January 2024

[Snowguy66]

Can someone set up a separate topic for the Tuesday Wednesday event? I am not seeing any updates on that storm and it’s only a few days away.


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[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Can someone set up a separate topic for the Tuesday Wednesday event? I am not seeing any updates on that storm and it’s only a few days away.


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There will be updates 

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup I already got that, just wanted to know how far back this data went back (perhaps 1950). 

I was looking at patterns in January for the strongest El Niños since 1950. The CONUS temperature gradient with the 2nd storm next weekend is pretty extreme even for a traditional La Niña January. The latest MJO forecast continues to gain amplitude. Not surprising that the RMMS are finally catching up to what the VP anomalies have been showing for a while. 
 

 

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was looking at patterns in January for the strongest El Niños since 1950. The CONUS temperature gradient with the 2nd storm next weekend is pretty extreme even for a traditional La Niña January. The latest MJO forecast continues to gain amplitude. Not surprising that the RMMS are finally catching up to what the VP anomalies have been showing for a while. 
 

 

Yeah it definitely is. I do hold hope for another high amplitude in phase 1 due to the high western IO temps. February can get interesting IMO. 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, guinness77 said:

I don’t know about hurricane gusts, but @wdrag has mentioned damaging winds as part of Tuesday’s storm for days now. I’ve been telling anyone who’ll listen to me (here on LI at least) that Tuesday night is the storm to be concerned about, not yesterday. 

Single model operational cycle guidance tends to be a little high, but I've attached the National BLEND OF MODFELS and is offering widespread 50-65 MPH gusts in the northeast USA Tuesday night, particularly the ridges even down to TN/NC and the coasts.  Expecting  850 MB (~5000')  winds in the 85-100 kt range for 3-6 hours across the northeast USA, I'd say we can't avoid at least scattered power outages, particularly NYS, and coastal NJ/LI.  The good news = few leafed trees. Still with leftover snow covered branches I84 north and/or rain softened ground due to the top 5 December rainfall up here and possibly January excesses (CP top 10 would be 6"), suggests to me to be prepared and no crying after the fact.  IFFFF and when the NWS issues watches for flooding and wind,  be smart and get safely ready and prepare.  Guidance is not perfect but am sure we'll construct a future outcome that will be of value.    I just interpret what I think is increasingly better guidance from numerous government resources (models etc).  The attribution for the improvement is a combination of research, higher resolution modeling both in the short and long term.  Cellar flooding and river flooding coming up for quite a few folks as well as power outages (percentage of population may be small but the impact radiates out to family-first responders, DPW's etc). Most of the oncoming rain in 9 hours Tuesday night. 

Here's the blend of model wind gusts... yellow starts 60 MPH. Snapshots at 00z/10 which is 7PM EST Tuesday and 06z/10 which is 1AM EST Wednesday. These numbers are tempered down via the blend from individual global model predictions. 

 

[snowman19]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was looking at patterns in January for the strongest El Niños since 1950. The CONUS temperature gradient with the 2nd storm next weekend is pretty extreme even for a traditional La Niña January. The latest MJO forecast continues to gain amplitude. Not surprising that the RMMS are finally catching up to what the VP anomalies have been showing for a while. 
 

 

It’s really hard to believe we are about to see a high amplitude MJO wave go through phases 4-5-6 with a super El Niño in place. But when you look at the SSTs in those regions, which are a total inferno, it makes sense. The atmosphere is always going to fire convection over the warmest SSTs and want to keep it there through positive feedback. I for one did not expect this because of the very strong Nino. At this point I guess no one would be shocked if the wave stalls in phase 7. The WPAC warm pool is like the movie Groundhog Day the last several years….no matter what the ENSO or PDO state

[EastonSN+]

Just now, snowman19 said:

It’s really hard to believe we are about to see a high amplitude MJO wave go through phases 4-5-6 with a super El Niño in place. But when you look at the SSTs in those regions, which are a total inferno, it makes sense. The atmosphere is always going to fire convection over the warmest SSTs and want to keep it there through positive feedback. I for one did not expect this because of the very strong Nino. At this point I guess no one would be shocked if the wave stalls in phase 7. The WPAC warm pool is like the movie Groundhog Day the last several years….no matter what the ENSO or PDO state

Phase 1 as well. Western IO temps are rising fast and really high now.

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

Actually can stall in phases 1 and 2 as well given the IO temps. 

[HVSnowLover]

The storm next weekend looks potentially interesting for the interior portions of the subforum if it transfers early enough. After that maybe the coast can get some real chances but I'll also believe it when I see it. 

[brooklynwx99]

@forkyfork lol

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I was looking at patterns in January for the strongest El Niños since 1950. The CONUS temperature gradient with the 2nd storm next weekend is pretty extreme even for a traditional La Niña January. The latest MJO forecast continues to gain amplitude. Not surprising that the RMMS are finally catching up to what the VP anomalies have been showing for a while. 
 

 

 

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s really hard to believe we are about to see a high amplitude MJO wave go through phases 4-5-6 with a super El Niño in place. But when you look at the SSTs in those regions, which are a total inferno, it makes sense. The atmosphere is always going to fire convection over the warmest SSTs and want to keep it there through positive feedback. I for one did not expect this because of the very strong Nino. At this point I guess no one would be shocked if the wave stalls in phase 7. The WPAC warm pool is like the movie Groundhog Day the last several years….no matter what the ENSO or PDO state

 

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 1 as well. Western IO temps are rising fast and really high now.

 

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Actually can stall in phases 1 and 2 as well given the IO temps. 

Another point that Dark Star references to is the Arctic pool of colder air. It LOOKS per Bluewave's post that some pretty negative anomolies are on the west coast. Now, unfortunately for this storm and this run through phases 1 and 2, the cold pool did not arrive on our side in advance. However, now that it is as long as it stays on our side our next trip through 1 and 2 may be quite nice.

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

 

 

 

Another point that Dark Star references to is the Arctic pool of colder air. It LOOKS per Bluewave's post that some pretty negative anomolies are on the west coast. Now, unfortunately for this storm and this run through phases 1 and 2, the cold pool did not arrive on our side in advance. However, now that it is as long as it stays on our side our next trip through 1 and 2 may be quite nice.

i'm not even really sure why we're talking about the MJO and a lack of Arctic air when the Plains are going to experience a legit Arctic outbreak that'll spill over here, and we're going to get a -NAO that displaces the TPV into SE Canada on all ensembles in the medium range. we're going to have chances coming up all the way to the coast, and perhaps a larger one when the block decays

[Rjay]

Yea it's def a good look.  

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'm not even really sure why we're talking about the MJO and a lack of Arctic air when the Plains are going to experience a legit Arctic outbreak that'll spill over here, and we're going to get a -NAO that displaces the TPV into SE Canada on all ensembles in the medium range. we're going to have chances coming up all the way to the coast, and perhaps a larger one when the block decays

Yup that is a good look. Obviously nothing is guaranteed however we would definitely take our chances with that.

[psv88]

Yup. As everyone has said, late January to mid February is our time. Universal agreement across the board about that. 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yup. As everyone has said, late January to mid February is our time. Universal agreement across the board about that. 

Bring it. I've got 3 machines that haven't seen a flake in 2 years. And a road grew stationed at the local mall dying for some overtime....

[North and West]

Yup. As everyone has said, late January to mid February is our time. Universal agreement across the board about that. 

*that’s a funny way to spell April for baseball games


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[bluewave]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s really hard to believe we are about to see a high amplitude MJO wave go through phases 4-5-6 with a super El Niño in place. But when you look at the SSTs in those regions, which are a total inferno, it makes sense. The atmosphere is always going to fire convection over the warmest SSTs and want to keep it there through positive feedback. I for one did not expect this because of the very strong Nino. At this point I guess no one would be shocked if the wave stalls in phase 7. The WPAC warm pool is like the movie Groundhog Day the last several years….no matter what the ENSO or PDO state

Yeah, I have been discussing this for a while now. You can tell the posters in British Columbia are really surprised to see a Nina-like Arctic outbreak during such a strong El Niño. This -PNA vortex forecast to dig into the West would be impressive for a very strong La Niña winter. 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I have been discussing this for a while now. You can tell the posters in the PAC NW and British Columbia are really surprised to see a Nina-like Arctic blast during such a strong El Niño. This -PNA vortex forecast to dig into the West would be impressive for a very strong La Niña winter. 

 

 

 

 

Yes, very good call from months ago! I think the strong -PDO background state is also playing a role as well

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, very good call from months ago! I think the strong -PDO background state is also playing a role as well

Thanks. The -PDO seems to be wrapped into this state as well. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

1980s (perhaps 1970s) through 1999 the trough was mainly in the west coast.

However 2000 through 2018 the trough was mainly in the east, which is actually what help lead the the low reservoir levels in the SW. The past few years, especially last year, the reservoirs out there have increased dramatically.

Since 2018 we have moved back to an RNA cycle it seems.

The above are averages, obviously you had the opposite occuring less frequently during these periods).

Below are the percentages of troughing in the Pacific, so not exactly PNA vs RNA.

why is it PNA vs RNA, instead of +PNA vs -PNA?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup that is a good look. Obviously nothing is guaranteed however we would definitely take our chances with that.

I remember when this was said back in December 2022 also ;-)

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Correct. The theme of the 80s was cold and dry warm and wet. I know a lot post that the 80s were FRIGID, however I do not remember that growing up. Rather I remember almost never getting a darn snow day. My dad saying it never snows anymore. I believe 80 through 84 may have had below average temps on average, while 85 through 89 were above (I do not have evidence of this, just going off snowfall distribution which was ok 80 through 84, however the second half CPK averaged less that 16 inches!!).

Januarys were much colder than they are now and Februarys were exceptionally mild.

Looking at that decade we had several Januarys in a row where the average temperature was in the mid to upper 20s.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

and the other times we missed out on snow that decade is when we were on the wrong side of the high and got the lake cutters...

Yes we got our arctic shots with dry weather and when precip moved in it rapidly warmed up.... similar to what's happened the last few years.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

snowing again now as the systesm pulls away

it was a flake here and there, not like what the radar depicted

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

That isn’t what I said. This will be among the strongest Niña-like systems during such a strong El Niño. Same goes or the record -PNA trough over the SW. Not that we never experienced a cutter track during a strong El Niño before. Just that this is a higher level of intensity. 

How does this compare to the OV bomb in January 1978 (I know that was a weak el nino but it was a second year el nino.)

 

[EastonSN+]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it PNA vs RNA, instead of +PNA vs -PNA?

I used to use - or + but I learned RNA from Typhoon Tip in the NE forum.

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember when this was said back in December 2022 also ;-)

 

Technically December 22 and March 2023.

The RNA was in a bad position and down to Baja. No NAO can over power that deep of a trough. We got accumulating snow yesterday due to the fact that the RNA was not nearly as deep and a little east of last year's.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the region's first winter storm, a severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds, and possibly significant coastal flooding. Significant beach erosion is also likely. Temperatures could surge into the 50s.

Late next week, a genuine Arctic air mass will likely begin pushing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing.

The SOI was +2.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.671 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On January 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.023 (RMM). The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.355 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.4° (0.7° above normal).