winterwx21 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Good to see the Euro trend colder and put us near edge here, but 6 days to go is a very long time considering the accuracy of models at this range. Who knows at this point, but at least it looks like our first legitimate threat. Anyway I say it's time to take a break from the models for a little while and enjoy the holiday weekend. I hope everyone has a great New Year's Eve and New Year's day. Another great food holiday. Football today, but I also love watching The Twilght Zone Marathon. That has become a big New Year's tradition. Happy New Year! Hopefully after the holiday this winter storm threat for next weekend will look better as we get to a more realistic range midweek. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I'd say that's mild lol. Just not all time warm. Again, I'm aware that winters have warmed more on the East Coast than the southern lakes. But I was merely pointing out that 1950s winters were anemic in most areas in the northeastern third of the country. Even the most anemic winters of the 1950s finished with around 10” of snow or higher and we had 2 years under 5” since 19-20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 EPS snow mean for the country out until the 10th Winter is coming 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS snow mean for the country out until the 10th Winter is coming At the very least ski country can benefit a lot. Hopefully most or all of this sub forum as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Even the most anemic winters of the 1950s finished with over 10” of snow and we had 2 years under 5” since 19-20. True. I know you guys have said you tend to be even more feast-or-famine lately. Here where it's more "steady" snowfall, averages took a noticeable dip from the 1930s through the 50s. There were also several winters that finished under 20", something that has not happened in 55 years. Again not trying to go anywhere with this, just saying that as much as many long for winters of the 70s, they should despise winters of the 50s lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Real interesting battle with the ensembles for mid month. Both the eps/geps improve the pna while the gefs get worst. If we make it into p3 of the mjo the better pna makes sense to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even the most anemic winters of the 1950s finished with around 10” of snow or higher and we had 2 years under 5” since 19-20. The last 4 winters averaged 15.9 inches as CPK. Not good but far better than the 11.125 average from 96/97 through 99/00. 85/86 through 89/89 was close with 15.825 so perhaps a good comparison so far. Agreed 2 under 5 so close together is new, however too early to tell if it's an anamoly or a trend. Let's see what the next few years bring. A lot will depend on how strong the la Nina is next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Real interesting battle with the ensembles for mid month. Both the eps/geps improve the pna while the gefs get worst. If we make it into p3 of the mjo the better pna makes sense to me Yeah. If we can score during this period before the relaxation, then we have a good shot at average snowfall when we get back to the good MJO phases again. If this was just a moderate El nino this winter could have been a great one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: True. I know you guys have said you tend to be even more feast-or-famine lately. Here where it's more "steady" snowfall, averages took a noticeable dip from the 1930s through the 50s. There were also several winters that finished under 20", something that has not happened in 55 years. Again not trying to go anywhere with this, just saying that as much as many long for winters of the 70s, they should despise winters of the 50s lol. Here is the history for central park. https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:ae0895db-7e85-4c6a-84ea-43574ecab760 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Even if we miss this storm good snowcover to our north will help with future cold air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Snow mean on the eps is 7 inches for nyc in the next two weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snow mean on the eps is 7 inches for nyc in the next two weeks Very nice pattern on the eps. No shortage of storms also. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Very nice pattern on the eps. No shortage of storms also. Yep. I think we score a few inches to break the streak 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yep. I think we score a few inches to break the streak Even an inch would be great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The EPS ensembles have "discovered" the potential January 7-8, 2024 storm. But there remains considerable uncertainty with a risk that a Pacific trough could result in the storm's taking a track too far to the north and west to bring a moderate or significant snowfall to big cities from Philadelphia to New York City. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: True. I know you guys have said you tend to be even more feast-or-famine lately. Here where it's more "steady" snowfall, averages took a noticeable dip from the 1930s through the 50s. There were also several winters that finished under 20", something that has not happened in 55 years. Again not trying to go anywhere with this, just saying that as much as many long for winters of the 70s, they should despise winters of the 50s lol. Yeah, Long Island has been in all or nothing snowfall mode since the early 90s. From the 60s to early 90s average seasons dominated. My guess is that the heightened volatility since the early 90s is related to the warming. At some point going forward the increasing warmth will probably give us a snowfall average closer to the Delmarva and Southern NJ. The good news for the Great Lakes region is that warmer waters and less ice should lead to increases in lake effect snows at several locations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, Long Island has been in all or nothing snowfall mode since the early 90s. From the 60s to early 90s average seasons dominated. My guess is that the heightened volatility since the early 90s is related to the warming. At some point going forward the increasing warmth will probably give us a snowfall average closer to the Delmarva and Southern NJ. The good news for the Great Lakes region is that warmer waters and less ice should lead to increases in lake effect snows at several locations. We got so spoiled here on LI generally from 2002-2023 in my opinion. Lots of big boys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Very happy many of you will hopefully see something out of this. I’m probably screwed here for now, need more cold or a less amped solution like those runs earlier that showed a big hit here. Regardless, positives overall considering the alternative and hopefully the start of some improvements. Hopefully I’ll catch some snow at work (should these actually work out, fingers crossed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Pretty stark differences between the GEPS and GEFS at the end of their runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Pretty stark differences between the GEPS and GEFS at the end of their runs. Gefs might be wrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Pretty stark differences between the GEPS and GEFS at the end of their runs. The GEFS has stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent than the GEPS. So that’s probably why it has a more pronounced -PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GEFS has stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent than the GEPS. So that’s probably why it has a more pronounced -PNA. EPS/geps vs the gefs in that timeframe currently. Gefs might be wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The missus when I tell her I’m reading weather boards: https://x.com/NFLonFOX/status/1741559640003903742?s=20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: the high to the north is a plus at least. maybe we can get a few inches before a changeover i guess Wouldn't that storm crashing into the SW help kick our storm east before it can get too much latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: Yeah somewhere across the MS Valley would be ideal. You'd want to give the storm enough room to cut northeast too without swinging and missing. It's a delicate balancing act. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: We got so spoiled here on LI generally from 2002-2023 in my opinion. Lots of big boys. Almost like a grand finale at the end of a fireworks show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Almost like a grand finale at the end of a fireworks show. why you gotta make me sad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Nibor said: why you gotta make me sad I don't think he meant the grand finale forever, more the finale of that incredible 2000 through 2018 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Snow showers on thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Snow mean on the eps is 7 inches for nyc in the next two weeks Still would rather be in New England though. Not a fan of that Pacific pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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