Brian5671 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: The end of January into February is highlighted by many for winter to turn around. Just 25 short days away! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Here is a legit question, did ANY El nino work out for us in the 90s? 94/95 and 97/98 were complete duds. 95/96 was a la Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I doubt we see p8 in February if that wave gets so strong in 4-7 So all the calls for a backloaded winter will be in jeopardy again. This is why I hate long range forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Just 25 short days away! PB said game on Be patient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So all the calls for a backloaded winter will be in jeopardy again. This is why I hate long range forecasting. 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: PB said game on Be patient These two posts are juxtaposed against each other haha. I’m worried about this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I doubt we see p8 in February if that wave gets so strong in 4-7 If we do eventually make it to 8, I hope we do better than the record phase 8 last March. But it’s still very uncertain since we saw how we avoided phase 8 a few weeks ago. So much SST warmth back into phase 7 near the Dateline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: If we do eventually make it to 8, I hope we do better then the record phase 8 last March. But it’s still very uncertain since we saw how we avoided phase 8 a few weeks go. So much SST warmth back into phase 7 near the Dateline. I do like the rising ocean temps off Africa for phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Feb still looks good. the MJO traverses through the crappier phases pretty quickly and the rising air over the MC is replaced with subsidence 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Both systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Bluewave, Brooklyn, Allsnow - Chuck did say we are in a decadal RNA. Also, we were in one in the 80s and 90s. Now, 94/95 and 97/98 were failed El ninos in a decadal RNA pattern, so is this year an example, like the 90s, where El ninos work against us in a decadal RNA? Does this mean, like 21/22 and 95/96, that's la ninas work better in decadal RNAs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 heights out west are trending a lot better on the GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Bluewave, Brooklyn, Allsnow - Chuck did say we are in a decadal RNA. Also, we were in one in the 80s and 90s. Now, 94/95 and 97/98 were failed El ninos in a decadal RNA pattern, so is this year an example, like the 90s, where El ninos work against us in a decadal RNA? Does this mean, like 21/22 and 95/96, that's la ninas work better in decadal RNAs? i don't think this year will fail us in the PNA department when it matters in February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 06Z GFS at 384 is a great example why a -NAO does not matter all the time...that storm extrapolated if you want to take it as gospel would probably take like a 1/87 track but there would still be significant snow at the coast before probably it switched...it shows though that the big west ridge and just the trof position being better often matters more than a -NAO. To be fair I am cheating a bit on this statement as 72 hours before the NAO is negative and we do often see storms happen during a flip but we've also had many decent snows with a huge west ridge/well positioned eastern trof and a neutral or +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The gefs and geps really look incredible around the 17th . Block moves wests and pops the pna classic look 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Cold in Asia https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/05/weather-tracker-beijing-experiences-coldest-december-since-1951 And Scandonavia https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2024/1/3/24023844/sweden-finland-denmark-extreme-cold-spell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The gefs and geps really look incredible around the 17th . Block moves wests and pops the pna classic look Much as 1/6-1/7 looked like a favorable window 8-10 days ago before we had a week of a bad pattern likely after it looks the same to me now for 1/17....the bad pattern after is not showing just yet on ensembles really but if the MJO forecasts are correct it should begin to over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Bluewave, Brooklyn, Allsnow - Chuck did say we are in a decadal RNA. Yeah, ever since the AMO changed in 1995, we have had 15 La Nina's, and 9 El Nino's, but even the Neutral's/some El Nino's are showing La Nina-forcing coming from the equator. https://ibb.co/2csFL89 https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn I found yesterday that if you expand the dataset, the AMO cycles seem to correlate slightly to PNA/RNA, especially in the Winter time. +AMO does appear to have a correlation to SE ridge, and -AMO SE trough: Decadal AMO https://ibb.co/QJbBxt8 1st +AMO (1926 to 1965) https://ibb.co/HPj0Hqq 2nd +AMO (1996 to 2023) https://ibb.co/xsgJp81 1st -AMO (1900 to 1925) https://ibb.co/4dNrvht 2nd -AMO (1966 to 1995) https://ibb.co/PGbGTBx I am weary of calling the cycle PDO, because there are equal heights in the S. Hemisphere beneath Nino 3.4 (the strongest known impactful region) of the same magnitude as N. Hemisphere. It seems to be just a La Nina-base state (RNA correlation). Even Neutral ENSO since 1998 has looked more like a La Nina-forcing https://ibb.co/g7ffp52 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, ever since the AMO changed in 1995, we have had 15 La Nina's, and 9 El Nino's, but even the Neutral's/some El Nino's are showing La Nina-forcing coming from the equator. https://ibb.co/2csFL89 https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn I found yesterday that if you expand the dataset, the AMO cycles seem to correlate slightly to PNA/RNA, especially in the Winter time. +AMO does appear to have a correlation to SE ridge, and -AMO SE trough Decadal AMO https://ibb.co/QJbBxt8 1st +AMO (1926 to 1965) https://ibb.co/HPj0Hqq 2nd +AMO (1996 to 2023) https://ibb.co/xsgJp81 1st -AMO (1900 to 1925) https://ibb.co/4dNrvht 2nd -AMO (1966 to 1995) https://ibb.co/PGbGTBx I am weary of calling the cycle PDO, because there are equal heights in the S. Hemisphere beneath Nino 3.4 (the strongest known impactful region) of the same magnitude as N. Hemisphere. Hopefully AMO flips soon...it showed signs it might for awhile 4-5 years back but this may end up being a 35 year cycle which means we are still 7 years or so away from any flip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/2/2024 at 8:10 AM, bluewave said: You can see why the GEFS has a deeper trough in the West than the EPS. Much stronger MJO through 4. I know the EPS has issues with convection near the Maritime Continent related to the barrier effect. But this is the most extreme MJO divergence I have ever see between the two models. Gefs loss this battle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro is a hair better maybe on paper to today's setup but you'd likely end up with almost the same result, perhaps you'd see a bit more snow further south if it translated as shown but I still think thats an inland event probably 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gefs loss this battle The GEFS did much better with the amplitude of the overall MJO wave moving across since the Euro missed the phase 4 and beyond. That is the lagged 3 showing up. Hopefully we can put something together during that 5 day window before we get the 4 response after the 20th. Plus the EPS chart for the same frame is nearly identical to the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Is stratospheric warming still forecasted by guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GEFS did much better with the amplitude of the overall MJO wave moving across since the Euro missed the phase 4 and beyond. That is the lagged 3 showing up. Hopefully we can put something together during that 5 day window before we get the 4 response after the 20th. Plus the EPS chart for the same frame is nearly identical to the GEFS. Definitely not the same with the position of the block which the eps has lead the way on and the hgts off The west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Allsnow said: Definitely not the same with the position of the block which the eps has lead the way on I think the EPS did better with the -NAO due to seeing that double wave break better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Model support growing for major Arctic dump of cold air into the western 1/3 of the U.S. and then oozing east. Tremendous surface high pressure (1050-1055 mb) forecast to build over northern and western Canada to aid and abet the Arctic plunge. Temperature departures could reach 50-60 below normal over parts of MT/WY. Worth watching as it looks like a dynamic pattern is setting up. We'll see if any southern branch s/w can phase with northern branch s/w to really make things interesting. Southern branch looks to stay active and juiced so MAYBE things will work out for something really noteworthy next 10-14 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: Is stratospheric warming still forecasted by guidance? We have been having a minor Stratosphere warming for the last 12 days. https://ibb.co/2YgZXJm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At 5 pm, light snow was falling in Central Park and Newark. Rain was falling in Philadelphia, Trenton, and Belmar. As of 4 pm, Central Park had recorded a trace of snow while Newark had picked up 0.1". Snow and/or mixed precipitation will become all rain along the coast. The precipitation will end on Sunday possibly as light snow or snow showers. The storm will bring a coating of snow to Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island, up to a slushy inch to Central Park, and up to 2" in the Bronx. 3"-6" of snow will fall well north and west of New York City. Following the region's first winter storm, a severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds, and possibly significant coastal flooding. Significant beach erosion is also likely. Temperatures could surge into the 50s. Late next week, a genuine Arctic air mass will likely begin pushing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was -7.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.292 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.355 (RMM). The January 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.302(RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 HH GFS with a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 QPF is still concerning for the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 It's trying, there are few larger flakes but the snow here remains quite light. There's now a slushy coating on the lawn, but not enough yet to call measurable. Temp down to 33.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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