) doesn't make a winter much like one storm did not make the winter of 15-16 a  good one for the mid atlantic/metro nyc area..

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One of the most overused defense mechanism to a cutter.

The one I like is “it’s impossible for that storm to cut because there’s heavy snowpack!” If a shortwave amps in the right place you can have 4 feet of snow and 10 inches of ice in the path it wants to take and it will still cut right over it

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9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

People need to stop with the oh this can't cut no chance look at that blocking

Correct.

When there is an RNA there is always risk of both cutter and sheared.

The times where the Neg. NAO worked with an RNA are usually when the the PNA is in a transitory state, not continuous.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Waiting til 350P.  Best way to go seems to be a 12-13 thread. Ensembles previously--all 3 major global had a snow event the 16th... and this far out only 1-2".  I think we can wait till 350PM. 

I would just start with a 12/13 thread - combining storms in one thread turns into confusion around here - plus 1/16 outcome depends on where the next 2 storms end up tracking - very complex.......

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Just now, mannynyc said:

The system on the 16th is not a cutter on the Euro. A cutter has the low go over the great lakes and the Euro system doesn't do that.

Right. Even worse the track isn't terrible and it still doesn't have snow south of the Poconos.  Eps looks better thankfully 

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