SACRUS Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 36 and after somewhat of a coating 1.05 inches of rain. 2- 4 inches of rain Tue into Wed. Deep freeze into the west 1/10 ,bleeds east 1/17 - 1/24 which could offer opportunities for snow. Believe that week or so could make or break the season pending on delievry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sometimes La Ninas like those can overcome the -PNA Western trough tendency which makes them so special. The trough in a few days near New Mexico is forecast to be among the strongest on record for this time of year. Just shows how the Niña-like MJO phases can operate even during El Niño’s this strong. This was pretty much unheard of with such strong El Niños before 15-16. It’s what happens when the WPAC warm pool competes with the Nino warming near the Central to Eastern Pacific. since those were la ninas after el ninos, do you think next winter has potential to be a very good winter for snow for us too? Looking ahead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And now it's leading to these powerful rainy cutters which are becoming increasingly concerning given recent rains. Very strong winds with saturated ground ain't good either. And finally we'll likely see significant coastal flooding too with new moon nearby. and we could hit 60 on Wednesday since it now looks like the sun will come out that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, jets said: I would be concerned about very strong winds later Tuesday. Some of those numbers are a bit scary No one has mentioned wind speeds anywhere, how fast could these winds get? are we talking about hurricane speeds in wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, jets said: I would be concerned about very strong winds later Tuesday. Some of those numbers are a bit scary As of now BUFKIT momentum transfers do not show it really mixes down outside of maybe 1 hour or 2...similar to that last event it may be the same ordeal where only immediate coast does it for a short window 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Records: Highs: EWR: 64 (2012) NYC: 64 (1907) LGA: 62 (2012) Lows: EWR: 3 (2014) deep freeze10 years ago NYC: 4 (2014) LGA: 4 (2014) Historical: 1873 - A blizzard raged across the Great Plains. Many pioneers, unprepared for the cold and snow, perished in southwest Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. (David Ludlum) 1971 - The temperature at Hawley Lake, located southeast of McNary, AZ, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. produced 30 inches of snow north of Zion National Park in southern Utah, with 18 inches reported at Cedar Canyon UT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A winter storm in the southeastern U.S. produced 27 inches of snow in the Bad Creek area of South Carolina, and claimed the lives of two million chickens in Alabama. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A tornado in southern Illinois obliterated half the community of Allendale, injuring fifty perons and causing more than five million dollars damage, while thunderstorm winds gusting higher than 100 mph caused ten million dollars damage at Franklin KY. Twenty-five cities, from the Gulf coast to Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989: Empty foundations are all that remain of four homes on the southwest end of Allendale, Illinois after an F4 tornado ripped through. The tornado was extremely rare due to its strength and the fact that it occurred so far north during the middle of meteorological winter. 1990 - A rapidly intensifying low pressure system and a vigorous cold front brought heavy rain and high winds to the Pacific Northwest. Two to five inches rains soaked western Washington and western Oregon, and winds gusting above 70 mph caused extensive damage. Wind gusts on Rattlesnake Ridge in Washington State reached 130 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2008: A rare, EF3 tornado tracked across southeastern Wisconsin. Experiencing a tornado in Wisconsin in January is extremely rare. In fact, it had only happened once between 1950 and 2007, when an F3 tornado affected parts of Green and Rock Counties on January 24, 1967. That tornado in South Central Wisconsin was part of a much larger outbreak of 30 tornadoes across mostly Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Wisconsin ended up with 30 tornadoes in 1967. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Based off the current longer range guidance we could see some strong swings in temperatures around 1/17 from strong warm southerly flow to rapidly expansive arctic airmass. 30-50 degree swing in the makings? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, SACRUS said: Based off the current longer range guidance we could see some strong swings in temperatures around 1/17 from strong warm southerly flow to rapidly expansive arctic airmass. 30-50 degree swing in the makings? from 60s to 10s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We'll see how this evolves post 1/16 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMCNA_0z/test8.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: from 60s to 10s? We'll see - way out there but based off some of the latest forecasts a significant swing could be in the works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: No one has mentioned wind speeds anywhere, how fast could these winds get? are we talking about hurricane speeds in wind gusts? I don’t know about hurricane gusts, but @wdrag has mentioned damaging winds as part of Tuesday’s storm for days now. I’ve been telling anyone who’ll listen to me (here on LI at least) that Tuesday night is the storm to be concerned about, not yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, guinness77 said: I don’t know about hurricane gusts, but @wdrag has mentioned damaging winds as part of Tuesday’s storm for days now. I’ve been telling anyone who’ll listen to me (here on LI at least) that Tuesday night is the storm to be concerned about, not yesterday. I'm worried about power outages I was aware that the wind is going to be strong, just no specifics on exactly how strong. There is a big difference here between 50 mph, 60 mph and 70 mph. At 50 mph we are usually fine, at 60 mph we start having problems with power, at 70 mph there are tree limbs flying around and I'm worried about my windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And now it's leading to these powerful rainy cutters which are becoming increasingly concerning given recent rains. Very strong winds with saturated ground ain't good either. And finally we'll likely see significant coastal flooding too with new moon nearby. Being on the warm side of two strong systems passing to our west next week is going to to continue the Northeast flooding pattern from 2023. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm worried about power outages I was aware that the wind is going to be strong, just no specifics on exactly how strong. There is a big difference here between 50 mph, 60 mph and 70 mph. At 50 mph we are usually fine, at 60 mph we start having problems with power, at 70 mph there are tree limbs flying around and I'm worried about my windows From what I’ve read here and seen other places, I’m expecting 60mph-plus gusts, 30-40 sustained by nighttime. Definitely expecting a HWW. NWS is only listing winds up to Tuesday afternoon. I’m not looking forward to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This is the most Nina-like January storm track pattern we have seen during such a strong El Niño. Two high impact Great Lakes storm tracks with heavy rains, flooding, and strong winds a few days apart. Just shows how strong the -PNA trough out West is. Thanks Bluewave! It's pretty incredible that we never experienced the cutter storm track in a strong el nino before. How far back was this data taken? Really surprised 82/83 did not have a mean trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nam looking quite wild with wind gusts for Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Bluewave! It's pretty incredible that we never experienced the cutter storm track in a strong el nino before. How far back was this data taken? Really surprised 82/83 did not have a mean trough out west. Fo the last 40 years or so western troughs have been the main feature..Yes we do get those winters with a trough in the east, but they are not common. I wonder why?..Climate, the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Bluewave! It's pretty incredible that we never experienced the cutter storm track in a strong el nino before. How far back was this data taken? Really surprised 82/83 did not have a mean trough out west. That isn’t what I said. This will be among the strongest Niña-like systems during such a strong El Niño. Same goes or the record -PNA trough over the SW. Not that we never experienced a cutter track during a strong El Niño before. Just that this is a higher level of intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 30 minutes ago, guinness77 said: I don’t know about hurricane gusts, but @wdrag has mentioned damaging winds as part of Tuesday’s storm for days now. I’ve been telling anyone who’ll listen to me (here on LI at least) that Tuesday night is the storm to be concerned about, not yesterday. It’s all about how much the wind gusts can transfer to the ground. If there’s an inversion it’ll get windy but the strong gusts will stay aloft. Right now it looks like a windy 40-50mph system but hopefully not more damaging 60+ mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Bluewave! It's pretty incredible that we never experienced the cutter storm track in a strong el nino before. How far back was this data taken? Really surprised 82/83 did not have a mean trough out west. 82-83 was much colder, that entire decade was much colder (irrespective of snowfall.) At least 50% of the time we missed out on snow because it was too cold and it suppressed the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Fo the last 40 years or so western troughs have been the main feature..Yes we do get those winters with a trough in the east, but they are not common. I wonder why?..Climate, the Pacific? you can have a trough on both coasts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nam looking quite wild with wind gusts for Tuesday. That 12z run was insane! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, jets said: That 12z run was insane! sounds like widespread 60mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: That isn’t what I said. This will be among the strongest Niña-like systems during such a strong El Niño. Same goes or the record -PNA trough over the SW. Not that we never experienced a cutter track during a strong El Niño before. Just that this is a higher level of intensity. Yup I already got that, just wanted to know how far back this data went back (perhaps 1950). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 43 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Fo the last 40 years or so western troughs have been the main feature..Yes we do get those winters with a trough in the east, but they are not common. I wonder why?..Climate, the Pacific? 1980s (perhaps 1970s) through 1999 the trough was mainly in the west coast. However 2000 through 2018 the trough was mainly in the east, which is actually what help lead the the low reservoir levels in the SW. The past few years, especially last year, the reservoirs out there have increased dramatically. Since 2018 we have moved back to an RNA cycle it seems. The above are averages, obviously you had the opposite occuring less frequently during these periods). Below are the percentages of troughing in the Pacific, so not exactly PNA vs RNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sounds like widespread 60mph gusts I HATE wind events. I bet this happens at night too which is the worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 OLR maps keeps the mjo wave in p2/3…selling those RMM charts for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 82-83 was much colder, that entire decade was much colder (irrespective of snowfall.) At least 50% of the time we missed out on snow because it was too cold and it suppressed the storm track. and the other times we missed out on snow that decade is when we were on the wrong side of the high and got the lake cutters... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 snowing again now as the systesm pulls away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Dark Star said: and the other times we missed out on snow that decade is when we were on the wrong side of the high and got the lake cutters... Correct. The theme of the 80s was cold and dry warm and wet. I know a lot post that the 80s were FRIGID, however I do not remember that growing up. Rather I remember almost never getting a darn snow day. My dad saying it never snows anymore. I believe 80 through 84 may have had below average temps on average, while 85 through 89 were above (I do not have evidence of this, just going off snowfall distribution which was ok 80 through 84, however the second half CPK averaged less that 16 inches!!). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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