40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the competing Maritime MJO forces in December actually enhanced the El Niño effect making it much warmer for the US than usual. So instead of the regular vanilla Canadian ridge, we got one of the strongest on record producing one of the warmest Decembers on record. The final composite for December was similar to a MJO 7 Nino composite that locked in due to the near record forcing over the WPAC near 7. Our last El Niño in December 2015 featured more record warmth centered further east due to the MJO 5 pattern getting stuck in place. Now the record westward forcing into the IO is producing more of a La Niña type pattern in January with a -PNA and Southeast ridge developing. The most recent extended GEFS keeps this pattern going well into January. While anything past 2 weeks is uncertain, we have seen these robust -PNAs in recent years last longer than expected. Yes. Good post and same page. I remain hopeful post 20th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eric Webb says be patient. Strong El Ninos are backloaded. Are we In a strong el nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 8 minutes ago, North and West said: We’re experiencing the 1989-1993 and 1997-2000 timeframes again. . This is unprecedented. 89-93 averaged around 20" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This is unprecedented. 89-93 averaged 20"+ Yeah, tired of the 80 comparisons. We currently close to two years without a inch of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the competing Maritime MJO forces in December actually enhanced the El Niño effect making it much warmer for the US than usual. So instead of the regular vanilla Canadian ridge, we got one of the strongest on record producing one of the warmest Decembers on record. The final composite for December was similar to a MJO 7 Nino composite that locked in due to the near record forcing over the WPAC near 7. Our last El Niño in December 2015 featured more record warmth centered further east due to the MJO 5 pattern getting stuck in place. Now the record westward forcing into the IO is producing more of a La Niña type pattern in January with a -PNA and Southeast ridge developing. The most recent extended GEFS keeps this pattern going well into January. While anything past 2 weeks is uncertain, we have seen these robust -PNAs in recent years last longer than expected. Thanks for this. We have definitely been in a predominant west coast trough, save 2021/2022, for the last five years excluding the current year. You have pointed out the IO and western Pacific temps as the driver which does make sense. From a learning perspective, what drove the continuous west coast ridge from 2000 through 2018? 2013 through 2015 was the east based negative EPO, however what drove the remaining years? Were the warmer water departures in a more favorable spot continuously through this period? I am actually seeing the benefits of the west coast troughing now as the southern California reservoirs have made a DRAMATIC, incredible come back and the snowpack has increased tremendously which is great! I believe the last time they had these levels were from the El nino periods of the 80s and 90s (I used to think that all the ski movies of the 80s were due to the fact that it always snowed there non stop lol). The predominant west coast Ridge from 2000 through 2018 was the driver in the reservoir issues out west. Finally, if one maritime force drove the west coast ridge from 2000 through 2018, and now another above normal ocean temperature location is driving the west coast troughing, what do we look for in terms of the next maritime driver location? What mechanism would drive this change? The favorable location lasted from 2000 through 2018, so unfortunately this may last another 10 years plus lol. Finally, why are the western Pacific Ocean temps skyrocketing faster than other locations? I understand there is a lot of development in that area, however, water currents are continuous so it's hard to believe that industrial activities would be driving that one area. Thank thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Are we In a strong el nino? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Which means that day when he finally forecasts snow, it's definitely going to snow. Bluewave can be plenty bullish on snow when the right pattern comes around. But I remember leading up to the Jan 22 blizzard that he and Don S were against a big impact for NYC because of the +AO (with stats to prove it) and they were right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Yes. I guess I should've said is it behaving like one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This is unprecedented. 89-93 averaged around 20" A better comparison is 1985 through 1990, where central park averaged only 15.34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Bluewave has been a step ahead every forecaster for years now 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I have been on bluewave and allsnow so far this winter but they have been accurate . I think my December call was okay....my only regret is not including 2015 as an analog for December, however, I doubled up on it for January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Bluewave can be plenty bullish on snow when the right pattern comes around. But I remember leading up to the Jan 22 blizzard that he and Don S were against a big impact for NYC because of the +AO (with stats to prove it) and they were right. Was that the one where LI got blasted with over 20 Inches ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think my December call was okay....my only regret is not including 2015 as an analog for December, however, I doubled up on it for January. You also have been accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, tired of the 80 comparisons. We currently close to two years without a inch of snow jan 85 was -7.9 at ewr. lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, forkyfork said: jan 85 was -7.9 at ewr. lol Crazy… we will never see that again in today’s climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: You also have been accurate I would say they have been better, but I feel like some have the impression I was forecasting a 2002-2003, 2009-2010 redux and that isn't true. As far as February being in trouble, it will take more than the weeklies to convince me of that, as they have been crap....but if that were to happen, then that would effectively sink my outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I wish Bluewave would make seasonal efforts....that pains me as much as Isotherm going mute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 12Z GDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, tired of the 80 comparisons. We currently close to two years without a inch of snow The better comparison would be 1996 through 2000, where Central Park averaged just 11.125 inches of snow! Let's see how this year shakes out as well as next year, as we could challenge that 4 year abismal stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah the better comparison would be 1996 through 2000, where Central Park averaged just 11.125 inches of snow! Let's see how this year shakes out as well as next year, as we could challenge that 4 year abismal stretch. Yea, that was a another Pacific cold phase stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Well, December actually acted like a true strong El nino background state with the entire continent void of arctic air (flooded by PAC air). As for January, we do see the trough dip first out west, the million dollar question is will the trough move east with time. If it's just 1 to 2 weeks that's fine. If not we are waiting for shorter wavelengths in Feb and March (and unfortunately April which has been cool and dreary lately). Also, WRT the la Nina/trough out west look, are we saying this has never happened before in a strong El Nino? We never experienced a western trough in strong El nino history in January? Not sure but perhaps Don or Bluewave knows. After such a Pac Jet extension you will generally have a retraction of sorts, which is that trough you see develop across the W US. It's normal and inherently part of any sort of pattern change to right the ship to a pattern most people want to see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said: After such a Pac Jet extension you will generally have a retraction of sorts, which is that trough you see develop across the W US. It's normal and inherently part of any sort of pattern change to right the ship to a pattern most people want to see. This is how I view it, but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish Bluewave would make seasonal efforts....that pains me as much as Isotherm going mute. Isotherm is GOAT. Loved reading his extended winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Nibor said: Isotherm is GOAT. Loved reading his extended winter outlook. Where did he go ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: jan 85 was -7.9 at ewr. lol Lol I never want to feel those temps again. Brutal. The 80s were pretty volatile temperature wise. 1989 was especially so with a record cold December followed by record warmth in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GDPS Not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, Nibor said: Isotherm is GOAT. Loved reading his extended winter outlook. Yea, but now he is GHOST. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Good post and same page. I remain hopeful post 20th. I think the reason the pattern changes since December 2015 have been so dramatic is possibly related to non-linear shifts. Many expect to see linear gradual changes over time. But it appears we have crossed a barrier where the record SSTs in the warmer MJO regions have lead to more of a jump rather than a gradual change. While it remains to be seen how this will play out in the future, I will continue to have an open mind and take a wait and see approach long term until we have more years of data to make a firm conclusion either way. But in the mean time, it has proven to be a useful forecast tool. This paper discusses non-linear shifts but still looks very general and I am not sure if it’s the authors intentions to apply more generally to stuck or repeating weather patterns. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101499 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 At least the end of the week and coming weekend have potential for some interesting weather. Something to follow, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, lee59 said: At least the end of the week and coming weekend have potential for some interesting weather. Something to follow, at least. Gfs was close with the 7th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs was close with the 7th Pulling for DC. They already had their first snow would like for them to get another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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