LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Technically December 22 and March 2023. The RNA was in a bad position and down to Baja. No NAO can over power that deep of a trough. We got accumulating snow yesterday due to the fact that the RNA was not nearly as deep and a little east of last year's. I'm looking forward to the end of January through February period, I think that will be the best wintry period we've seen in 3 years (not saying much I know.) But imagine with temperatures just slightly colder than they were with this storm and with the same juiced up STJ, then 1982-83 and 2015-16 become good analogs for what can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In the wake of the region's first winter storm, a severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds, and possibly significant coastal flooding. Significant beach erosion is also likely. Temperatures could surge into the 50s. Late next week, a genuine Arctic air mass will likely begin pushing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +2.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.292 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.023 (RMM). The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.355(RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.4° (0.7° above normal). Don do you think it's likely that February will be the coldest month this winter season? January at +0.7 will be much colder than December was and the February mean is only slightly milder than January, so it wouldn't take much for February to be colder than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I'm looking forward to the end of January through February period, I think that will be the best wintry period we've seen in 3 years (not saying much I know.) But imagine with temperatures just slightly colder than they were with this storm and with the same juiced up STJ, then 1982-83 and 2015-16 become good analogs for what can happen. They will be, and the southern half of this forum came very close this storm, it was unfortunate that there was an RNA and the strong El nino torched December and kept the Arctic air on the other side of the globe. That is changing now and the cold is on our side. My only fear would be the 1980s cold and dry warm and wet scenario given that we are in an RNA cycle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Alright I have a tough question to ask the crew. Do I buy a new snow blower this season or wait until end of the year clearance? Our tiny but still new snowblower was not up to the job today clearing the 7 inches away. It did great on our sidewalks just not the driveway. I don't want to jinx us by buying another new one this year, likewise if it is looking meh for the next weeks should I hold off? I only ask because I know in retail they will be in full summer mode come February likewise the next season's snowblowers will show up in July haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: They will be, and the southern half of this forum came very close this storm, it was unfortunate that there was an RNA and the strong El nino torched December and kept the Arctic air on the other side of the globe. That is changing now and the cold is on our side. My only fear would be the 1980s cold and dry warm and wet scenario given that we are in an RNA cycle. We still got our 3-5 quick shots in those days, and it would stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: They will be, and the southern half of this forum came very close this storm, it was unfortunate that there was an RNA and the strong El nino torched December and kept the Arctic air on the other side of the globe. That is changing now and the cold is on our side. My only fear would be the 1980s cold and dry warm and wet scenario given that we are in an RNA cycle. Have the hope that in spite of what the 80s were like 82-83 still happened and February was the best snowstorm we had between 1978 and 1996! In both 1982-83 and 2015-16 the south shore of Long Island had over 20 inch HECS! As a matter of fact JFK has had most of its 20"+ snowstorms during moderate and strong or very strong el ninos. (February 1983, 2003 PD2, January 2016). The other ones were in February 1961, February 1969, January 1996. So 6 total 20"+ snowstorms going back to 1960 at JFK and half of them were in moderate or strong or very strong el ninos. Every decade had at least 1 20"+ HECS at JFK (and the 60s had 2!) except the 70s (and many will tell you that the February 1978 HECS was grossly undermeasured at JFK at 14"-- when a nearby co-op in SW Nassau recorded 22" in that blizzard!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: We still got our 3-5 quick shots in those days, and it would stick around. Because of the very cold Januarys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Tue - Wed soaker aimed right at us with the heaviest rain totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 25 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Alright I have a tough question to ask the crew. Do I buy a new snow blower this season or wait until end of the year clearance? Our tiny but still new snowblower was not up to the job today clearing the 7 inches away. It did great on our sidewalks just not the driveway. I don't want to jinx us by buying another new one this year, likewise if it is looking meh for the next weeks should I hold off? I only ask because I know in retail they will be in full summer mode come February likewise the next season's snowblowers will show up in July haha. Wait. There will be dozens of unsold machines at this rate and marked down come 3/1 or even 2/15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 hours ago, psv88 said: Was -4 in 2018 on this date out here. Haven’t seen anything close in a while. Doubt we see single digits this winter How about this for a stat: In 1994 KDCA had four dates with minimum temperatures less than five degrees. How many times have they done that in the thirty years since? Zero times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Slim chance the 13th system trends more favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 49 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We still got our 3-5 quick shots in those days, and it would stick around. Our average snowfall the second half of the 80s was 11.125 inches (CPK). So even if it stuck around more it was pretty bad. Basically, you could have the same pattern 150 years ago, it would still yield little snow. I remembered many storms where it was in the teens that morning and we warmed up and rained then had flash freezes. RNA patterns yield cutters unfortunately. It may take a number of years to reset to a PNA pattern again. I am just happy I lived through 2000 through 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don do you think it's likely that February will be the coldest month this winter season? January at +0.7 will be much colder than December was and the February mean is only slightly milder than January, so it wouldn't take much for February to be colder than January. It could be given the evolution of ENSO, especially if the PDO- weakens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Have the hope that in spite of what the 80s were like 82-83 still happened and February was the best snowstorm we had between 1978 and 1996! In both 1982-83 and 2015-16 the south shore of Long Island had over 20 inch HECS! As a matter of fact JFK has had most of its 20"+ snowstorms during moderate and strong or very strong el ninos. (February 1983, 2003 PD2, January 2016). The other ones were in February 1961, February 1969, January 1996. So 6 total 20"+ snowstorms going back to 1960 at JFK and half of them were in moderate or strong or very strong el ninos. Every decade had at least 1 20"+ HECS at JFK (and the 60s had 2!) except the 70s (and many will tell you that the February 1978 HECS was grossly undermeasured at JFK at 14"-- when a nearby co-op in SW Nassau recorded 22" in that blizzard!) I am sure we will get one this decade as well. 2022 was close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: I am sure we will get one this decade as well. 2022 was close. If only 1/29 were a little more NW. I could’ve had what LI had (think some spots were over 20 inches, I had 16), and the immediate metro would’ve done a lot better. What I remember most fondly of that storm was the cold, 22F at the peak. Cold powder. Real winter stuff. Strong storm, it’s just a shame it only scraped the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: If only 1/29 were a little more NW. I could’ve had what LI had (think some spots were over 20 inches, I had 16), and the immediate metro would’ve done a lot better. What I remember most fondly of that storm was the cold, 22F at the peak. Cold powder. Real winter stuff. Strong storm, it’s just a shame it only scraped the area. Yeah CPK had a couple opportunities. It's tough in an RNA cycle but not impossible. The warm gulf stream can give a storm a good moisture boost as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am sure we will get one this decade as well. 2022 was close. It could be next year if not this year, la ninas after el ninos are really good too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 37 minutes ago, tmagan said: How about this for a stat: In 1994 KDCA had four dates with minimum temperatures less than five degrees. How many times have they done that in the thirty years since? Zero times. in 1994 NYC got to 0 on two separate arctic shots, I believe that's the first time that happened since the 1940s and of course it has not happened since. 3 total lows of 0 and below also the first time since the 1940s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 -PNA has a strong correlation to precip. >0.5 in January https://ibb.co/ZhPJnV9 -PNA in El Nino, especially Strong El Nino.. really wet combo there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -PNA has a strong correlation to precip. >0.5 in January https://ibb.co/ZhPJnV9 -PNA in El Nino.. really wet combo there what about for February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what about for February? Looks like it's about 0.3 https://ibb.co/P4sqQf5 (barely above 0.0 in March) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -PNA has a strong correlation to precip. >0.5 in January https://ibb.co/ZhPJnV9 -PNA in El Nino, especially Strong El Nino.. really wet combo there Thanks Chuck its great to have u posting in this forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Chuck its great to have u posting in this forum. Thanks. Globe has been really wet the last 4 months too. https://ibb.co/WpVDLKn 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Week ahead numbers: Warm and wet in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. Arctic air arrives in the Northwest and Northern Plains. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Alright I have a tough question to ask the crew. Do I buy a new snow blower this season or wait until end of the year clearance? Our tiny but still new snowblower was not up to the job today clearing the 7 inches away. It did great on our sidewalks just not the driveway. I don't want to jinx us by buying another new one this year, likewise if it is looking meh for the next weeks should I hold off? I only ask because I know in retail they will be in full summer mode come February likewise the next season's snowblowers will show up in July haha. It comes down to what you’re comfortable spending in the here and now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is GREAT-- I always LOVE these charts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Week ahead numbers: Warm and wet in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. Arctic air arrives in the Northwest and Northern Plains. Wednesday could hit 60, especially now that it's forecasted to be sunny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wednesday could hit 60, especially now that it's forecasted to be sunny! It will be a race between the timing of the sunshine and the arrival of cooler air. The high will likely be in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The cutter on the 13th issues on brutally cold air for the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now