January 2024

[hudsonvalley21]

WPC still bullish with the QPF totals for the next 7days.

 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

WPC still bullish with the QPF totals for the next 7days.

 

Euro has been deadly accurate with that storm so far from 7-8 days out 

[Volcanic Winter]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We will get below 19 between the 15th and 18th imo 

Also hit 22 this AM, tied for my coldest of the season. This is basically my average low right now, and because we get so normalized to the increasing minimums it feels almost like anomalous cold. 

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has been deadly accurate with that storm so far from 7-8 days out 

Of course, it's a rain event lol  

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Of course, it's a rain event lol  

Easier to see shifts in the storm when you’re tracking the rain snow line over several dozen miles. Think about it, though I definitely understand the sentiment lol. 

[EastonSN+]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has gone beyond just simple El Niño and La Niña climatology. 

This snowless steak for NYC? I am not there now as in my lifetime other than this number of days without snow I have encountered 5 years with only one above average snowfall season streaks. Also the snowfall averages in the late 80s and especially the late 90s were lower than the last 5 years (late 90s was wayyy lower than the last 5 years). So while our snowfall averages will lower with time, I do not believe that this is our new normal/dramatic shift to "DC climo".

Decadal RNA cycle is keeping the trough to our west the majority of the time now. Also our CPK snowfall averages are inflated by decadal PNA cycles like 2000 through 2018. Other than those cycles our snowfall averages are pretty low (I believe 55 through 69 was a PNA cycle as well as we have a snow blitz then like 2000 through 2018).

However, it's cool that we disagree to an extent as discussions like this help us learn.

I would be more concerned if 21/22 did not happen lol.

[SACRUS]

 

Season low of 20 and now to 27. Wet period coming  up this weekend and gain Tue 3 - 5 inches of liquid.  West arctic blast next week with warmer east and that cold bleeds east l/17 - 1/21.

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

With respect Easton, there’s more to the area’s winter climatology than snowfall in a vacuum. Compare the temperature trends vs earlier snowless periods, we were likely colder and drier with less frequent, less amplified, and less juiced storms dropping less snow in general. It seems like the equation is different now with temperature becoming an increasingly large inhibitor to the area’s snowfall since 2016. Add back in any decadal variance such as pac cycles and IMHO that gives this the potential to be more severe than past droughts. 

Doesn’t mean there weren’t warm and wet low snow years back then either, of course those always existed. It’s more about frequency and intensity IMO. 

All IMHO. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This snowless steak for NYC? I am not there now as in my lifetime other than this number of days without snow I have encountered 5 years with only one above average snowfall season streaks. Also the snowfall averages in the late 80s and especially the late 90s were lower than the last 5 years (late 90s was wayyy lower than the last 5 years). So while our snowfall averages will lower with time, I do not believe that this is our new normal/dramatic shift to "DC climo".

Decadal RNA cycle is keeping the trough to our west the majority of the time now. Also our CPK snowfall averages are inflated by decadal PNA cycles like 2000 through 2018. Other than those cycles our snowfall averages are pretty low (I believe 55 through 69 was a PNA cycle as well as we have a snow blitz then like 2000 through 2018).

However, it's cool that we disagree to an extent as discussions like this help us learn.

 

I am mainly talking about the record WPAC warm pool leading to more frequent and intense MJO 4-7 intervals. This often results in a trough in the Western US. Then we get the warmer to record warmth here with a ridge over the area. We got lucky with the warmth from 2015 to 2018 in that we still had favorable patterns for snow. This shifted in 18-19 to where we are getting warmth and a general lack of snow. This is what we mean by a hostile Pacific pattern. The most recent low phase of snow which began in February 2022 is just an offshoot of this effect. So with a record 8 to going on 9 warm winters in a row it would figure than we would begin to see a decline in snowfall.  

[donsutherland1]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We will get below 19 between the 15th and 18th imo 

I don't know about the timing, as sometimes the guidance rushes things, but I am highly confident that we will get in the teens this winter (probably second half of this month).

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

I am mainly talking about the record WPAC warm pool leading to more frequent and intense MJO 4-7 intervals. This often results in a trough in the Western US. Then we get the warmer to record warmth here with a ridge over the area. We got lucky with the warmth from 2015 to 2018 in that we still got favorable patterns for snow. This shifted in 18-19 to where we are getting warmth and a general lack of snow. This is what we mean by a hostile Pacific pattern. The most recent low phase of snow which began in February 2022 is just an offshoot of this effect. So with a record 8 to going on 9 warm winters in a row it would figure than we would begin to see a decline in snowfall.  

What lead to the snowy 20-21 season and January 22? 

[psv88]

Low of 23 this morning, a few degrees above coldest for the season. Keep em dead!

[Allsnow]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I don't know about the timing, as sometimes the guidance rushes things, but I am highly confident that we will get in the teens this winter (probably second half of this month).

The cold will be out west but it should bleed over to east after the 15th. I agree, it shouldn’t be challenging to drop that low with the depicted pattern after mid month 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am mainly talking about the record WPAC warm pool leading to more frequent and intense MJO 4-7 intervals. This often results in a trough in the Western US. Then we get the warmer to record warmth here with a ridge over the area. We got lucky with the warmth from 2015 to 2018 in that we still had favorable patterns for snow. This shifted in 18-19 to where we are getting warmth and a general lack of snow. This is what we mean by a hostile Pacific pattern. The most recent low phase of snow which began in February 2022 is just an offshoot of this effect. So with a record 8 to going on 9 warm winters in a row it would figure than we would begin to see a decline in snowfall.  

Why can't it cool, or another area of the Pacific warm to offset? Or the western IO warm up faster to keep forcing there (MJO phases 1 and 2)?

We need more years/time to officially declare this as definitive going forward imo.

Again we can agree to disagree that's fine.

[Brian5671]

One benefit of the crappy pattern for us-the long term drought in the west has been eased somewhat by the trough out there and storms coming into the west coast-during the ridge years it was bone dry out there year after year

[Volcanic Winter]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Why can't it cool, or another area of the Pacific warm to offset? Or the western IO warm up faster to keep forcing there (MJO phases 1 and 2)?

We need more years/time to officially declare this as definitive going forward imo.

Again we can agree to disagree that's fine.

I do agree we need more time to evaluate, and I do think we sometimes draw conclusions prematurely without enough data to be more definitive. It’s difficult to separate changing climatology / warming (in a year to year sense I mean) from natural variance anyway, though I believe strongly this post 2016 period is offering clues. 

I do want to add that the majority of what Bluewave does is retrospective analysis without much long range forecasting. He’s not predicting so much as evaluating recent recurrent failure modes and recognizing similar warning signs in the short range. 

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One benefit of the crappy pattern for us-the long term drought in the west has been eased somewhat by the trough out there and storms coming into the west coast-during the ridge years it was bone dry out there year after year

Don’t forget the eastern drought has been alleviated as well

 

::checks notes::

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What lead to the snowy 20-21 season and January 22? 

In January 22 we got lucky and the MJO got stuck in phase 8. While the coastal areas did much bettter, the Pacific did relax for a whole month. But the more +AO favored Long Island for the heaviest snows. 20-21 is a different story. That October I posted in one of the threads how strong the MJO 4-6 was. For some reason,  we do bettter with snowfall in La Ninas that have a very strong MJO 4-6 in October than weaker ones. Seems like there is some type of fall modulation effect which alters the typical winter MJO 4-7 response. 

[MANDA]

Surprised not much talk (unless I missed it) of potential pending major Arctic dump into the western 1/3 of U.S. late next week.  Some amazing temperature departures loom and polar vortex potentially drops south over the general vicinity of the Rockies.  Subject to some change but could be bordering on historic cold for the Pacific NW on south.

 

Rain and wind event for our area (Tuesday/Wednesday) likely to produce moderate to major river flooding and power outages over large area of the Tri-State region.  Winds could be real deal even for inland areas this go round.

[jm1220]

Just now, MANDA said:

Surprised not much talk (unless I missed it) of potential pending major Arctic dump into the western 1/3 of U.S. late next week.  Some amazing temperature departures loom and polar vortex potentially drops south over the general vicinity of the Rockies.  Subject to some change but could be bordering on historic cold for the Pacific NW on south.

Because that area has been getting dumped with cold for the last 3-4 winters. It’s essentially a given. Amazing how that pattern persists even in this strong Nino. 

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I do agree we need more time to evaluate, and I do think we sometimes draw conclusions prematurely without enough data to be more definitive. It’s difficult to separate changing climatology / warming (in a year to year sense I mean) from natural variance anyway, though I believe strongly this post 2016 period is offering clues. 

I do want to add that the majority of what Bluewave does is retrospective analysis without much long range forecasting. He’s not predicting so much as evaluating recent recurrent failure modes and recognizing similar warning signs in the short range. 

Yeah Bluewave is great, and perhaps my views are skewed do to living through a period where CPKs annual snowfall average was 11.125 lol (late 90s) and late 80s. Approx 15.5. 

However my point is more that yes we are stuck in an MJO phase spread due to the ocean temps, however why CAN'T that change with time? Western IO temps are exploding so that would Favor phases 1 and 2! So we can move to another great period, especially with gulf stream temps adding fuel.

I will panic once it stops snowing in Norfolk Virginia/Delmarva lol.

DC is a bad comparison cause through history they are always too far north for southern sliderz and too far south for northern stream miller Bs. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Why can't it cool, or another area of the Pacific warm to offset? Or the western IO warm up faster to keep forcing there (MJO phases 1 and 2)?

We need more years/time to officially declare this as definitive going forward imo.

Again we can agree to disagree that's fine.

It’s one of the fastest warming ocean regions which leads to the stronger and more frequent MJO 4-7 phases. 
 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Surprised not much talk (unless I missed it) of potential pending major Arctic dump into the western 1/3 of U.S. late next week.  Some amazing temperature departures loom and polar vortex potentially drops south over the general vicinity of the Rockies.  Subject to some change but could be bordering on historic cold for the Pacific NW on south.

 

Rain and wind event for our area (Tuesday/Wednesday) likely to produce moderate to major river flooding and power outages over large area of the Tri-State region.  Winds could be real deal even for inland areas this go round.

But WHERE is the cold air coming from?  No arctic air in North America.  How quickly can the arctic air build and cross over from Norhter Europe to our area?

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

In January 22 we got lucky and the MJO got stuck in phase 8. While the coastal areas did much bettter, the Pacific did relax for a whole month. But the more +AO favored Long Island for the heaviest snows. 20-21 is a different story. That October I posted in one of the threads how strong the MJO 4-6 was. For some reason,  we do bettter with snowfall in La Ninas that have a very strong MJO 4-6 in October than weaker ones. Seems like there is some type of fall modulation effect which alters the typical winter MJO 4-7 response. 

With Nina on the horizon for next winter that will be something to monitor in October. Thanks for the information 

[MANDA]

43 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

But WHERE is the cold air coming from?  No arctic air in North America.  How quickly can the arctic air build and cross over from Norhter Europe to our area?

Currently -30 to -40 over Northern Canada.  Get the right pattern for a quick and direct discharge and it will come rushing south.  Animate the 00Z Euro tropopause parameter.

[Dark Star]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Currently -30 to -40 over Northern Canada.  Get the right pattern for a quick and direct discharge and it will come rushing south.  Animate the 00Z Euro tropopause parameter.

I know yesterday, the band of -30 was quite small, so I am not hopeful.  

[Allsnow]

Only 35 currently at 1230pm chilly day 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s one of the fastest warming ocean regions which leads to the stronger and more frequent MJO 4-7 phases. 
 

That's true, but do we know why that area is warming faster, and why the western IO cannot overtake it in warmth? My point just being it can change like when the warm blob off the northwest was there then cycles away. For now, we have to deal with that area but could theoretically change 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's true, but do we know why that area is warming faster, and why the western IO cannot overtake it in warmth? My point just being it can change like when the warm blob off the northwest was there then cycles away. For now, we have to deal with that area but could theoretically change 

The rapid warming in the Tropical WPAC is part of a longer term trend. We don’t have good enough regional climate models yet to whether other areas of the tropical oceans  will gradually overtake that one. So it’s an important question to ask. The blob off the PAC NW coast was more of a secondary effect from forcing in the WPAC that may have originated around 15N east of the Philippines. The SSTs in that part of the NE PAC are much colder. So while they can enhance a pattern already in place, they weren’t the main driver. 

[MJO812]

Geps and gefs are really cold as we head deeper into January .