kdennis78 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Not at the moment - recent model runs show a suppressed pattern next week - lets see if that changes at 0Z I'm sure that it will because we can go without punishment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 25 minutes ago, kdennis78 said: I'm sure that it will because we can go without punishment. 0Z GEM shows a rain/snow mix for NYC metro - the GFS is suppressed for the mid week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GEM shows a rain/snow mix for NYC metro - the GFS is suppressed for the mid week storm That's all rain for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's all rain for NYC can't say that with any certainty because the GFS is suppressed with cold enough air in place - a compromise solution would include frozen precip use the 534 line as the rain/snow line also have to start looking at the ENSEMBLES more closely in these borderline situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 the long range storm still in fantasy land for the 8th has colder air in place BUT the storm is being shoved out to sea by that LP north of Lake Superior that shows up in this GFS run BUT the GEM does not show the LP north of Lake Superior instead a 1030 HP in Maine BUT this is going to change many times in the coming days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: @40/70 Benchmarkand others in the Niño thread through the fall were discussing the MEI and RONI, that despite how strong the Niño grew the atmospheric response wasn’t quite as strong. I don’t know where those values are right now, and I don’t know if this is still a valid point or question to raise, but was wondering if this could have anything to do with it? Assuming those metrics are still on the low-ish end? I may be on the wrong track here, just thinking out loud. I mean the Niño did do the strong Niño thing of torching NA with pac air, so forgive me if this doesn’t make sense. It still holds true and we are seeing some of that play out with these episodes of Maritime forcing....I articulated it as the atmospheric response not being as strong, but I think @bluewavedescribed it better with the phrase "competng forces". The tropical convection being so far west is what is causing this Maritime forcing that we will see again in January, but by February that should start to work in our favor by allowing the convection to translate closer to the dateline. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It still holds true and we are seeing some of that play out with these episodes of Maritime forcing....I articulated it as the atmospheric response not being as strong, but I think @bluewavedescribed it better with the phrase "competng forces". The tropical convection being so far west is what is causing this Maritime forcing that we will see again in January, but by February that should start to work in our favor by allowing the convection to translate closer to the dateline. Thank you for dropping by our little insane asylum and making great posts like this. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 No change from yesterday--- not too worried about suppression. Up here we're northern fringes for a while. My overall thinking based on ensembles (not individual single member op runs). Northeast USA from interior sections of NC-VA northward (mainly west of I95) : wintry options around Thursday January 4, next weekend January 6-7 and around January 10. For now playing this as there will be one event listed above, that produces an inch or more of snow for all of us (I95 or just west of I95) but which and where each system targets, too early for me but at least there are options on the table that could produce a plowable 4+" inch snow -- this latter impression is not a guarantee of widespread. The 1" I'm pretty confident of from NC/VA northward to Canada. How it plays and where each event targets the snow-ice vs rain is to be determined. As far as rainfall between 4th-14th--- another general 1-4" is a more than 50% chance for the I95 cities - it's an El Nino winter with a coastal storm track. The 4" rainfall potential probably has a better chance of verifying NC/GA but its within the realm of possibility up to NYC-BOS-Hartford and for snow lover's we hope not in ski-snow mobile country of the interior northeast. We've had enough rain... top 10 wettest December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It still holds true and we are seeing some of that play out with these episodes of Maritime forcing....I articulated it as the atmospheric response not being as strong, but I think @bluewavedescribed it better with the phrase "competng forces". The tropical convection being so far west is what is causing this Maritime forcing that we will see again in January, but by February that should start to work in our favor by allowing the convection to translate closer to the dateline. Yeah, the competing Maritime MJO forces in December actually enhanced the El Niño effect making it much warmer for the US than usual. So instead of the regular vanilla Canadian ridge, we got one of the strongest on record producing one of the warmest Decembers on record. The final composite for December was similar to a MJO 7 Nino composite that locked in due to the near record forcing over the WPAC near 7. Our last El Niño in December 2015 featured more record warmth centered further east due to the MJO 5 pattern getting stuck in place. Now the record westward forcing into the IO is producing more of a La Niña type pattern in January with a -PNA and Southeast ridge developing. The most recent extended GEFS keeps this pattern going well into January. While anything past 2 weeks is uncertain, we have seen these robust -PNAs in recent years last longer than expected. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the competing Maritime MJO forces in December actually enhanced the El Niño effect making it much warmer for the US than usual. So instead of the regular vanilla Canadian ridge, we got one of the strongest on record producing one of the warmest Decembers on record. The final composite for December was similar to a MJO 7 Nino composite that locked in due to the near record forcing over the WPAC near 7. Our last El Niño in December 2015 featured more record warmth centered further east due to the MJO 5 pattern getting stuck in place. Now the record westward forcing into the IO is producing more of a La Niña type pattern in January with a -PNA and Southeast ridge developing. The most recent extended GEFS keeps this pattern going well into January. While anything past 2 weeks is uncertain, we have seen these robust -PNAs in recent years last longer than expected. 60 600 hr GEFS?..Where did you pull this out from? 2 weeks is not even accurate.I know your trying to prove a point it's going to be warm. Fine, get it.It's a warm winter.Doesn't mean it can't snow in January. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, WX-PA said: 600 hr GEFS?..Where did you pull this out from? 2 weeks is not even accurate.I know your trying to prove a point it's going to be warm. Fine, get it.It's a warm winter.Doesn't mean it can't snow in January. The only reason I show that is due to the fact that the EPS weeklies now have a trough near the West and a ridge near the Northeast well into January. The EPS weeklies have had a cold bias longer range but the GEFS has been a little better but still too cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only reason I show that is due to the fact that the EPS weeklies now have a trough near the West and a ridge near the Northeast well into January. The EPS weeklies have had a cold bias longer range but the GEFS has been a little better but still too cold. If you posted your own winter outlook, you’d be getting enormous credit if this played out like you’re saying. Maybe you did post your winter outlook and I must have missed it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Bluewave is taking away people's snow. 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Bluewave has been a step ahead every forecaster for years now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only reason I show that is due to the fact that the EPS weeklies now have a trough near the West and a ridge near the Northeast well into January. The EPS weeklies have had a cold bias longer range but the GEFS has been a little better but still too cold. Weeklies have punted that classic Nino look (Aleutian low/+pna) into February now. I think the typical Nino backloaded winter is in serious trouble. After p3 the phases are warm in the east for Nino January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 0Z Euro is Very suppressed - unless the GFS and or the Euro stop the suppression today chances rise the mid/late week storm misses us IMO - plus we don't need another rain event - many of our yards are like swamps and sump pump is over worked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies have punted that classic Nino look (Aleutian low/+pna) into February now. I think the typical Nino backloaded winter is in serious trouble. After p3 the phases are warm in the east for Nino January What good did MJO phase 8 and 1 get us? MJO is way overated..It's just one tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, WX-PA said: What good did MJO phase 8 and 1 get us? MJO is way overated..It's just one tool. The mjo was very weak in 8/1 so we didn’t get a classic response. Now a standing wave is forming in p2 which is a Nina like response for January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The mjo was very weak in 8/1 so we didn’t get a classic response. Now a standing wave is forming in p2 which is a Nina like response for January 8 and 1 was weak?..what? 1 was very strong. 3 will be very strong.. Isn't phase 3 cold for January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:48 AM, brooklynwx99 said: yes. the SPV lobe coming to our side of the globe is big I'm expecting a colder than average period through Jan 10, a moderation Jan 10-20, and then a potential significant blocking spell from late Jan into early Feb what are your expectations regarding snowfall through the colder then average period through Jan 10 ? For NYC metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, WX-PA said: 8 and 1 was weak?..what? 1 was very strong. 3 will be very strong.. Isn't phase 3 cold for January? The wave was very weak in 8-1 passage plus the jet ext overpowered any type of response. Now the standing wave is gaining strength in p2 which isn’t good for the east. P3 is cold in Nino January but unfortunately latest olr maps have the p2 wave not moving 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bluewave has been a step ahead every forecaster for years now Yep some spectacular busts out there right now… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 hours ago, wdrag said: No change from yesterday--- not too worried about suppression. Up here we're northern fringes for a while. My overall thinking based on ensembles (not individual single member op runs). Northeast USA from interior sections of NC-VA northward (mainly west of I95) : wintry options around Thursday January 4, next weekend January 6-7 and around January 10. For now playing this as there will be one event listed above, that produces an inch or more of snow for all of us (I95 or just west of I95) but which and where each system targets, too early for me but at least there are options on the table that could produce a plowable 4+" inch snow -- this latter impression is not a guarantee of widespread. The 1" I'm pretty confident of from NC/VA northward to Canada. How it plays and where each event targets the snow-ice vs rain is to be determined. As far as rainfall between 4th-14th--- another general 1-4" is a more than 50% chance for the I95 cities - it's an El Nino winter with a coastal storm track. The 4" rainfall potential probably has a better chance of verifying NC/GA but its within the realm of possibility up to NYC-BOS-Hartford and for snow lover's we hope not in ski-snow mobile country of the interior northeast. We've had enough rain... top 10 wettest December. maybe it is a good sign for chances of frozen precip that the GFS and Euro are suppressed at this range for the next two storms Jan 4-5 and 6-7 ? Both ensemble mean GEFS and GEPS at 0Z are suppressed BUT the GEPS brings some precip to southern areas of the NYC metro.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I remember with most of the winters during the 80s & 90s, the way I survived (emotionally) was I'd hope for one decent snowstorm and just get on with life. Keeping expectations low kept me sane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: 600 hr GEFS?..Where did you pull this out from? 2 weeks is not even accurate.I know your trying to prove a point it's going to be warm. Fine, get it.It's a warm winter.Doesn't mean it can't snow in January. I have been on bluewave and allsnow so far this winter but they have been accurate . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bluewave has been a step ahead every forecaster for years now This year he has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I have been on bluewave and allsnow so far this winter but they have been accurate . Yes, bluewave’s accuracy in 1-2 week lead times has been deadly. But did he put himself on the line by issuing his own winter outlook? I haven’t seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: maybe it is a good sign for chances of frozen precip that the GFS and Euro are suppressed at this range for the next too storms Jan 4-5 and 6-7 ? Both ensemble mean GEFS and GEPS at 0Z are suppressed BUT the GEPS brings some precip to southern areas of the NYC metro.... This^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Yes, bluewave’s accuracy in 1-2 week lead times has been deadly. But did he put himself on the line by issuing his own winter outlook? I haven’t seen one. I don't think he did but that doesn't matter. Long range forecasts are so fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I thought this winter was going to be a good once since we are in an El Nino. The background state is acting more like a La Nina. The MJO went through the favorable phases and nothing happened. Yes we are only in December and strong El Ninos are backloaded but time is ticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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