Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Still would rather be in New England though. Not a fan of that Pacific pattern Okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snow showers on thursday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, Nibor said: why you gotta make me sad I didn’t mean to make you sad. It just seems like 2010 to 2018 was the peak snowfall period for our area. But as we saw in 20-21 and Jan 22, we need the Pacific to relax if we want to see memorable snowstorms. My only regret from the 2010-2018 period was missing the Nemo 50 DBZ jackpot zone with 30”-40” and 6-8” per hour rates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The GEFS has stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent than the GEPS. So that’s probably why it has a more pronounced -PNA. If we assume EPS too weak GEFS too strong but also too slow as its been recently we probably can blend the ensembles and it'l be less ridgy in the east. I guess its a question does the wave die before it really gets to 6. Ideally we probably want it to because if we have to survive even a weak push through 5-6 that takes us to 1/20 probably. I think there is a better chance of a +PNA late month if the wave dies in 5 or early in 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 hours ago, bluewave said: I didn’t mean to make you sad. It just seems like 2010 to 2018 was the peak snowfall period for our area. But as we saw in 20-21 and Jan 22, we need the Pacific to relax if we want to see memorable snowstorms. My only regret from the 2010-2018 period was missing the Nemo 50 DBZ jackpot zone with 30”-40” and 6-8” per hour rates. All good homie. Just messing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GFS remains relatively consistent at 00z and 06z. Consistency doesn’t mean accuracy but nice to see a storm several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Down to 37 now to 39 again mostly cloudy but some breaks in the clouds. Happy New Year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Records: Highs: EWR: 65 (1973) NYC: 62 (1966) LGA: 60 (2019) Lows: EWR: 6 (2018) NYC: -4 (1918) LGA: 8 (2018) Historical: 1767: The morning temperature in Boston was -8°F. 1864 - Snow, gales and severe cold hit the Midwest. It was the most bitter cold New Year's day of record with afternoon highs of 16 below zero at Chicago IL and 25 below at Minneapolis MN. (David Ludlum) 1864: A historic cold blast of air charged southeast from the Northern Plains to Ohio Valley. Chicago had a high temperature of -16°. A farmer near Huntertown, Indiana, reported the same high temperature as Chicago, with a low of 21 degrees below zero. He remarked "rough day" in his weather diary. Minneapolis had a temperature of 25 degrees below zero at 2 PM. St. Louis, Missouri, saw an overnight low of 24 degrees below zero. The Mississippi was frozen solid with people able to cross it. 1888: The Signal Corps office opened in Rapid City, South Dakota, on January 1, 1888. It was located in the Sweeney Building at the corner of 7th and Main Streets. The high and low temperature that day was 6 and -17°F. 1892: At Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, dandelions were in bloom in parks. 1934 - Heavy rain which began on December 30th led to flooding in the Los Angeles Basin area of California. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 45 persons. Walls of water and debris up to ten feet high were noted in some canyon areas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 16.29 inches at Azusa, with 8.26 inches reported in Downtown Los Angeles. (The Weather Channel) 1935: The Associated Press Wire Photo Service made its debut, delivering the great weather maps twice each day to newspapers across the country. The first photo transmitted was a plane crash in the Adirondack of New York on this day. The plane crashed during the evening hours on December 28, but the rescue did not occur until New Year's Day. 1949 - A six day blizzard began over the Northern Rockies and the Great Plains. The storm produced the most adverse weather conditions in the history of the west. (David Ludlum) 1961: A three-day-long ice storm was beginning over northern Idaho, which produced an accumulation of ice eight inches thick, a U.S. record. Dense fog, which blanketed much of northern Idaho from Grangeville to the Canadian border, deposited the ice on power and phone lines, causing widespread power outages. 1964: A snowstorm struck the Deep South on December 31st, 1963, through January 1st, 1964. Meridian MS received 15 inches of snow, 10.5 inches blanketed Bay St Louis MS, and 4.5 inches fell at New Orleans, LA. The University of Alabama Head Football Coach “Bear” Bryant said that the only thing that could have messed up his team’s chances in the Sugar Bowl against Ole Miss in New Orleans, LA was a freak snowstorm. Well, much to his chagrin, 4.5 inches of snow fell the night before the big game. Alabama won the game 12-7 anyway. Freezing temperatures then prevailed for New Year’s Day. 1979 - The temperature at Maybell CO plunged to 60 degrees below zero to tie the state record set back in 1951 at Taylor Park. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm brought rain and snow and high winds to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The storm, which occurred in a period of unusually high astronomical tides, produced a tide of 9.4 feet at Myrtle Beach SC (their highest since Hurricane Hazel in 1954) which caused a total of 25 million dollars damage in South Carolina. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. The morning low of 31 degrees below zero at Alamosa CO was a record for the date. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced 17 inches of snow at Elmira NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Those who woke up New Year's morning unable to see much farther than the end of their nose had a good excuse, at least in the central U.S., as dense fog prevailed from Texas to Wisconsin. (National Weather Summary) 1990 - The new year and decade began on a rather peaceful note. Snow was primarily confined to the Great Lakes Region, the Upper Ohio Valley, and the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Subzero temperature readings were confined to Minnesota and North Dakota. (National Weather Summary) 1994 - Strong winds along the eastern slopes of the Central Rockies gusted to 70 mph at Arlington WY, and gusted to 80 mph near Estes Park CO. Heavy snow in the northeast mountains of Oregon produced 14 inches at Tollgate. A series of storms the first three days of the year produced 20 inches of snow at Lowman, in the west central mountains of Idaho. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1997 - Heavy precipitation fell from December 26, 1996 to January 3, 1997 in much of the west. In the California Sierra Nevadas the Truckee River reached its highest level on record. Lake Tahoe reached its highest level since 1917. Sacramento was spared the worst of the flooding by a system of levees, although many nearby towns were not so fortunate. Numerous levee breaches and breaks occurred across the state. Approximately 16,000 residences were damaged or destroyed. State officials estimated at least $1.6 billion in damages to private and public property. 1999 - A major blizzard struck portions of the Midwest on January 1-3, 1999. The storm produced 22 inches of snow in Chicago and was rated by the NWS as the second worst blizzard of the 20th century, ranking behind the blizzard in January 1967. Estimates of losses and recovery costs are between $0.3 and $0.4 billion with 73 dead as a result of the blizzard. (NCDC) 2011: Southern and central Mississippi saw 11 tornadoes during the night of December 31st into the morning hours of January 1st. Of the 11, two were EF-3 with two more EF-2. Six were EF-1 with one EF-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Even with our recent mild and snowless winter we have found a way to stay mostly off this list. Which is surprising to me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Light snow last night on the drive home. Car tops and roof tops dusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Even with our recent mild and snowless winter we have found a way to stay mostly off this list. Which is surprising to me The one interesting stat is that NYC avoided a complete shut out even with all the winter months in the calendar year over 40°. So in a much warmer future climate, the chances of not recording at least a T are probably pretty slim. But it does raise the prospect that some day we may see a season or calendar year under 1”. Just hopefully no time soon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 @bluewave It seems like there we are / will be losing snow events when teleconnection spreads are imperfect but should be workable, and an increased reliance on something like a strong -EPO to bring in the cold. It seems like even the -AO/-NAO can’t do much to offset a warm Pac configuration (aside from preventing an even greater warm anomaly), and that will only worsen over time. Focused on the lower M/A, last year PSUHoff had a nice series of posts showing how decades ago during the last -PDO cycle favorable Atlantic telecons were better able to offset an unfavorable Pacific and produce snow, which I thought was very interesting. Looking at the 2000’s and 2010’s, we seemed locked into extremely good patterns with lots of Pac and Atl cooperation. So it does sort of seem “loaded” against us while we’ve been in a period of poor Pac telecons on top of a warming spike. Some of that is coming from the frequent episodes of Pac air sourcing, but some of it is just the general background warming I would think. Looking at Jan 22 that was fairly cold but had a long -EPO IIRC? I know you (Bluewave) spoke about that month recently when I mentioned it before. Just musing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Once again GEFS looks horrible LR with a deep west coast trough. EPS looks amazing. Canadian kind of in the middle and odd, perhaps due to model spread. Looking at the MJO progression would think the GEFS is more correct. However, that could lead to another good window in February as the MJO circles around. If we can get a moderate event on the next storm, CPK has a decent shot at reaching average snowfall (if GEFS is correct). All in all I think the models are just handling the MJO wave speed differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Once again GEFS looks horrible LR with a deep west coast trough. EPS looks amazing. Canadian kind of in the middle and odd, perhaps due to model spread. Looking at the MJO progression would think the GEFS is more correct. However, that could lead to another good window in February as the MJO circles around. If we can get a moderate event on the next storm, CPK has a decent shot at reaching average snowfall (if GEFS is correct). All in all I think the models are just handling the MJO wave speed differently. Gefs ext finally show the end of the month pattern flip like the weeklies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Huge west based -nao on today eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Allsnow said: Huge west based -nao on today eps KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane Is their analog storm or pattern showing up for later January? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane Post the image you posted in the MA forum before the pac crew gets here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Allsnow said: Post the image you posted in the MA forum before the pac crew gets here can you even draw it up better? huge WB -NAO, -EPO, elongated TPV over SE Canada and mean trough over the Lakes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: can you even draw it up better? huge WB -NAO, -EPO, elongated TPV over SE Canada and mean trough over the Lakes Yeah, that’s definitely not a look where the -pna is being smoothed out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Allsnow said: Yeah, that’s definitely not a look where the -pna is being smoothed out polar opposite of last December's block. the Pacific is a lot more favorable. thanks El Nino! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: polar opposite of last December's block. the Pacific is a lot more favorable. thanks El Nino! Yeah, the reason we lost our on last March, last December and two Decembers ago was a trough down to Baja. Night and day. I really want to see the GEFS and GEPS get onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah, the reason we lost our on last March, last December and two Decembers ago was a trough down to Baja. Night and day. I really want to see the GEFS and GEPS get onboard. the GEPS is pretty close. the GEFS might take a while. its progressive bias likely hurts it given that the -NAO is formed due to a wave breaking event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: Even with our recent mild and snowless winter we have found a way to stay mostly off this list. Which is surprising to me Still managed 4 of the top ten in the last 27 years. Considering there’s 155 years of records, that’s a fair amount for that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: That -NAO signal looks legit. But quite the MJO model war between the GEFS and EPS. The GEFS drags its feet through the warmer phases and gets over to an amplified 4 which is warm. Strong lingering P2 is initially with deep trough out West. Some p3 trying to filter in, but quickly moves over to 4. EPS is the opposite and dampens signal in 3 so jumps on -EPO improving PNA train. While I normally don’t lean on the the RMM charts, this is as stark a difference I have seen between GEFS and EPS running through the IO. It’s why the GEFS holds the trough so long out West. Very volatile pattern to say the least. The olr maps have dry air in the 4-7, so the signal at the very least might be weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 As has become increasingly common in recent years, the New Year begins with a range of flowers in bloom in the NYC area. Cherry blossoms are in bloom in Central Park. Camelia, Mahonia, and Witch Hazel are in bloom in the New York Botanical Garden. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Feeling that this January so far is setting up as expected. You've got a chance on the 7th, but need a few things to go right to make it happen. Don't like the 10th at all. Do like MLK period/week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2024 kicked off with benign weather. The temperature rose into the middle 40s as the clouds broke for a time. The first week of January will likely feature generally near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures. Severe cold is unlikely. Some snow flurries and snow showers are possible Thursday morning. There is the possibility that a significant storm could bring measurable snowfall to the region during January 7-8. Details remain to be worked out. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.98°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was -2.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.779 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On December 30 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.047 (RMM). The December 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.993 (RMM). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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