NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I guess I should've said is it behaving like one In places where there are statistically significant El Nino correlations? Yes, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 As discussed, the 6th-7th window is the one opportunity I dont totally dismiss regarding snow chances. Still need a few things to go right to make it happen, but some HP in east Can is helpful. You need to amp this some, but a deep bombing coastal low probably overwhelms marginal HP help for most in the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Hard to get excited about the OP GFS when both storms are outliers in their own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Hard to get excited about the OP GFS when both storms are outliers in their own ensembles. Gefs are usually flatter but it made a shift west at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Hard to get excited about the OP GFS when both storms are outliers in their own ensembles. It's just something to watch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Looking at the snow drought charts this also happened in the 70s. So, it happens. Climate change certainly doesn’t help. we will rebound. Eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: In 7 days it posts a big Aleutian ridge. This has been overwhelming the NAO just constantly since 2018-19 Well, 2018-2019 didn't have much NAO, but last year it certainly did. 2018-2019 had a big -EPO, but we kept getting cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: If the block and 50/50 arereal Then we have a chance. we really haven’t had any luck in that department the past few years These are the kind of developments I was banking on to salvage a respectable season....we didn't have this in the awful el Nino seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, 2018-2019 didn't have much NAO, but last year it certainly did. 2018-2019 had a big -EPO, but we kept getting cutters. https://ibb.co/BtJGb7J March 2018 was the last time we saw -NAO-based trough in the East in the Winter months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: https://ibb.co/BtJGb7J March 2018 was the last time we saw -NAO-based trough in the East in the Winter months. Last March would have been perfect even with a medium -PNA, but that west coast trough was historic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Last March would have been perfect even with a medium -PNA, but that west coast trough was historic. I'm surprised we didn't squash the SE ridge in mid-March because the Pacific ridge extended up to -EPO. Must be because it's in the later part of the -PNA phase/cycle https://ibb.co/SRLw91H https://ibb.co/QX0zz36 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm surprised we didn't squash the SE ridge in mid-March because the Pacific ridge extended up to -EPO. Must be because it's in the later part of the -PNA phase/cycle https://ibb.co/SRLw91H https://ibb.co/QX0zz36 It was discussed a ton in the MA forum the last year why it seems we now get an SER in patterns we never used to get it in before. Nobody really knows why 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was discussed a ton in the MA forum the last year why it seems we now get an SER in patterns we never used to get it in before. Nobody really knows why @bluewavehas presented research tying it to CC due to the West PAC warm pool. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 hours ago, NittanyWx said: As discussed, the 6th-7th window is the one opportunity I dont totally dismiss regarding snow chances. Still need a few things to go right to make it happen, but some HP in east Can is helpful. You need to amp this some, but a deep bombing coastal low probably overwhelms marginal HP help for most in the area. Weekend rule in effect… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Nam with some light showers/snow showers as the ball drops 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 me watching the 0z gfs to see if the storm on the 7th holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0Z GFS Op is too far east but cold enough for the mid/late week possible event but the 0Z CMC is all frozen here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Cmc hits the mid Atlantic just like the icon with the 7th wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc hits the mid Atlantic just like the icon with the 7th wave Gfs is coming north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS THOUGH!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Huge hit on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 We're so back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 although we're a week out, its go time. we might get on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Wow cmc also came in alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Cmc has light snow for the 4th hit for the 7th and looks like the 10th will start as snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: although we're a week out, its go time. we might get on the board Now - what can go wrong ? lol 8-9 days out less then 50 % confidence of this actually verifying IMO - the key to this event is that HP in southeast Canada being strong enough and staying in that position along with the 50/50 low 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The 4th wave becomes the 50 50 to lock in the cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now