forkyfork Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That's true, but do we know why that area is warming faster, and why the western IO cannot overtake it in warmth? My point just being it can change like when the warm blob off the northwest was there then cycles away. For now, we have to deal with that area but could theoretically change i think it's just the general ocean circulation that piles the warm water there. the same happens with the western atlantic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Belleayre today. 23F 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Next weekend might be worth keeping an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 minutes ago, Nibor said: Next weekend might be worth keeping an eye on. Probably more rain but thanks for bringing it to our attention. Looks like potentially 3 big storms in a week and something at least to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Probably more rain but thanks for bringing it to our attention. Looks like potentially 3 big storms in a week and something at least to track. Euro has a snowstorm for the interior but it develops a huge block. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro has a snowstorm for the interior but it develops a huge block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If we don’t get a inch of snow from this look I give up 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t get a inch of snow from this look I give up Could that be a cold and dry look? Seems as though trough is a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Could that be a cold and dry look? Seems as though trough is a bit east. Depends on if we can get something off the tpv to phase with a shortwave. Again, just looking for a inch of snow not a KU 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The block decays on the eps and pops a pna ridge out west 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The block decays on the eps and pops a pna ridge out west that's the real timeframe where something bigger can occur, if it's correct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 51 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t get a inch of snow from this look I give up reminds me of late Jan into early Feb in 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 MLK week has my attention. It already had my attention, but now that modeling is aligning with longer range...got some pieces on the board 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t get a inch of snow from this look I give up It looks good now, but let’s see if that actually holds. IMO we are 15 days from put up or shut up time. If we have nothing come 1/20 and an actual sustained (not a one week, transient) change to colder/snowier isn’t actually happening or definitely, 100% imminent, not “Omg! The long range day 15-30 EPS and the weeklies look amazing! Historic! Just wait!” Then it’s time to think about calling this one a ratter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: i think it's just the general ocean circulation that piles the warm water there. the same happens with the western atlantic so if we want to change the climate, the first thing we need to do is change the ocean circulation, hmmmm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah Bluewave is great, and perhaps my views are skewed do to living through a period where CPKs annual snowfall average was 11.125 lol (late 90s) and late 80s. Approx 15.5. However my point is more that yes we are stuck in an MJO phase spread due to the ocean temps, however why CAN'T that change with time? Western IO temps are exploding so that would Favor phases 1 and 2! So we can move to another great period, especially with gulf stream temps adding fuel. I will panic once it stops snowing in Norfolk Virginia/Delmarva lol. DC is a bad comparison cause through history they are always too far north for southern sliderz and too far south for northern stream miller Bs. sometimes we're in a really bad spot for snow too. It just depends. However in general, if you really love snow you should move away from the ocean and find some elevation. Sure the climate is changing, but we can change where we live too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t get a inch of snow from this look I give up That's a massive Aleutian ridge, wish it were a bit further east though. A 500mb pattern like that would probably mean a lot of clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: so if we want to change the climate, the first thing we need to do is change the ocean circulation, hmmmm That is the basis of a good Clive Cussler book fyi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: That is the basis of a good Clive Cussler book fyi I need to read it-- whats the title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sometimes we're in a really bad spot for snow too. It just depends. However in general, if you really love snow you should move away from the ocean and find some elevation. Sure the climate is changing, but we can change where we live too. We are the exception rather than the rule. Most people that I speak to off this forum can’t wait to move to a warmer climate like Florida once they retire. So they love mild winters with as little snow as possible. But there is good news for someone that has the ability to move if they love snow. The Great Lakes are one of the few spots expected to see increasing snowfall for a while longer due to less ice and warmer lake temperatures. It’s a great location for someone willing to buck the trend of the US population moving south and west over time. Plus the Great Lakes are a beautiful natural environment with plenty of year round activities. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/paradox-lake-effect-snow-global-warming-could-bring-great-lakes-more-itPreviously, I discussed a lake effect snow event that buried many places across the Great Lakes. Snow streaming off the lakes is a common occurrence during the late autumn and early winter as cold wintry air from the North begins to filter into the United States over the still relatively warm Great Lakes. But what does the future hold for this lake effect snow machine as surface temperatures continue to warm and our climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions? Would you believe it might actually mean more lake effect snow in the short term? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Even lake effect zones are changing and becoming more altitude based, particularly in the North Country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 High of 37 at nyc…finally stayed in the 30’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t get a inch of snow from this look I give up West is where it's at. Been that way for several years now. But we'll get a chance eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are the exception rather than the rule. Most people that I speak to off this forum can’t wait to move to a warmer climate like Florida once they retire. So they love mild winters with as little snow as possible. But there is good news for someone that has the ability to move if they love snow. The Great Lakes are one of the few spots expected to see increasing snowfall for a while longer due to less ice and warmer lake temperatures. It’s a great location for someone willing to buck the trend of the US population moving south and west over time. Plus the Great Lakes are a beautiful natural environment with plenty of year round activities. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/paradox-lake-effect-snow-global-warming-could-bring-great-lakes-more-itPreviously, I discussed a lake effect snow event that buried many places across the Great Lakes. Snow streaming off the lakes is a common occurrence during the late autumn and early winter as cold wintry air from the North begins to filter into the United States over the still relatively warm Great Lakes. But what does the future hold for this lake effect snow machine as surface temperatures continue to warm and our climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions? Would you believe it might actually mean more lake effect snow in the short term? Chris, do you think the slow action on climate change is in part due to the fact that many people actually WANT a warmer climate? I've been thinking that for awhile now, and even in scientific circles people are talking about this and saying-- if our climate becomes more like Hawaii wouldn't that be a good thing because Hawaii has the greatest concentration of biodiversity on the planet so wouldn't a warmer world give us a more biodiverse world? Aside from this, wouldn't the Northern Rockies be another great location from snow since they seem to get heavy snowfalls regardless of what's going on at lower elevations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Even lake effect zones are changing and becoming more altitude based, particularly in the North Country. Plus Watertown is the ideal NE location for April's total solar eclipse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: West is where it's at. Been that way for several years now. But we'll get a chance eventually Yeah it'll happen this month but probably not tomorrow. I honestly felt NYC would get 1 inch from this. I am fairly confident now they do not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: That's a massive Aleutian ridge, wish it were a bit further east though. A 500mb pattern like that would probably mean a lot of clippers. 13 days out, little faith in the accuracy. Until we actually see true arctic air coming across the pole, nothing will change. I must sound like a broken record, but look at real time data, not the models, to get an idea of what is going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Dark Star said: 13 days out, little faith in the accuracy. Until we actually see true arctic air coming across the pole, nothing will change. I must sound like a broken record, but look at real time data, not the models, to get an idea of what is going on. My main concern is we lose the general more east trof post 1/15 if the MJO goes through the bad phases...but its possible we get lucky anyway if it traverses through there too weakly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I need to read it-- whats the title? I believe the Rising Sea, but don’t hold me to that. They all have plots that have to do with the water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: I believe the Rising Sea, but don’t hold me to that. They all have plots that have to do with the water. Sounds intriguing, especially if one of them has a plotline has something to do with undiscovered mysterious sea life at the sea floor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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