January 2024

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Is there a quick guide on what the MJO stages imply? Thanks.


.

Generally in winter 8-1-2 are the best.   4-5-6 are terrible

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 3 is 

 

It is, so before we enter p4 we should see a improvement out west 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

It is, so before we enter p4 we should see a improvement out west 

Yep looking at the charts this morning we should get into a favorable period until it hits 4. 

[psv88]

23 this morning, lots of frost

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Generally in winter 8-1-2 are the best.   4-5-6 are terrible

Not terrible in Nino Jan for 5-6 

[binbisso]

Wow at the cmc for the 10th. Gfs also. 

[binbisso]

Big hp in Eastern Canada.  Those are hard to move in January 

[binbisso]

For the tenth we need that trailing s/w on the 7th to amplify as it moves towards the Canadian maritime. Set up a nice 50/50 low

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Big hp in Eastern Canada.  Those are hard to move in January 

Lots of highs in southeast Canada will try to keep us cold for most of these storms. Anything amped up will go west of us. I bit more of a ridge on the gfs at the end of the run out west 

[binbisso]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of highs in southeast Canada will try to keep us cold for most of these storms. Anything amped up will go west of us. I bit more of a ridge on the gfs at the end of the run out west 

Yup. Gfs has another one on the 15th. 

[binbisso]

Man you have to love el-nino. What an active pattern.  We should have plenty of chances the next two weeks. Maybe we fail but fun to track 

[Allsnow]

 

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Man you have to love el-nino. What an active pattern.  We should have plenty of chances the next two weeks. Maybe we fail but fun to track 

Wild for sure-continuation of the 2nd half of 2023 very wet pattern

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

Dude, you could bring your wife to tears on your honeymoon....holy shit lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

@snowman19"You're gonna need a bigger weenie"

https://www.google.com/search?q=you're+gonna+need+a+bigger+boat&sca_esv=595369570&sxsrf=AM9HkKkPKzgAEeM0xOrwPVp14tCoi0FRoA%3A1704305114258&source=hp&ei=2qGVZcitDKPtptQPlY21uAQ&iflsig=AO6bgOgAAAAAZZWv6gzjWdBDAnlD0voGcW-D2u7A0Db2&oq=your+gonna+need&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6Ig95b3VyIGdvbm5hIG5lZWQqAggAMgcQABiABBgKMgUQLhiABDIHEC4YgAQYCjIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgcQABiABBgKMgcQLhiABBgKMgUQABiABDIHEAAYgAQYCjIHEAAYgAQYCkj3IFAAWJIUcAB4AJABAJgBbaABlQmqAQQxNC4xuAEByAEA-AEBwgIKECMYgAQYigUYJ8ICChAuGIAEGIoFGCfCAhEQLhiDARjHARixAxjRAxiABMICERAuGIAEGLEDGIMBGMcBGNEDwgILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwHCAggQABiABBixA8ICCxAuGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIWEC4YgAQYsQMYgwEYsQMYxwEY0QMYCsICChAAGIAEGLEDGArCAg0QABiABBixAxiDARgKwgILEC4YgAQYxwEY0QPCAgsQLhiDARixAxiABMICBBAAGAPCAggQLhiABBixA8ICCBAuGIAEGNQC&sclient=gws-wiz#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:b3767ab9,vid:2I91DJZKRxs,st:0

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, you could bring your wife to tears on your honeymoon....holy shit lol

Haha

-pna and models running warm no chance at snow until the magical pna in February for nyc 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Getting better and better. Looks like southern vermont is gonna get destroyed. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, you could bring your wife to tears on your honeymoon....holy shit lol

The only tears experienced from a weather event was missing the Nemo jackpot zone of 6”+ an hour and 50 DBZ radar reflectivities leading to 30-40” in CT.  All this weather forecasting and analysis stuff is purely technical with no emotions involved. I save the emotions for the actual event. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only tears experienced from a weather event was missing the Nemo jackpot zone of 6”+ an hour and 50 DBZ radar reflectivities leading to 30-40” in CT.  All this weather forecasting and analysis stuff is purely technical with no emotions involved. I save the emotions for the actual event. 

January 2016 was better though it was a bonafide Cat 5 storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only tears experienced from a weather event was missing the Nemo jackpot zone of 6”+ an hour and 50 DBZ radar reflectivities leading to 30-40” in CT.  All this weather forecasting and analysis stuff is purely technical with no emotions involved. I save the emotions for the actual event. 

How far was that from you and how much did you get?

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How far was that from you and how much did you get?

I was in SW Nassau back on LI not far from JFK and only picked up 9”. That storm probably had the greatest rates under that epic 50 DBZ band of any snowstorm in the modern doppler radar era. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

Abstract

On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h⁻¹. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors Z_H near the surface.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I was in SW Nassau back on LI not far from JFK and only picked up 9”. That storm probably had the greatest rates under that epic 50 DBZ band of any snowstorm in the modern doppler radar era. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

Abstract

On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h⁻¹. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors Z_H near the surface.

Chris, it was basically a glorified lake effect belt kind of storm.  Outside of a very narrow area, no one got exceptionally high snowfall in that storm and it didn't make it anywhere near the top of the NESIS list.

 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, it was basically a glorified lake effect belt kind of storm.  Outside of a very narrow area, no one got exceptionally high snowfall in that storm and it didn't make it anywhere near the top of the NESIS list.

 

NESIS is a nice metric to have.  But I am also focused on which storms produce the the most intense snowstorm at their core. Nemo would be my top pick for best snowfall rates in modern times. Give me just one of these each winter and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.
 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NESIS is a nice metric to have.  But I am also focused on which storms produce the the most intense snowstorm at their core. Nemo would be my top pick for best snowfall rates in modern times. Give me just one of these each winter and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.
 

 

Would you say this was the modern day version of the Blizzard of 1888 but further east?

We got a mix of rain and snow here which is weird with heavy snow to the east-- you'd expect the heavy snow to be to the west if it was not all snow here.

 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Would you say this was the modern day version of the Blizzard of 1888 but further east?

We got a mix of rain and snow here which is weird with heavy snow to the east-- you'd expect the heavy snow to be to the west if it was not all snow here.

 

I believe 1888 made a loop at the Benchmark which prolonged the the heaviest rates. Much higher ratios with that event since it was so cold. But we will never know for sure since it was before the radar era. 

[donsutherland1]

Generally cool, dry weather will continue through the remainder of the week. A few locations could see a rain or snow shower tomorrow morning. Overall, the first week of January remains in line for somewhat above normal temperatures.

A storm could bring measurable snowfall to parts of the region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. There are currently two leading scenarios. The first involves significant snow (6" or more) falling well north and west of an area that includes Philadelphia and New York City. The second involves significant snowfall extending south and east into the area that includes New York City and Philadelphia. The first scenario is currently more likely than the second. The probability of such an outcome has increased over the past 24 hours. Details remain to be worked out. However, this appears to be the kind of storm that could bring a general 1" to perhaps 3" of slushy snow to New York City (lowest amounts in Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island and highest amounts in the Bronx) with 3"-6" of snow well north and west of New York City.

Afterward, a major storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Temperatures could surge toward or into the 50s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing.

The SOI was +0.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.127 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On January 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.959 (RMM). The December 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.894 (RMM).

 

[wdrag]

You're welcome to chatter here about he 10th, but for sure after the 7th all that belongs in the current two storm thread.

I have no plans to start a snow thread for the 13th-15th, until the 10th when we are solely posting damage combo 3" water equivalent snowmelt-rainfall/wind reports in the obs thread for the 9th-10th,  that one I'll start the morning of the 9th.

For now I'm now seldom commenting on modeling for both these next two storms in the primary 6-7 9-10 thread. 

[Allsnow]

Weeklies running to warm this month 

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

NESIS is a nice metric to have.  But I am also focused on which storms produce the the most intense snowstorm at their core. Nemo would be my top pick for best snowfall rates in modern times. Give me just one of these each winter and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.
 

 

Being under that band from around 5pm was sheer madness.  There wasn't much wind yet, just suffocating snow.

[psv88]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I was in SW Nassau back on LI not far from JFK and only picked up 9”. That storm probably had the greatest rates under that epic 50 DBZ band of any snowstorm in the modern doppler radar era. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

Abstract

On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h⁻¹. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors Z_H near the surface.

I was living in North central Nassau county for NEMO and we got 13”. Not bad but not the shellacking that central Suffolk got.