Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS and geps continue to show a very impressive pattern 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 @Bluewave Here comes the next jet extension just after mid-month 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: Wow! Although kind of shocked that 1984 was the coldest! Would have thought it would have deteriorated YOY since 1950 since we have been warming steadily since before 1950. Could something else have driven the 1984 record? I think one of the METS stated that a way to increase the cold pool is to have a strong of years where the Polar Vortex is consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow! Although kind of shocked that 1984 was the coldest! Would have thought it would have deteriorated YOY since 1950 since we have been warming steadily since before 1950. Could something else have driven the 1984 record? I think one of the METS stated that a way to increase the cold pool is to have a strong of years where the Polar Vortex is consolidated. That historic January Arctic outbreak produced the all-time 2nd coldest temperature on record at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1933-1934 -14 0 2 1984-1985 -8 0 3 1981-1982 -7 0 - 1942-1943 -7 0 4 1935-1936 -4 0 - 1934-1935 -4 0 5 1993-1994 -2 0 - 1976-1977 -2 0 - 1962-1963 -2 0 - 1960-1961 -2 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Cool, dry weather will continue through the remainder of the week. A few locations could see a rain or snow shower on Thursday morning. Overall, the first week of January remains in line for near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures. That is quite a contrast from the much greater warmth that had prevailed through most of December. A storm could bring measurable snowfall to the region during January 7-8. There are currently two leading scenarios. The first involves significant snow (6" or more) falling well north and west of an area that includes Philadelphia and New York City. The second involves significant snowfall extending south and east into the area that includes New York City and Philadelphia. The first scenario is currently more likely than the second. Nevertheless, details remain to be worked out. Afterward, a major storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Temperatures could surge toward or into the 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +0.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.468 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On December 31 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.894 (RMM). The December 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.047 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 31 pages on 1/2. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 What a block on the long range gfs after the cutter. That's when true winter should begin. It's on all the models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Huge storm potential this month if the block forns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: What a block on the long range gfs after the cutter. That's when true winter should begin. It's on all the models. Gefs just caved to the eps tonight with the better look out west with the -nao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm not a fan of this pattern. You still have very deep troughing out west which can easily overwhelm any -NAO/AO pattern. I think it's a waiting game until February when Pacific improves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not a fan of this pattern. You still have very deep troughing out west which can easily overwhelm any -NAO/AO pattern. I think it's a waiting game until February when Pacific improves. Why wait until February? PAC improvements by the 14th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Allsnow said: Why wait until February? PAC improvements by the 14th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Forecast looks great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The 0z EPS has a stronger trough in the West now so it has a warmer pattern for our area. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's just no good right now. It doesn't take much to correct warmer for us. 0z EPS did that already. There's just too much troughiness out west. Some people never learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's just no good right now. It doesn't take much to correct warmer for us. 0z EPS did that already. There's just too much troughiness out west. Some people never learn. same thing every year-same variations of the same posts 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 29 last night up to 30 3 more partly - mostly sunny dry days ahead of the weekend system, which will be followed by the Tue - Wed system which will be a rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Records: Highs: EWR: 65 (2000) NYC: 64 (2000) LGA: 63 (2000) Lows: EWR: 8 (2014) 9 years ago freeze NYC: -4 (1879) LGA: 10 (2014) Historical: 1777 - An overnight freeze enabled George Washington and his troops to flank the British at Trenton, cross their lines at Princeton, and seek security in the hills of northern New Jersey. (David Ludlum) 1824: The oldest known weather information in Oklahoma begins on this today at Fort Gibson in 1824. Now known as Muskogee County. 1883: A remarkably brilliant meteor display occurred on the night of January 3rd. The phenomenon was observed at stations in Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This meteor was described as having resembled a large, bright ball of fire. 1886: A severe ice storm struck portions of northeastern Iowa when heavy accumulations of freezing rain brought down trees and branches across the area. An observer near Garnavillo in Clayton County wrote that "the rain...mostly froze as it fell, and coated twigs of trees with ice an inch thick, and many trees were seriously broken. Our telephone wires were broken in many places. Large old trees and large limbs broken. In the woods, many trees bent their tops, so the ground and the roads were impassible until the treetops were cut off." In Fayette County, it was reported that "ice formed on the trees so thick that many limbs, from four to eight inches through, were broken and the tops of the trees, thirty feet high, rested on the ground in many instances blockading the roads." An observer at Waukon noted that "ice formed on the trees to such an extent that in very many cases our shade trees were ruined. All afternoon and night, it was a continual crash." 1961 - A three day long icestorm was in progress over northern Idaho which produced an accumulation of ice eight inches thick, a U.S. record. Heavy fog, which blanketed much of northern Idaho from Grangeville to the Canadian border, deposited the ice on power and phone lines causing widespread power outages. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A powerful Pacific coast storm blasted the western U.S. with high winds, heavy rain and heavy snow. Winds gusted to 96 mph at Cape Blanco OR, and snowfall totals reached 20 inches in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - After a day of rest, "Old Man Winter" came back as a triple threat, hitting both coasts with winter storms, and blasting the central U.S. with cold arctic air. Snow and ice in the eastern U.S. caused 4.5 million dollars damage to homes and vehicles in North Carolina, the storm in the western U.S. produced two feet of snow in the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada, and temperatures in North Dakota plunged to 30 degrees below zero, with wind chill readings as cold as 95 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S., and five more in Washington and Oregon, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 78 degrees at Galveston TX and 82 degrees at Lake Charles LA were records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) 1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. spread snow across Colorado and New Mexico. Heavy snow fell in southwestern Colorado, with 13 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. Snow spread into the Central Plains Region during the day, with six inches reported at Garden City KS. (National Weather Summary) 1994 - A heavy wet snow blanketed much of the state of Ohio, with 12 to 18 inches reported in counties along the Ohio River. Newport received 21 inches. Thunder and lightning accompanied the snow, with five inches reported in Washington County and Noble County between 7 AM and 8 AM Tuesday. Parts of Washington County were without electricity for eight days following the storm.(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2000: Two F3 tornadoes struck northwest Kentucky late in the afternoon of January 3. Owensboro, Kentucky, sustained the most severe damage and the highest number of injuries. 2018: The first time in 28 years, light snowfalls in Tallahassee, Florida. The NWS Office in Tallahassee measured 0.1" of snow/sleet at 8:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Assuming we had an inversion overnight because it smelled like a racetrack this morning. Low was 24 with heavy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's just no good right now. It doesn't take much to correct warmer for us. 0z EPS did that already. There's just too much troughiness out west. Some people never learn. Good luck with your backloaded Nino call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 same thing every year-same variations of the same postsI admittedly do not know how to read models with the other things that interact with them to make a forecast, buuuuut…We go through the same stages *every* storm. It reads like a mad libs script. Every. Single. Time.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 EPS coming around to the GEFS idea of a stronger MJO 4 as it struggles with the barrier effect when dealing with convection near the Maritime Continent. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's just no good right now. It doesn't take much to correct warmer for us. 0z EPS did that already. There's just too much troughiness out west. Some people never learn. The change comes after the cutter next week. There is alot of blocking on every model. Phase 3 is good but 4 isn't so we shall see where we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: The change comes after the cutter next week. There is alot of blocking on every model. Things can change but the pattern looks great for sustained winter. Mjo also looks favorable Phase 4 is favorable? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Phase 4 is favorable? LOLIs there a quick guide on what the MJO stages imply? Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Phase 4 is favorable? LOL Phase 3 is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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