January 2024

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is a crush job for our area

Nice too see if we were only a couple of days out. 
 

[Allsnow]

Light snow on the model’s Wednesday night

[WX-PA]

Our first snow threat in a long time. I think everybody has a shot here. It might not work out but when there's a chance we track.

[mannynyc]

This is 6Z but this it's a good visualization of how many solutions are still on the table 

[cardinalland]

traced the storms back to the present/hour 0 and they are still quite far away at present. don't know enough to determine how this impacts prediction, but wanted to share anyways

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

long way to go - trended towards EURO

The vast majority of the time our snowfall comes from less than ideal setups, where a lot has to go just right for an all snow event. 

That said there are some features working in our favor which have been largely lacking in the last 2 years:

1.) High pressure to our north (we always had a low in the Great lakes area last two years). Would want in slightly west of that depiction however that is a cool air source.

2.) A deepening predicesor storm which is providing SOME confluence, which of course can help limit the northern trends.

3.) A storm crashing into the west coast, which, if timed right, can kick our storm east BEFORE allowing it to gain to much latitude (i.e. keeping us on the NW side.

Not a perfect -EPO/PNA/-AO/-NAO setup, however one that gives us the best threat in a couple years. Great to be able to track something.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, cardinalland said:

traced the storms back to the present/hour 0 and they are still quite far away at present. don't know enough to determine how this impacts prediction, but wanted to share anyways

When the systems hit the west coast, there will be better sampling. Wait and see for a couple of days.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Given trends there's a good chance the coastal forms too late and the track of the LP is too close to coastal sections but it could still change.

WX/PT

[jm1220]

It’s a threat in the board-saying again. But I’d rather be on the northern edge of the snow hoping for a north trend to get in the game vs right on the R/S line at this point. We’ve seen over and over what normally happens with these as get closer to game time. I’d say we need the 1/4 event to be stronger so it can form a 50/50 and block the 1/7 event from trying to cut or hug the coast. Any stronger storm without a block to force it south will try to cut north and pump the SE ridge ahead of it. 

[EastonSN+]

It's on our side of the globe now! 

[It's Always Sunny]

Sensitivity analyses will be fun to unpack once this event gets a bit closer. Trying to dissect an ensemble analysis at 180 hours lead time won't serve much purpose, however quickly glancing at it since its hard to resist, it does highlight the timing and strength of the jet stream phasing across Baja CA and NW Mexico as a key proponent to this materializing into anything good, in addition to any blocking potential across northern New England.

[EastonSN+]

This can be a decent event for the coastal plain with the cold air just to the west moving in.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s a threat in the board-saying again. But I’d rather be on the northern edge of the snow hoping for a north trend to get in the game vs right on the R/S line at this point. We’ve seen over and over what normally happens with these as get closer to game time. I’d say we need the 1/4 event to be stronger so it can form a 50/50 and block the 1/7 event from trying to cut or hug the coast. Any stronger storm without a block to force it south will try to cut north and pump the SE ridge ahead of it. 

Every threat last year did the same thing. The cmc and gfs gave us about 10 feet of virtual snow

[BoulderWX]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s a solid High to the north would think someone will get a good hit with that feature 

Ahhh if only…

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Every threat last year did the same thing. The cmc and gfs gave us about 10 feet of virtual snow

Huge differences over last year though. We do not have a monster RNA overpowering everything. We do not have a low pressure in the great lakes for every event like last year. Very different.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Huge differences over last year though. We do not have a monster RNA overpowering everything. We do not have a low pressure in the great lakes for every event like last year. Very different.

But once the models settle on a rainstorm they usually don't budge. Luckily we haven't gotten to that point yet aside from the euro

[jm1220]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Huge differences over last year though. We do not have a monster RNA overpowering everything. We do not have a low pressure in the great lakes for every event like last year. Very different.

Right, if we have a strong storm coming up the coast and there’s a mechanism to provide cold air and overrunning like a big high, it’ll be a snowy outcome somewhere for sure. We just need something to force it on a more NE vs N track, or force it E before we start changing to rain. 

[cardinalland]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This can be a decent event for the coastal plain with the cold air just to the west moving in.

it would be interesting if a storm formed off that cold front, i know that kind of setup has delivered before

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

it would be interesting if a storm formed off that cold front, i know that kind of setup has delivered before

Yeah this type of setup is what works for the SE areas of the sub forum.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But once the models settle on a rainstorm they usually don't budge. Luckily we haven't gotten to that point yet aside from the euro

It could be rain, but it's more fun to look at what can go right.

[Rjay]

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Right, if we have a strong storm coming up the coast and there’s a mechanism to provide cold air and overrunning like a big high, it’ll be a snowy outcome somewhere for sure. We just need something to force it on a more NE vs N track, or force it E before we start changing to rain. 

Yup, our best potential in a while. I don't think it will be the last either.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup, our best potential in a while. I don't think it will be the last either.

We just need something to break the streak. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup, our best potential in a while. I don't think it will be the last either.

In a Strong El Niño, the storms available shouldn’t be a problem. It’s timing them with the right preceding conditions. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, jm1220 said:

In a Strong El Niño, the storms available shouldn’t be a problem. It’s timing them with the right preceding conditions. 

Correct. Too bad this was a strong El nino, if this were moderate or weak we could have been talking a great winter. 

[cardinalland]

UKMET output looks fairly similar to CMC. less amped than the EURO 00z which is ideal (at least up to h144)

[MANDA]

It is a week away.  The details are far from certain and the models WILL waffle back and forth.

I'm just happy there is some potential and something to track.   Looks like legit chance of measurable snow especially interior.

For now just watch the model trends....long way to go.

[forkyfork]

i hate this look in the west sry

[mannynyc]

[mannynyc]