January 2024

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’d go to see Gunung Agung in person. Beast of a volcano. Could be a future high level VEI 6 to 7 caldera candidate. 

I saw a caldera from an ancient explosion while out there, but don't recall the name of it. We even experienced a strong aftershock while there. I had spent time seeing a number of the Hindu temples (many in ruins) and a Buddhist temple.

[Volcanic Winter]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I saw a caldera from an ancient explosion while out there, but don't recall the name of it. We even experienced a strong aftershock while there. I had spent time seeing a number of the Hindu temples (many in ruins) and a Buddhist temple.

All beautiful, it’s a gorgeous place. I’d love to go for that as well. 

Both Samalas / Rinjani  and Tambora are just visible from one another on a clear day. Site of the two largest eruptions of the last millennium, both VEI 7. Indonesia is extremely prolific in its ability to create monstrous explosive volcanism. 

The fact you saw ancient calderas is part of why I suggest this about Agung. There are some exceptions, but looking at a volcanoes neighbors is a good way to learn about its activity and potential. A lot of volcanic systems progress in cycles, with large scale caldera collapse and destruction of the magma chamber being sort of the final stage. Agung could do that eventually. 

[Volcanic Winter]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I saw a caldera from an ancient explosion while out there, but don't recall the name of it. We even experienced a strong aftershock while there. I had spent time seeing a number of the Hindu temples (many in ruins) and a Buddhist temple.

Was it the Batur caldera by any chance? 

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

ever think of vacationing in Bali?

Already went a couple years back.  It's a beautiful place and the people are truly special.

 

Surfed Kuta and Uluwatu, did the temples, spent time with people and got to speak with several regular folks there.

 

It has a special energy about it. If and when I retire I'm doing 2-3 weeks there with the Mrs.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Already went a couple years back.  It's a beautiful place and the people are truly special.

 

Surfed Kuta and Uluwatu, did the temples, spent time with people and got to speak with several regular folks there.

 

It has a special energy about it. If and when I retire I'm doing 2-3 weeks there with the Mrs.

 

 

Sounds absolutely amazing!  The reason I ask is because I'm strongly considering vacationing there next year. Surfing and snorkeling are definitely two things I'd want to do there.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was there. It's a fabulous place.

wow, I'm strongly considering vacationing there next year, sounds absolutely amazing.  I heard you can see Ocean Sunfish there!

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’d go to see Gunung Agung in person. Beast of a volcano. Could be a future high level VEI 6 to 7 caldera candidate. 

There was actually a trek up to a volcano in the package I was looking at, I think that would be fun to do.

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I can only imagine how fun this place was through that event. I only really got to experience 1/29/22 and that wasn’t a huge deal outside my area and LI. More a NE storm. But was still very fun to track with a lot of last minute uncertainties, and at least something for much of the metro. 

That was around a foot of snow here and I still remember it because I didn't have to shovel, the wind blew the snow off my driveway lol.

The high snowfall totals started as soon as you got to Brooklyn and Queens.

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There was actually a trek up to a volcano in the package I was looking at, I think that would be fun to do.

I’m really hesitant to hike up active volcanoes, but an infrequent eruptor should generally be fine unless it’s clearly flashing buildup activity. 

Last year I hiked up an adjacent peak to Hekla in Iceland and that was a close as I dared to get. Absolutely absurdly beautiful out there, and was very awe inspiring to see such a legendary volcano up close. 
 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m really hesitant to hike up active volcanoes, but an infrequent eruptor should generally be fine unless it’s clearly flashing buildup activity. 

Last year I hiked up an adjacent peak to Hekla in Iceland and that was a close as I dared to get. Absolutely absurdly beautiful out there, and was very awe inspiring to see such a legendary volcano up close. 

 I think it's a dormant volcano and that view is exactly the reason I want to do it.  What a view!  Do you want to visit Iceland again now that volcanic activity seems to be on the rise there?

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Was it the Batur caldera by any chance? 

That was likely it. It was a large lake.

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 I think it's a dormant volcano and that view is exactly the reason I want to do it.  What a view!  Do you want to visit Iceland again now that volcanic activity seems to be on the rise there?

 

We’ve been five times since 2017, we have it bad for that place. Even my wife who doesn’t have the same geology passion as me has grown to love Iceland as much as me. I’ve traveled a lot in my life and Iceland has pretty much emerged as the location I can’t move on from. Convergence of a lot of hobbies and things I enjoy, I guess. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The west biased -AO block actually verified stronger and peaked around the 16th. Then we had the historic blizzard when the Pacific became favorable around the 22nd-23rd. 
 

I’m surprised we didn’t get more storms that month with a look like that. Didn’t we miss a costal the weekend before the blizzard? 

[NittanyWx]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sounds absolutely amazing!  The reason I ask is because I'm strongly considering vacationing there next year. Surfing and snorkeling are definitely two things I'd want to do there.

Go, avoid the tourist traps.

 

Definitely do the sunrise bike ride at the volcano. 

[MANDA]

Not much mention about the state of the Great Lakes water temps and ice cover.  Just checked.  On average GL water temps are running about 12 degrees F warmer than this date last year.  Average ice coverage is .20%.  Neither of those two things is going to help us chill down in any notable way over the next 2 weeks at least.  Any "cold" air mass crossing those waters is going to modify significantly. 

If we could get a frigid air mass to surge southeastward over those warm waters the LE snow guns would roar but not seeing that happen anytime soon.

[jm1220]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not that mad if this ends up being another non-winter. There's a lot of positives to a warm winter. 

I just wish it wasn't so rainy. 

February will be the month to watch. Pacific looks like trash before that.

I’ll take a stretch of below freezing NIGHTS at this point, forget days to kill off the bugs I still see everywhere. Earthworms everywhere too after this washout. 

[Eduardo]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ll take a stretch of below freezing NIGHTS at this point, forget days to kill off the bugs I still see everywhere. Earthworms everywhere too after this washout. 

I was just thinking the same thing!  Amazing how little time we have spent below freezing these past two winters.  Felt like early spring walking through Manhattan today—and we’ve had so many days like this.

[ecovers94]

3 hours ago, Eduardo said:

I was just thinking the same thing!  Amazing how little time we have spent below freezing these past two winters.  Felt like early spring walking through Manhattan today—and we’ve had so many days like this.

I'm posting because it's that bad. it is unfathomable to me that the coldest we can pull off the first week of january is 30 degrees at night-maybe. maybe, maybe it really is time to panic about climate change. this is surreal. Plants still haven't died in parts of Manhattan.

[etudiant]

11 minutes ago, ecovers94 said:

I'm posting because it's that bad. it is unfathomable to me that the coldest we can pull off the first week of january is 30 degrees at night-maybe. maybe, maybe it really is time to panic about climate change. this is surreal. Plants still haven't died in parts of Manhattan.

Cherry trees are blossoming in Central Park around the Great Lawn, probably fooled by the near spring weather

Fear that is not good for them. .

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Not much mention about the state of the Great Lakes water temps and ice cover.  Just checked.  On average GL water temps are running about 12 degrees F warmer than this date last year.  Average ice coverage is .20%.  Neither of those two things is going to help us chill down in any notable way over the next 2 weeks at least.  Any "cold" air mass crossing those waters is going to modify significantly. 

If we could get a frigid air mass to surge southeastward over those warm waters the LE snow guns would roar but not seeing that happen anytime soon.

Exactly no snow cover anywhere warm lakes and warm Canada good luck with any cold anytime soon 

[ecovers94]

3 hours ago, etudiant said:

Cherry trees are blossoming in Central Park around the Great Lawn, probably fooled by the near spring weather

Fear that is not good for them. .

Feel like the Times or at minimum the Daily News should just have a front cover page of that for once. A blooming cherry tree in late December.

[NittanyWx]

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I can only imagine how fun this place was through that event. I only really got to experience 1/29/22 and that wasn’t a huge deal outside my area and LI. More a NE storm. But was still very fun to track with a lot of last minute uncertainties, and at least something for much of the metro. 

I'm glad you got to experience that storm here because forecasting it was a pain in the ass.

[NEG NAO]

This system coming up the coast late next week might have possibilities for NYC metro boarder line temps - nice track off the coast - climatology favorable

[NEG NAO]

This is the type of pattern we want setting up close to mid January - the GFS has shown this for a few runs now - we don't need arctic blasts in mid January just cold enough air and the storm track just south of us with the rain/snow line near the Mason/Dixon line and cold HP in southeast Canada

[Cfa]

I’ve seen a couple of moths flying around on two separate occasions over the past week.

Over 11” of rain this month.

I’m not complaining, I’ll take it over being cold. I saw snow twice last month in Wisconsin, it also dropped to 11 degrees, which I wasn’t dressed for, coming from a subtropical climate and all.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I’ve seen a couple of moths flying around on two separate occasions over the past week.

Over 11” of rain this month.

Maybe a month from now we will be saying over 11" of snow this month..........

[Cfa]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Maybe a month from now we will be saying over 11" of snow this month..........

I’ll take a few penny and nickel events, no dimes please. I’ll also be happy with nothing, I’m still worn out from the 2010’s.

[mannynyc]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This system coming up the coast late next week might have possibilities for NYC metro boarder line temps - nice track off the coast - climatology favorable

GFS ensemble

[mannynyc]

January 7th-8th is also an interesting timeframe to watch

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Was it the Batur caldera by any chance? 

Wow this is so peaceful and serene.  Is this considered a lagoon?