January 2024

[bluewave]

  On 12/24/2023 at 1:02 PM, snowman19 said:

The very fast split flow aside, we still have the already mentioned source region issues with cold/snow/ice. And the overnight runs of both GEPS and GEFS are developing an RNA pattern by the 8/9th

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Yeah, do think we warm up after the first week of January. Very strong forcing near 60E is close to a MJO 2 signal. The composite has a trough in the Western US during an El Niño. That’s why I think the EPS has that general look. Believe the key to getting any SSW to work for us later January into February is what the Pacific does. As we have seen in recent years, we need the Pacific on our side even with near record -AOs like December 22 and at other times. So let’s hope some backloaded El Niño effect can push back against what the Pacific has been doing in recent years.

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/24/2023 at 2:18 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, do think we warm up after the first week of January. Very strong forcing near 60E is close to a MJO 2 signal. The composite has a trough in the Western US during an El Niño. That’s why I think the EPS has that general look. Believe the key to getting any SSW to work for us later January into February is what the Pacific does. As we have seen in recent years, we need the Pacific on our side even with near record -AOs like December 22 and at other times. So let’s hope some backloaded El Niño effect can push back against what the Pacific has been doing in recent years.

 

 

 

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Mjo 3 is cold in the east during Nino…

 

[bluewave]

  On 12/24/2023 at 2:26 PM, Allsnow said:

Mjo 3 is cold in the east during Nino…

 

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But the strongest forcing remains near phase 2. Notice the big 30C warm pool centered around 60E. So the forcing may slowdown in 2 instead of going 3-4-5 right away. We’ll have to see. But it’s why I believe the EPS weeklies hold the trough in the west after the first week of January.
 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/24/2023 at 2:33 PM, bluewave said:

But the strongest forcing remains near phase 2. Notice the big 30C warm pool centered around 60E.  So the forcing may slowdown in 2 instead of going 3-4-5 right away. We’ll have to see. But it’s why I believe the EPS weeklies hold the trough in the west after the first week of January. We’ll see how things turn out. 
 

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Gotcha. We shall see. 

[WX-PA]

  On 12/24/2023 at 2:18 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, do think we warm up after the first week of January. Very strong forcing near 60E is close to a MJO 2 signal. The composite has a trough in the Western US during an El Niño. That’s why I think the EPS has that general look. Believe the key to getting any SSW to work for us later January into February is what the Pacific does. As we have seen in recent years, we need the Pacific on our side even with near record -AOs like December 22 and at other times. So let’s hope some backloaded El Niño effect can push back against what the Pacific has been doing in recent years.

 

 

 

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If the 360hr ensemble forecast is correct..it can still snow with that look in Januray..although a trough in the west there is really no se ridge to speak of, unlike last year. I think it snows here the first half of January.

 

[MJO812]

  On 12/24/2023 at 3:01 PM, WX-PA said:

If the 360hr ensemble forecast is correct..it can still snow with that look in Januray..although a trough in the west there is really no se ridge to speak of, unlike last year. I think it snows here the first half of January.

 

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All the ensembles are favorable moving forward with possible snow during the 1st half of Janaury .

 

[Stormlover74]

Weenies are the perfect stocking stuffer

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/8/2023 at 2:30 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Those were the zonal winds at 250 mb. Here's the 500 mb pattern:

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  On 12/24/2023 at 2:18 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, do think we warm up after the first week of January. Very strong forcing near 60E is close to a MJO 2 signal. The composite has a trough in the Western US during an El Niño. That’s why I think the EPS has that general look. Believe the key to getting any SSW to work for us later January into February is what the Pacific does. As we have seen in recent years, we need the Pacific on our side even with near record -AOs like December 22 and at other times. So let’s hope some backloaded El Niño effect can push back against what the Pacific has been doing in recent years.

 

 

 

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I think we can survive a moderate/minor RNA in January, especially out northern suburbs. Agreed strong RNAs never have worked for us (especially December). Posted December 1888 (courtesy of Don) which overwhelm our blocking like the last 2 Decembers. Unfortunately PAC always trumps blocking/Atlantic. 

[MJO812]

Gfs looks great going forward 

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/24/2023 at 4:42 PM, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks great going forward 

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It's not really cold til the 5th. Looks average and dry prior to that

[MJO812]

  On 12/24/2023 at 5:20 PM, Stormlover74 said:

It's not really cold til the 5th. Looks average and dry prior to that

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Better than warmth 

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/24/2023 at 6:09 PM, MJO812 said:

Better than warmth 

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If it's not going to snow I'd rather it be 60

[Stormlover74]

Too warm 

 

[MJO812]

  On 12/24/2023 at 7:19 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Too warm 

 

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Gfs is really suppressed.  Euro overamped bias ?

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/24/2023 at 7:21 PM, MJO812 said:

Gfs is really suppressed.  Euro overamped bias ?

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Even so it's not a terrible track just no cold air near the coast

Edit nevermind it's a cutter with a late transfer

But its 9 days out

[Allsnow]

EPS gefs geps all look good for chances to start January and beyond 

[MJO812]

  On 12/24/2023 at 7:27 PM, bluewave said:

Either solution won’t work for us. This has been the pattern in recent years. Fast split flow patterns with a trough in the West or near the Baja. Some systems run to our west and are too warm and others get suppressed. Plus the highs don’t hang in long enough in SE Canada since the pattern is so progressive.

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We don't know if it will work out for us or not. This is still way in the long range. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/24/2023 at 7:51 PM, MJO812 said:

We don't know if it will work out for us or not. This is still way in the long range. 

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Everything will need to line up perfectly

[Allsnow]

  On 12/24/2023 at 7:27 PM, bluewave said:

Either solution won’t work for us. This has been the pattern in recent years. Fast split flow patterns with a trough in the West or near the Baja. Some systems run to our west and are too warm and others get suppressed. Plus the highs don’t hang in long enough in SE Canada since the pattern is so progressive.

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When is the last few winters have we had such an active STJ?  

[MJO812]

  On 12/24/2023 at 7:54 PM, Allsnow said:

When is the last few winters have we had such an active STJ?  

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2016?

[bluewave]

  On 12/24/2023 at 7:54 PM, Allsnow said:

When is the last few winters have we had such an active STJ?  

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We have had an active STJ and NPJ split flow dueling all month.
 

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

  On 12/24/2023 at 8:29 PM, bluewave said:

We have had an active STJ and NPJ split flow dueling all month.
 

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Your post stated “this has been the pattern in recent years” we haven’t had an active stj in recent years. 
 

we have been in a Nina with strong northern jet and se ridge the last few winters 

 

That  not the H5 map for early January 

[snowman19]

  On 12/25/2023 at 11:39 AM, bluewave said:

The models still have a fast split flow pattern in early January. Forecasts are for a trough in the SW. Even El Niño patterns with a trough in the SW and a more dominant STJ don’t produce significant snowstorms. We need a ridge out West and preferably a -AO with 50/50 low to lock cold high pressure in SE Canada. I was referring to intervals in the past few years with split flow patterns. The NPJ was dominant with the STJ weaker. Now if we get a stronger STJ and weaker NPJ we need a stronger ridge out West to coincide with some blocking on the Atlantic side. The issue was the same with a dominant NPJ and trough out West. There is a reason our best snowfall month in the last few years especially for Long Island was Jan 22. Great ridge out West. Though the lack on -AO favored Islip for the record snows since the lows slipped a little too far east for areas further west.

 

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That very fast split-flow is going to get stronger….the El Niño is about to peak within the next 2-3 weeks, the SOI has been crashing in the -20’s and -30’s and the WWB is causing regions 3.4 and 3 to warm further, SSTs in those regions have been at “super” (over +2.0C) levels for over a month now

@donsutherland1

[MJO812]

Cold and stormy on the gfs. Let's get some snow.

[SnowGoose69]

If indeed we are gonna torch or go mild for a time around 1/8 onward it makes sense we could see a big event just prior to that as the 12Z Op shows...1/5-1/7 might be where something goes down

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/25/2023 at 4:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

If indeed we are gonna torch or go mild for a time around 1/8 onward it makes sense we could see a big event just prior to that as the 12Z Op shows...1/5-1/7 might be where something goes down

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if we get an anomalous block like that, the whole pattern evolution changes up

[SnowGoose69]

  On 12/25/2023 at 5:03 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

if we get an anomalous block like that, the whole pattern evolution changes up

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I am still suspect of any long duration -PNA pattern happening...depends largely on what the dynamics behind the change are but if its strictly based on the MJO going 4-5 I am far from sold it happens.  

[Allsnow]

Active gfs run with snow opportunities 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/25/2023 at 5:05 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

I am still suspect of any long duration -PNA pattern happening...depends largely on what the dynamics behind the change are but if its strictly based on the MJO going 4-5 I am far from sold it happens.  

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looking at NAM plots, it seems like any SSW activity may rapidly downwell and lead to blocking mid-month. there’s usually a lag as it downwells, but it seems pretty efficient here

or it could just be wave breaking activity. either way, this SSW likely downwells at some point this month, and we can see significant blocking because of it