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January 2024


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9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If you want to build an island 150 miles or so SE of here you can probably enjoy it every time we have strong NW wind CAA in the winter. That’s been rare though. 

That's why we see huge bands of snow over the ocean on a cold sunny winter's day all the time.  It's all being wasted on the fish lol.

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28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd be happy getting this every other day (with a day of sunshine in between) and forget all about big storms and arctic cold shots and cutters and whatever else misery happens here.

 

Agree. I'll take a dozen of minor events rather than just one blockbuster storm and that's it for the season.

Just enough to look pretty outside but doesn't disrupt travel. Best of both worlds, minus the brine and road salt. 

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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

More clouds. How many days since we’ve seen the sun? 10? Has to be a record!

Looks like the sun won't come out until Friday afternoon now.

Plain cloudy or plain rainy days are just awful, if we just had light snow all day and even if we just a light coating on everything, it'd be wonderful.

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23 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Agree. I'll take a dozen of minor events rather than just one blockbuster storm and that's it for the season.

Just enough to look pretty outside but doesn't disrupt travel. Best of both worlds, minus the brine and road salt. 

Yep, I can do without the plain cloudy days and the plain rainy days, if we just had light snow every other day and a light coating on everything, it would be a lot more cheerful around here.

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, I can do without the plain cloudy days and the plain rainy days, if we just had light snow every other day and a light coating on everything, it would be a lot more cheerful around here.

 

Very light snow here.  Have been getting very light snow and flurries since the overnight hours.  Most of it has not been sticking.  34/31

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Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

image.png.1c92c9bfa7062beeb96e69ff06d83947.png

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

image.thumb.png.d4b4e6ef2927141a0aa022f6c38fd06e.png

 

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24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

More clouds. How many days since we’ve seen the sun? 10? Has to be a record!

The sun was out on Saturday in Roslyn and was peeking out in Syosset on way to Roslyn.  Don’t know for how long, as I was busy entertaining at my kid’s bday party. 

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

image.png.1c92c9bfa7062beeb96e69ff06d83947.png

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

image.thumb.png.d4b4e6ef2927141a0aa022f6c38fd06e.png

 

You need to include cloudy days in this analysis. This would bump this to the worst winter ever 

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1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

The sun was out on Saturday in Roslyn and was peeking out in Syosset on way to Roslyn.  Don’t know for how long, as I was busy entertaining at my kid’s bday party. 

That’s it for the past 10 days lol

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And the winnah... the NAM and GFS (USA modeling) and Canadian as well vs the nil ECMWF.  Shallow RH, weak lift and here's the results.  I also added the NBM from 8PM the 29th which had a touch but am sure it was diminished by the nil EC.  Also, I don't think it captured elevated slightly heavier small flake snowfall. 

imo, no model can be disparaged every time...  I don't. Sometimes frustration-yes!  and the NBM is imperfect but a nice starting point, 

Here's the melted water equiv and snowfall from CoCoRaHs overnight.

Please click for your clarity if you wish

Screen Shot 2024-01-31 at 8.44.25 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-01-31 at 8.45.05 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2024-01-31 at 8.53.56 AM.png

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12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

image.png.1c92c9bfa7062beeb96e69ff06d83947.png

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

image.thumb.png.d4b4e6ef2927141a0aa022f6c38fd06e.png

 

What  if we also add in the amount of rainfall and lack of any sunshine into the mix? Does it rank even "higher" on the misery index if we add those two factors Don?

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What  if we also add in the amount of rainfall and lack of any sunshine into the mix? Does it rank even "higher" on the misery index if we add those two factors Don?

The data for clouds/sunshine is very limited (goes back to the 1990s). I will incorporate a rainfall variable (% of precipitation that falls as snow) into the mix later today.

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33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

image.png.1c92c9bfa7062beeb96e69ff06d83947.png

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

image.thumb.png.d4b4e6ef2927141a0aa022f6c38fd06e.png

 

I suspect we'll bump up a notch or two by 2/15.

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Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles.  Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive. 

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