MJO812 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles. Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive. Of course Smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Very light snow here. Have been getting very light snow and flurries since the overnight hours. Most of it has not been sticking. 34/31 I saw a total of 0.5 inch at Mt Pocono, I guess that's the most we can expect from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 41 days here since 12/1 that there has been 50% or more cloud cover here. All these overcast nights have to be helping bump up our average temps since we can't get any radiational cooling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, Don, I wonder what the end of winter rankings would look like? Would 2001-02 catch up to 1931-32 for number 1? 2001-02 would rank first at the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 24 minutes ago, wdrag said: Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles. Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive. Unfortunately, the 12z RGEM shows no snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I saw a total of 0.5 inch at Mt Pocono, I guess that's the most we can expect from this. It’s quite sad that all you can get is 0.5” at 2000’ above MSL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Nice wintry day here 32° w/ very lgt snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, snywx said: Nice wintry day here 32° w/ very lgt snow falling Just started falling here in Goshen as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 CLoudy again , colder 39. Drier and sunnier times ahead Fri - most of next week. Overall warmer than norma with a few stronger warmth days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Records: Highs: EWR: 64 (1947) NYC: 63 (1947) LGA: 61 (1974) Lows: EWR: 1 (1948) NYC: -1 (1920) LGA: 2 (1948) Historical: 1911 - Tamarack, CA, was without snow the first eight days of the month, but by the end of January had been buried under 390 inches of snow, a record monthly total for the U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1949 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, plunged to a record low of one degree below zero. Helena MT reached 42 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) 1950: Seattle, Washington experienced their coldest temperature on record with a reading of zero degrees. 1966 - A blizzard struck the northeastern U.S. When the storm came to an end, twenty inches of snow covered the ground at Washington D.C. (David Ludlum) 1979: A winter storm that started on the previous day and ended on this day spread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in 24 hours over much of coastal Southern California and two inches of snow in Palm Springs. Snow fell heavily in Palm Springs, and 8 inches fell at Lancaster. All major interstates into Los Angeles were closed. Snow drifts shut down Interstate 10 on both sides of Palm Springs, isolating the city. 1982 - A snowstorm struck Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Twenty-five inches of snow at Greenville IL, located east of Saint Louis, paralyzed the community. The storm left 4000 motorists stranded for two days. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced wind gusts to 85 mph in Oregon, and nearly two inches of rain in twelve hours in the Puget Sound area of Washington State. Ten inches of snow at Stampede Pass WA brought their total snow cover to 84 inches. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-one cities in the central and northeastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, with many occurring during the early morning hours. Temperatures in western New York State reached the 60s early in the day. Strong northerly winds in the north central U.S. produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - The barometric pressure at Norway, AK, reached 31.85 inches (1078.4 mb) establishing an all-time record for the North American Continent. The temperature at the time of the record was about 46 degrees below zero (The Weather Channel). Severe arctic cold began to invade the north central U.S. The temperature at Great Falls MT plunged 85 degrees in 36 hours. Valentine NE plummeted from a record high of 70 degrees to zero in just nine hours. Northwest winds gusted to 86 mph at Lander WY, and wind chill readings of 80 degrees below zero were reported in Montana. Sixty-four cities in the central U.S. reported record highs for the date as readings reached the 60s in Michigan and the 80s in Kansas. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - High winds in Montana on the 28th, gusting to 77 mph at Judith Gap, were followed by three days of snow. Heavy snow fell over northwest Montana, with up to 24 inches reported in the mountains. An avalanche covered the road near Essex with six feet of snow. Snow and high winds also plagued parts of the southwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 54 mph at Show Low AZ, and Flagstaff AZ was blanketed with eight inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Came home to another .1" of snow that fell early this afternoon. .3 for the day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: Came home to another .1" of snow that fell early this afternoon. .3 for the day! Kocin and Ucellini are already working on the case study. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I saw a total of 0.5 inch at Mt Pocono, I guess that's the most we can expect from this. My uncles place mid way between Scranton and Binghamton at 1900’ got 6”. So you just missed out on good banding. It was a lack of precip issue. I’ll be there this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Kocin and Ucellini are already working on the case study. That’s a HECS this year for sure, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 January is concluding with a monthly mean temperature of 37.0° in New York City. That is 3.3° above normal. The December 1-January 31 mean temperature will be 40.8°, which ranks 5th highest on record. With the exception of Winter 1931-32, all of the five warmest December-January periods have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869. Clouds could persist through much of tomorrow. It will turn milder with readings returning to the middle and upper 40s across the region. Philadelphia and southward could see the thermometer reach or exceed 50°. Showers and possibly a period of light rain is likely late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Friday through the weekend should feature dry and mild readings. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather. Seasonal snowfall in New York City stood at 2.3" at the close of January. There were 19 prior winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -21.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.079 today. On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.171 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.393 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: My uncles place mid way between Scranton and Binghamton at 1900’ got 6”. So you just missed out on good banding. It was a lack of precip issue. I’ll be there this weekend. You should stop on the way and ski at the newly reopened Holiday Mt. New owner and rebuilt or refurbished everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: Of course Smh Unfortunately, in the end I like the Canadian with snow, otherwise. I sure hope we can get something those last two weeks of Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: January is concluding with a monthly mean temperature of 37.0° in New York City. That is 3.3° above normal. The December 1-January 31 mean temperature will be 40.8°, which ranks 5th highest on record. With the exception of Winter 1931-32, all of the five warmest December-January periods have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869. Clouds could persist through much of tomorrow. It will turn milder with readings returning to the middle and upper 40s across the region. Philadelphia and southward could see the thermometer reach or exceed 50°. Showers and possibly a period of light rain is likely late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Friday through the weekend should feature dry and mild readings. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather. Seasonal snowfall in New York City stood at 2.3" at the close of January. There were 19 prior winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -21.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.079 today. On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.171 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.393 (RMM). Don, what happened to the 1895-1896 winter in this list? Didn't we have less than 3" through the end of January and ended up with 46" that season-- mostly on the strength of the snowiest March on record with over 30" of snow in that month alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Kocin and Ucellini are already working on the case study. LOL ! We will nickel and dime are way to under average ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, what happened to the 1895-1896 winter in this list? Didn't we have less than 3" through the end of January and ended up with 46" that season-- mostly on the strength of the snowiest March on record with over 30" of snow in that month alone? Winter 1895-96 had an even 3" at the end of January. I looked at cases with below 3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Today was beautiful at Belleayre. Great snow and great conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Woo hoo, the January thaw is over! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 The historic winter warmth pattern since December 2015 continues. A record breaking 20 warmer winter months out of the last 26. NYC Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The historic winter warmth pattern since December 2015 continues. A record breaking 20 warmer winter months out of the last 26. NYC Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 Chris how does this compare to the high solar early 90s (1990 and 1991) pattern of 22 out of 24 months above normal? Those were the two warmest years on record globally at that point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 Update the initial Jan thread with monthly verification and comments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 19 minutes ago, wdrag said: Update the initial Jan thread with monthly verification and comments. Cold In Montana has been amazingly consistent the last few winters. So I’ll add them with Alaska for places we do not want to see cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Cold In Montana has been amazingly consistent the last few winters. So I’ll add them with Alaska for places we do not want to see cold. The further away you get from either ocean and with elevation, you'll get much more resistance to warming. There were maps of this posted, the Northern Rockies have had the least deviation towards positive departures in temperature of any location in the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Temperature anomalies in western regions are a bit misleading, we've seen one super cold spell of about a week and otherwise mostly well above normal. DEN for example averaged +13.5 for last four days but -27 for Jan 11-16. A lot of daily records have been broken in the past week. So we've come to the end of the month with ground conditions (soggy snow at ski resorts) similar to 1998 despite a different anomaly. Now in the past few winters we have seen a few cases of cold anomalies persistent all month. Feb 2019 was a very cold month all along, and winter 2022-23 was generally quite cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 1/28/2024 at 8:28 AM, donsutherland1 said: Week ahead numbers: Cooler than the prior week but a snowy outcome appears unlikely based on those numbers and forecast drier pattern. Final numbers: Warmer and drier than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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