January 2024

[forkyfork]

18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i hate this look in the west sry

the high to the north is a plus at least. maybe we can get a few inches before a changeover i guess

[IrishRob17]

Walt started a thread for the threat: 

 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the high to the north is a plus at least. maybe we can get a few inches before a changeover i guess

If that feature is real and gets stronger I have the same thoughts about this system 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If that feature is real and gets stronger I have the same thoughts about this system 

storms like march 2017 and dec 2020 should stay in everyone's heads as reminders about what can happen to great looks at 48 hours

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’s a threat in the board-saying again. But I’d rather be on the northern edge of the snow hoping for a north trend to get in the game vs right on the R/S line at this point. We’ve seen over and over what normally happens with these as get closer to game time. I’d say we need the 1/4 event to be stronger so it can form a 50/50 and block the 1/7 event from trying to cut or hug the coast. Any stronger storm without a block to force it south will try to cut north and pump the SE ridge ahead of it. 

As WX/PT said in the December thread, it's a real thread the needle situation. Right now I would lean towards mostly rain, but at least we have a shot. Nice to have something to track. 

[Allsnow]

Snow globe game in Chicago today..

[Allsnow]

Euro wed night 

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

But even during that stretch NYC didn’t have the challenge of getting an inch or two of snow like today since it was much cooler back then.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 2 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	699	2023-12-29
2	685	1974-01-08
3	521	1919-09-15
4	416	1914-02-13
5	406	1998-03-21
6	386	1992-03-18
-	386	1955-02-01
8	385	1932-12-16
9	377	1972-02-05
10	366	2007-02-13
11	365	1986-02-06

Actually, the 1950s had very mild winters overall. The 6 years from 1948-49 to 1953-54 were milder than even the current normals for NYC, and the 1950s were also NYC least snowiest decade on record (as well as "barest" decade of snowcover). The difference in winters of the 1930s through 1950s VS winters of the 1960s to 1970s was quite extreme in many places. 

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro wed night 

Would be nothing during the day with Wednesday's temps, but maybe we can pull off a slushy coating since it's happening at night. 

[MJO812]

Euro crushes the Interior. Low is further south and east of 0z thanks to the stronger 5050 low.

[mannynyc]

[MJO812]

Just now, mannynyc said:

The primary needs to transfer sooner.

[snowman19]

Euro crushes the Interior. Low is further south and east of 0z thanks to the stronger 5050 low.

The only thing that saves it is that gigantic 50/50 low. The pattern out west is trash. Pray the 50/50 is real, without it, it’s an inland runner

[Allsnow]

Better trends with the high on the 12z euro.  A lot stronger then 00z which helped the front end 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro crushes the Interior. Low is further south and east of 0z thanks to the stronger 5050 low.

Forky’s absolutely right-we start off at a disadvantage near the city when we have a western trough that’ll want to kick up a SE ridge for any storm. We need the blocking to happen or we’re cooked with any stronger storm. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Forky’s absolutely right-we start off at a disadvantage near the city when we have a western trough that’ll want to kick up a SE ridge for any storm. We need the blocking to happen or we’re cooked with any stronger storm. 

these changes help quite a bit, though. 50/50 is much stronger and heights out west are higher

[Allsnow]

The following threat after the 7th. So nice to see the Highs in southeast Canada again 

[It's Always Sunny]

50/50 low is irrelevant to this storm's track in my opinion. What's important is where this storm develops. It's all about the timing/location of jet stream phasing. 12Z ECMWF similar to what GFS has been showing past couple runs:

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The following threat after the 7th. So nice to see the Highs in southeast Canada again 

Another huge storm 

 

7th and 10th storm are huge on the euro.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Another huge storm 

 

7th and 10th storm are huge on the euro.

 

We probably want weaker storms

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Another huge storm 

 

7th and 10th storm are huge on the euro.

 

Please tell me it’s snow for NYC on 10th. May be up in Manhattan that week.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

We probably want weaker storms

Need the highs in southeast Canada to trend stronger. This isn’t a pattern for a pure snowstorm 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Please tell me it’s snow for NYC on 10th. May be up in Manhattan that week.

Too soon to say. That's the very end of the euro run

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

storms like march 2017 and dec 2020 should stay in everyone's heads as reminders about what can happen to great looks at 48 hours

March 2017 was the first thought I had as well.  Might come down to how well that high to the north can serve us.  But maybe—just maybe—we will have some luck on our side.  Just so refreshing to actually have something to track!  Here’s to hoping things break our way in the new year!

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually, the 1950s had very mild winters overall. The 6 years from 1948-49 to 1953-54 were milder than even the current normals for NYC, and the 1950s were also NYC least snowiest decade on record (as well as "barest" decade of snowcover). The difference in winters of the 1930s through 1950s VS winters of the 1960s to 1970s was quite extreme in many places. 

Those winters weren’t mild by todays standards. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0
11	1889-1890	38.4	0
12	1952-1953	38.1	0
13	1982-1983	37.9	0
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
14	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0
15	1949-1950	37.6	2
16	1974-1975	37.5	0
-	1879-1880	37.5	2
17	1953-1954	37.4	0
18	2005-2006	37.3	0
19	1991-1992	37.2	0
-	1951-1952	37.2	2
20	2021-2022	37.1	0
-	1994-1995	37.1	0
-	1912-1913	37.1	0

[hudsonvalley21]

10 minutes ago, It&#x27;s Always Sunny said:

50/50 low is irrelevant to this storm's track in my opinion. What's important is where this storm develops. It's all about the timing/location of jet stream phasing. 12Z ECMWF similar to what GFS has been showing past couple runs:

I believe the phase would be better if it happens east of the Mississippi River.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

March 2017 was the first thought I had as well.  Might come down to how well that high to the north can serve us.  But maybe—just maybe—we will have some luck on our side.  Just so refreshing to actually have something to track!  Here’s to hoping things break our way in the new year!

December 2020 was all because of a 50/50 and strong high 

[Allsnow]

12z euro for the next two weeks 

[It's Always Sunny]

2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I believe the phase would be better if it happens east of the Mississippi River.

Yeah somewhere across the MS Valley would be ideal. You'd want to give the storm enough room to cut northeast too without swinging and missing.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those winters weren’t mild by todays standards. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0
11	1889-1890	38.4	0
12	1952-1953	38.1	0
13	1982-1983	37.9	0
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
14	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0
15	1949-1950	37.6	2
16	1974-1975	37.5	0
-	1879-1880	37.5	2
17	1953-1954	37.4	0
18	2005-2006	37.3	0
19	1991-1992	37.2	0
-	1951-1952	37.2	2
20	2021-2022	37.1	0
-	1994-1995	37.1	0
-	1912-1913	37.1	0

I'd say that's mild lol. Just not all time warm. Again, I'm aware that winters have warmed more on the East Coast than the southern lakes. But I was merely pointing out that 1950s winters were anemic in most areas in the northeastern third of the country.