January 2024

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point a single warning event would be a miracle. 

It's crazy that we're going on 2 years without one. Makes me lucky to be alive during the snowy 2000s & 2010s. 

Now the SSW is being played up that will save winter haha 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Now the SSW is being played up that will save winter haha 

Most El Ninos don't really kick off winter until late Jan and Feb so that's probably our best shot this year. 

I think 15-20" could be reasonable as it wouldn't take much. The SSW timing would align well with Nino climo too given its lag time. 

[EastonSN+]

Wiki

"The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1990–95 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession.^{[141][142][unreliable source?][143]} An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events.^[144] Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching"."^[145]

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Most El Ninos don't really kick off winter until late Jan and Feb so that's probably our best shot this year. 

I think 15-20" could be reasonable as it wouldn't take much. The SSW timing would align well with Nino climo too given its lag time. 

Problem I see is if the pac is hostile the cold will dump west. 
 

Looks like forcing will get into p3 so that might help the look out west 

[WX-PA]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Correct, and I for one was so excited to get out of the la Nina phase that I ignored the fact that strong El ninos are just as bad. I am just hoping we can keep next year's la Nina weak at this point. 

66-67.95-96, and 10-11 were La Nina winters.As long as their not strong we can do fine..I'd rather have a strong La Nina then strong el nino..Strong el nino's are the worst..no cold air and strong pacific jet. However they are known for that one big snowstorm usually in late Jan or february.Example 83 and 16.

[Rjay]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point a single warning event would be a miracle. 

It's crazy that we're going on 2 years without one. Makes me lucky to be alive during the snowy 2000s & 2010s. 

It's December 26th.  Why would it be a miracle?

[WX-PA]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you look at all the official El Niño winters going all the way back to 1940, that had less than an inch of snow, total on 1/1, only a few got to 20 inches or more for the rest of the season. It’s ugly

77-78.65-66,..that's incorrect

[EastonSN+]

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

77-78.65-66,..that's incorrect

Thanks! 77/78 had two monster snowstorms - was the El nino this strong? Would give us more hope if it was.

[WX-PA]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! 77/78 had two monster snowstorms - was the El nino this strong? Would give us more hope if it was.

Nope it was weak, 65-66 was strong..I just pointed this out because he said ALL ell nino's

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

77-78.65-66,..that's incorrect

Did you actually read my post?? That would classify as “a few” smh

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Problem I see is if the pac is hostile the cold will dump west. 
 

Looks like forcing will get into p3 so that might help the look out west 

The only periods since 18-19 that the Pacific wasn’t hostile were the 20-21 winter and January 22. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only periods since 18-19 that the Pacific wasn’t hostile were the 20-21 winter and January 22. 

January to February 2021 was a nnj special stretch. Loved that winter 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only periods since 18-19 that the Pacific wasn’t hostile were the 20-21 winter and January 22. 

Yup. Trying to investigate the horrid 1970 through 1999 stretch and it looks like the late 80s through the mid 90s had a predominantly hostile PAC.

[Brian5671]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No we aren't.  What are you even talking about ?  The pessimism and trolling is annoying in this subforum compared to other subforums.

 

First it was late December, then it was Jan 1 now we're pushing into Jan.   Pessimism?  Can you blame anyone-NYC is coming up on 2 yrs w/o an inch of snow....

[Volcanic Winter]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

January to February 2021 was a nnj special stretch. Loved that winter 

Got to break in my WRX on the Feb 1st storm. Was fun 

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

First it was late December, then it was Jan 1 now we're pushing into Jan.   Pessimism?  Can you blame anyone-NYC is coming up on 2 yrs w/o an inch of snow....

Now earthlight and bamwx playing up the SSW…

 

We are in trouble haha 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup. Trying to investigate the horrid 1970 through 1999 stretch and it looks like the late 80s through the mid 90s had a predominantly hostile PAC.

This period is showing us something we haven’t seen before. While we will eventually see another 1” and 2” in NYC and surrounding stations, this long a streak hasn’t happened before.

It definitely seems like a shift began to occur with the super El Niño in 2015. We had a record 8 warmer than average winters in a row since then. This December was another top 10 warmest at our local stations.

But the 15-16 to 17-18 winters were still snowy. So it seems like those were still part of the snowier interval which began in 09-10. Then in 18-19 we began a 5 year run with much lower and frequently disappointing snowfall outcomes. This is when the warmer patterns began to overlap with less snowy. 
 

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Now earthlight and bamwx playing up the SSW…

 

We are in trouble haha 

SSW could work out-but it seems the most recent ones the cold ends up on the other side of the globe

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Now earthlight and bamwx playing up the SSW…

 

We are in trouble haha 

All the meteorologists  on Twitter including the good ones are forecasting it.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This period is showing us something we haven’t seen before. While we will eventually see another 1” and 2” in NYC and surrounding stations, this long a streak hasn’t happened before.

It definitely seems like a shift began to occur with the super El Niño in 2015. We had a record 8 warmer than average winters in a row since then. This December was another top 10 warmest at our local stations.

But the 15-16 to 17-18 winters were still snowy. So it seems like those were still part of the snowier interval which began in 09-10. Then in 18-19 we began a 5 year run with much lower and frequently disappointing snowfall outcomes. This is when the warmer patterns began to overlap with less snowy. 
 

 

I would include 2000 through 2018 as the extreme snowy period.

You could be right about a new regime, however for me personally I need to see this stretch eclipse at least the 15 year period of 85 through 99 where we only experienced 2 above normal and 1 normal snowfall season. Excluding this year, we have experienced 1 above average snowfall winter in 5 years so sort of on pace....

[donsutherland1]

The absence of measurable snow, the growing weight of the longest 1" and 2" daily snowfall droughts on record, and the prospect that December 2023 could become New York City's second warmest December on record have taken a toll. New York City isn't alone.

Misery loves company. Misery has company.

Baltimore and Philadelphia are suffering through their longest stretches on record without 1" or more daily snowfall. Green Bay recorded its 3rd consecutive 50° high temperature this morning, which will exceed the Green Bay Packers' longest December winning streak this year. It also beats the latest-season such occurrence of such warmth (December 7-9, 1946) by more than two weeks. December 2023 will easily surpass December 2015 as Milwaukee's warmest December on record. Even if Baltimore, Boston, Bridgeport, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, Richmond and Washington, DC pool all their snowfall to date, they can't come up with an inch of the precious frozen water.

Nevertheless, the pattern will change for the first week of January. It will turn seasonably cold to somewhat colder than normal in the Northeast.

To those psychologically scarred by December's terrible combination of warmth, lack of snowfall, and failed social media prophesies of imminent, sustained, deep cold, this change might not seem like much. To some, it might not even be noticeable. But it will be real.

Initially, things will be dry. But as the relatively short-duration "chill" begins to depart, a wetter pattern could develop. Perhaps, the timing might be just right to allow for the kind of widespread measurable snow event that has yet to occur this late-starting winter.

The longer-term outlook will depend on factors such as the possible development of a sudden stratospheric warming event (even if not major), the evolution of the ongoing strong El Niño event, and distortionary effects of ongoing marine heatwaves. The effects of the potential sudden stratospheric warming event might begin to impact the region in the closing days of January and into the start of February. That period has often been a favorable one in ENSO climatology.

Unlike in past years where 10 mb maps are used to proclaim anything that looks like a warming as a coming sudden stratsopheric warming event, the upcoming event looks real and has strong ensemble support.

For now, one's patience will be tried. The siren call of social medial prophesy of imminent outbreaks of severe cold and great snowstorms (often coupled with end-of-range CFSv2 maps or GFS operational runs) will create the kind of noise that makes the pain even greater. Temptations to rush the effects of the sudden stratospheric warming event, which typically take 2-4 weeks to start to unfold, could be another aggravating factor.

For now, the focus should be on what's just ahead: the short-duration cooler but not cold pattern to start 2024. Perhaps it could afford some opportunity for snowfall before it gives way to another mild period.

Historically, New York City has never seen two consecutive seasons with less than 10" of snow. Moreover, the least snowfall over two seasons is the 15.5" total that fell during 1996-97 and 1997-98.

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

SSW could work out-but it seems the most recent ones the cold ends up on the other side of the globe

It’s rough times if we need a SSW to help us get a inch of snow in NYC 

[North and West]

Yup. Trying to investigate the horrid 1970 through 1999 stretch and it looks like the late 80s through the mid 90s had a predominantly hostile PAC.

If the boards existed from 1988 through 1993, and again 1997 to 2000, people would have lost their collective minds.


.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

That would classify as “a few” smh

 Also, 1986-7 and 2015-6 El Nino winters had both under an inch through Dec and 20”+ Jan+. So, there have been four and all four had 11.6”+ in January, alone.

 Since 1939-40, there have been 10 El Niños with <1” through Dec. That’s out of 28 total El Ninos. So, 36% of them had <1” meaning not highly unusual. Thus out of those 10, four (40%) had 20”+ Jan+. That’s not that low of a %.

 I’ll now compare to non-Nino winters. Regarding non-Nino winters since 1939-40, I count 13 with <1” through Dec. That’s 13 out of 56 non-Nino or 23% of them. So, having <1” through Dec has been significantly more unusual during non-Nino (23%) than during Nino (36%). Out of those 13 during non-Nino, only 4 (31%) ended up with 20” Jan+ vs the 40% for El Niño. So, being in El Niño helped some for the slow starters.
 
 Out of all 84 winters since 1939-40, 41 of them (49%) had <20” Jan+. So, not getting 20”+ Jan+ is nearly a coin flip for all winters. Out of the 23 total winters with <1” through Dec, 15 (65%) had <20” Jan+. That means that out of the 61 total winters with 1”+ through Dec, 26 (43%) had <20” Jan+ vs the 65% for winters with 1”+ through Dec. So, having <1” through Dec does increase the chance somewhat for Jan+ to have <20”.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

If the boards existed from 1988 through 1993, and again 1997 to 2000, people would have lost their collective minds.


.

Yup. Really 1970 through 1999 was dreadful. It will make the next 1993/1994, 1995/1996 that much more enjoyable.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

SSW could work out-but it seems the most recent ones the cold ends up on the other side of the globe

Yeah he said it's gonna get cold.....in Europe 

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

If the boards existed from 1988 through 1993, and again 1997 to 2000, people would have lost their collective minds.


.

Meh we kinda came to expect crappy winters with 1 or 2 3 to 6" events by that point. We weren't spoiled with 60" winters

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It’s rough times if we need a SSW to help us get a inch of snow in NYC 

We generally don’t do as well following SSWs during El Niños that weren’t already snowy before the event. December 1972 and 2006 only had a trace of snow or less in December like this year. The SSW in December 1965 even happened earlier and that December only had a trace. We can’t really count on a repeat of 15-16 since that was an extreme outlier compared to most other years.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

Seasonal El Niño snowfall in NYC with only a T or less in December

2006-2007….12.4…..SSW…2-24

2015-2016….32.8

1997-1998…..5.5

1994-1995…..11.8

1972-1973…..2.8…..SSW….2-2

1965-1966….21.4….SSW…12-8

1877-1878…..8.1

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meh we kinda came to expect crappy winters with 1 or 2 3 to 6" events by that point. We weren't spoiled with 60" winters

Too warm now. 1-3 happens with 30s/20s split.

Our climate is now 40s/30s split. you need a big storm that pulls in cold air for that so it becomes all or nothing thing.

 

That has been on display for the last 20 years but it’s been masked by the amount of big storms we had

 

as for the comparison between the 70s and 90s… stop doing it. It’s a much warmer climate, and while there may be similarities in terms of storm track and background state, the reality is we are so far removed from any winter weather at this point there’s nothing in that time That even comes comes close