January 2024

[bluewave]

We are going into January with the lowest snow extent on record for North America and the whole Northern Hemisphere. These readings are normal for mid-November. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow this is so peaceful and serene.  Is this considered a lagoon?

Crater / caldera lake. Reminds me of Mazama:

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are going into January with the lowest snow extent on record for North America and the whole Northern Hemisphere. These readings are normal for mid-November. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

 

Is this reminiscent of 2011-12, Chris?

[North and West]

We are going into January with the lowest snow extent on record for North America and the whole Northern Hemisphere. These readings are normal for mid-November. 
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html



 

 
 

This rain has really perked up some new grass seed I put down for fall seeding along the curb and neighbor’s yard. Nice December 29th green lawn action.






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[MJO812]

Your daily DT talk

 

He is still watching a few chances of storms in early January and a pattern change is underway. 

 

 

[North and West]

Your daily DT talk
 
He is still watching a few chances of storms in early January and a pattern change is underway. 
 
 

His grammatical writing style is difficult to read.


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[Uniblab]

I'm afraid to see if my crocuses are popping through. 

[Volcanic Winter]

I have a nice moss carpet in my backyard, anyone want some pictures? It’s kept festive with a charming mix of acorns and squirrel droppings. 

[Brian5671]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Your daily DT talk

 

He is still watching a few chances of storms in early January and a pattern change is underway. 

 

 

He’s like mini JB

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Your daily DT talk

 

He is still watching a few chances of storms in early January and a pattern change is underway. 

 

 

1/5 is rain for us..maybe at least some snow for the interior

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

His grammatical writing style is difficult to read.


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I think he's dyslexic 

[Allsnow]

 

[wdrag]

There is no doubt(in my mind) that events around the 4th, 7-8th, 10th and possibly well beyond, provide opportunity for snow-ice, at least down to I84 per 24 hours snow depth change ensembles in near normal temps though probs for more than 1" are rather low.  

NY eve ball drop might even show flurries nearby NYC w-n suburbs.

All ensembles are above normal precip 4th-14th. Is it rain or snow/ice for I84?  Even a chance of snow down to I95.  

Does it warm up after the 10th?  

Southern streamers look pretty active to me first 2-3 weeks of Jan. 

 

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

There is no doubt(in my mind) that events around the 4th, 7-8th, 10th and possibly well beyond, provide opportunity for snow-ice, at least down to I84 per 24 hours snow depth change ensembles in near normal temps though probs for more than 1" are rather low.  

NY eve ball drop might even show flurries nearby NYC w-n suburbs.

All ensembles are above normal precip 4th-14th. Is it rain or snow/ice for I84?  Even a chance of snow down to I95.  

Does it warm up after the 10th?  

Southern streamers look pretty active to me first 2-3 weeks of Jan. 

 

It just doesnt look that cold through 10th though. Need perfect setups

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Even during a borderline super El Niño, we still find a way to get a Niña-like pattern in early to mid January. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even during a borderline super El Niño, we still find a way to get a Niña-like pattern in early to mid January. 

Can we get a p3 response out west? If not, then the super Nino did little to change the base state. 

[North and West]

I have a nice moss carpet in my backyard, anyone want some pictures? It’s kept festive with a charming mix of acorns and squirrel droppings. 

What kind of lunatic would post that


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[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

What kind of lunatic would post that


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A cold and snow starved weenie at the end of their rope, of course. 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can we get a p3 response out west? If not, then the super Nino did little to change the base state. 

Either the standing wave in P2 is so strong, or the base state is more Niña-like so p3 in the RMM forecasts is following the general composite instead of the El Niño one. All the guidance agrees on the big Western trough in early to mid January. 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Either the standing wave in P2 is so strong, or the base state in more Niña-like so p3 in the forecasts is following the general composite instead of the El Niño one. All the guidance agrees on the big Western Trough in early to mid January. 

 

 

 

I have hope we see improvements out west by mid month. If not, the typical backloaded winter Nino is probably shot. Some of the seasonal guidance is popping a dateline ridge as the western trough moves further west. 

[SnowGoose69]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even during a borderline super El Niño, we still find a way to get a Niña-like pattern in early to mid January. 

 

I would not even describe those as Nina...those long range ensembles would be torches everywhere...they are both 01-02/11-12 like minus the brief periods in those winters where we saw SERs...there's a ridge in W Canada and trof in the east as far as mean heights but there would be no cold aie.

[mannynyc]

Better than nothing on the OP GFS 

[mannynyc]

Just now, mannynyc said:

Better than nothing on the OP GFS 

Can't say I'm a huge fan of the ensemble look but would rather at least have a coastal signal. 

[MJO812]

The stupid pac ridge doesn't want to cooperate. It's been like that for years 

 

First half of January looks shot 

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The stupid pac ridge doesn't want to cooperate. It's been like that for years 

 

First half of January looks shot 

 

Then we thaw. Or since there's nothing to thaw from we just continue the warmth

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Then we thaw. Or since there's nothing to thaw from we just continue the warmth

Looks like the interior will get on the board with one of the two systems coming next week. It’s a shame we don’t have a better airmass 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the interior will get on the board with one of the two systems coming next week. It’s a shame we don’t have a better airmass 

These model runs past a few days are all over the place - nothing is set in stone IMO

[Stormlover74]

40 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

These model runs past a few days are all over the place - nothing is set in stone IMO

As Walt said the interior could cash in on one of these events next week. The coast is toast

Clarifying.. Walt did not say the coast is toast its just my opinion 

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow this is so peaceful and serene.  Is this considered a lagoon?

Wikipedia says that the last time Mount Batur erupted was about the year 2000.  Based on what I'm reading in this thread, sounds like the odds of it erupting again before we see measurable snowfall again at the coast are about 50/50.

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

This rain has really perked up some new grass seed I put down for fall seeding along the curb and neighbor’s yard. Nice December 29th green lawn action.






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I see this too locally but I don't think I understand why.  March and early April routinely see consistent temps much higher than the mostly mild conditions we've had recently, yet it takes a good while before actual grass (not weeds) start growing/greening up.  Is it that some places never went 'dormant'?  Not sure I know what I even mean by dormant, or if its driven strictly by temperature anyway.