January 2024

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why has it been so cloudy this month?

They say it's very rainy in strong el ninos, but aren't we in a very atypical el nino?  So therefore, we should have more sunshine!

We've been in an excessively cloudy period since about June.  

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Lock it in.

[Roger Smith]

Don, I posted (as PeterOD) on your X file, "did not know they had X in 1888."

But that map could actually bust in the other direction where it shows zero snow in NC and s.e. VA. 

Well, the DCA new record of 80 or 81 would of course have to park over top of the second highest temp of record in Jan (79 on same date in 1950) instead of blowing away some useless nondescript record. I hate when that happens. And it does happen ...

... So I took a look in my NYC files, this is the "top 15" of snubbed records that deserve a spot: 

 

__ Robbed of a Record Top 15 __

 

Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details

 t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ July 21, 1930, 1980 t1991 broken or denied by 1977 (104F)

 t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ Nov 15, 1973 (77F) broken by 1993 (80F)

 3.  ___ (16.5/20) __ Dec 4 1982 (72) lost record to 74F in 1998.

 4. ___ (15.5/20) ___ Sep 21, 1914 (94) denied by 1895 (95F).

 5. ___ (15/20) ____ Feb 16, 2023 (70) denied by 1954 (71F).

 6. ___ (14.5/20) __ Aug 9, 1949 (100) broken by 2001 (103F).

 t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 17 1976 (91) lost record to 96F in 2002.

 t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 18 2002 (91) denied by 96F in 1976.

 9. ___ (13.5/20) __Nov 1, 1974 (81) denied by 84F in 1950.

t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 7 1929 (89) lost record to 92F in 2010. 

t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 8 1929 (88) lost record to 90F in 1991.

12. ___ (12.83/20) ___ Feb 15, 1954 (69) denied by 1949 (73F)

13. ___ (12.67/20) ___ Jan 14, 2005 (66F) was not a record (70F 1932). 

14. ___ (11.67/20) ___ Jan 12, 2017 (66F) lost out to 70F in 2020.

15. ___ (11.5/20) ____ Aug 27, 1953/73 (98F) denied by 1948 (100F)

 The list will be checked in future, there are numerous cases just outside this top 15 in the 9-11 range.

(List is objectively generated by considering how many days among the 20 on either side of the lost or unclaimed record the "snubbed record" would be a daily record -- that is the meaning of the number in brackets. A tie is counted by its decimal equivalent (0.5 or 0.33) as a tie created by its inclusion. 

The weakest records by number broken within ten days either side are: 

 

Weakest daily records

Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details

 1.  ___ (0/20) ___ 56F Feb 7, 2020 (lowest daily record)

 2. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Dec 19, 1899 t1931 is second lowest daily record (tied with case below) 

 3. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Jan 15, 1995 is tied second lowest daily record (tied with above case)

 4. ___ (0/20) ___ 88F May 14, 1900 is lowest since May 1, 2001 (87F). 

 5. ___ (0/20) ___ 93F June 12, 1933, 1973, 2017 is lowest after 92F for May 18.

 6. ___ (0/20) ___ 92F Aug 23, 1916, lower than all records until tie Sep 15th, 91F Sep 18th.  

t7. ___(0.5/20) ___ 65F Mar 3, 1991 lowest after Feb 14 (62F). Tied 65F Feb 26, 1890 (t7)

 9. ___ (1/20) ___ 59F Feb 2, 1988 would only beat #1 above. 

10. ___ (1/20) ___ 60F Jan 10, 1876 would only beat #3 above. 

11. ___ (1/20) ___ 96F June 28, 1969, 1991 (beats only 95F June 18)

12. ___ (1/20) ___ 71F Nov 17, 1953 (beats only 67F on Nov 26)

13. ___ (1/20) ___ 67F Nov 26, 1946 (beats only 66F on Dec 2, 1970)

Quite a few records score 1.5 or 2.0 in this regard. 

It should be noted that "shoulder season" records are at a disadvantage as seasonal averages fall or rise. 

Even so, a few of these have entered the list. 

[the_other_guy]

This is a very stubborn airmass. Im up in Lake Placid, and while there is plenty of snow on the ground about 40 miles north of Albany, it is still above freezing after sunset and has been for most of the past 4 days.

Just a shitty airmass in what has been shitty winter

[bluewave]

Islip is getting very close to its cloudiest January on record using 9am observations.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=9&year=2024&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

[donsutherland1]

In her, "In the bleak midwinter," 19th Century English poet Christina Rossetti wrote:

In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan,
Earth stood hard as iron, water like a stone;
Snow had fallen, snow on snow, snow on snow,
In the bleak midwinter, long ago.

In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, the kind of cold and snow that inspired Rossetti is nowhere to be found. That will remain the case therough the remainder of January.

A storm will bring additional rain to the region late tonight into early Monday. The rain could mix with wet snow tomorrow morning and then end as a period of wet snow or flurries in New York City tomorrow night or Monday morning. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City and Newark. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations.

The remainder of January will likely wind up generally warmer than normal with the exception of perhaps a transient shot of cold. No strong Arctic shots are likely.

As a result, January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -3.29 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.981 today.

On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.390 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.354 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.6° (2.9° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

This January is another example of how the La Niña background state of recent years can emerge even during a borderline super El Niño. It’s the result of the record IO to WPAC SSTs focusing the forcing closer to where we would expect to see during a La Niña. So we get a Southeast ridge pattern with 80° record warmth in DC. It’s an interesting combo with such a strong El Niño STJ in place. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead numbers: Cooler than the prior week but a snowy outcome appears unlikely based on those numbers and forecast drier pattern.

[SACRUS]

 

39/39 and rain already 0.80 in the bucket.  Rain lingers throughout the day. Dries out monday but wont fully clear out till maybe Wed.  Beyond there colder open to Feb with trough into the northeast before moderating.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Week ahead numbers: Cooler than the prior week but a snowy outcome appears unlikely based on those numbers and forecast drier pattern.

at least it will be sunny after Monday!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

39/39 and rain already 0.80 in the bucket.  Rain lingers throughout the day. Dries out monday but wont fully clear out till maybe Wed.  Beyond there colder open to Feb with trough into the northeast before moderating.

 

 

Hopefully we'll clear out by Tuesday Tony, seeing the sun yesterday was so nice.

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This January is another example of how the La Niña background state of recent years can emerge even during a borderline super El Niño. It’s the result of the record IO to WPAC SSTs focusing the forcing closer to where we would expect to see during a La Niña. So we get a Southeast ridge pattern with 80° record warmth in DC. It’s an interesting combo with such a strong El Niño STJ in place. 

 

Chris what's the reason for the La Nina background state? Would you say climate change is causing the western PAC and IO to warm up much more quickly and that's what's triggering it?

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

34.2 and a 50/50 mix of rain and snow. So much precip already wasted. So close and so far. 

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Don, I posted (as PeterOD) on your X file, "did not know they had X in 1888."

But that map could actually bust in the other direction where it shows zero snow in NC and s.e. VA. 

Well, the DCA new record of 80 or 81 would of course have to park over top of the second highest temp of record in Jan (79 on same date in 1950) instead of blowing away some useless nondescript record. I hate when that happens. And it does happen ...

... So I took a look in my NYC files, this is the "top 15" of snubbed records that deserve a spot: 

 

__ Robbed of a Record Top 15 __

 

Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details

 t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ July 21, 1930, 1980 t1991 broken or denied by 1977 (104F)

 t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ Nov 15, 1973 (77F) broken by 1993 (80F)

 3.  ___ (16.5/20) __ Dec 4 1982 (72) lost record to 74F in 1998.

 4. ___ (15.5/20) ___ Sep 21, 1914 (94) denied by 1895 (95F).

 5. ___ (15/20) ____ Feb 16, 2023 (70) denied by 1954 (71F).

 6. ___ (14.5/20) __ Aug 9, 1949 (100) broken by 2001 (103F).

 t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 17 1976 (91) lost record to 96F in 2002.

 t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 18 2002 (91) denied by 96F in 1976.

 9. ___ (13.5/20) __Nov 1, 1974 (81) denied by 84F in 1950.

t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 7 1929 (89) lost record to 92F in 2010. 

t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 8 1929 (88) lost record to 90F in 1991.

12. ___ (12.83/20) ___ Feb 15, 1954 (69) denied by 1949 (73F)

13. ___ (12.67/20) ___ Jan 14, 2005 (66F) was not a record (70F 1932). 

14. ___ (11.67/20) ___ Jan 12, 2017 (66F) lost out to 70F in 2020.

15. ___ (11.5/20) ____ Aug 27, 1953/73 (98F) denied by 1948 (100F)

 The list will be checked in future, there are numerous cases just outside this top 15 in the 9-11 range.

(List is objectively generated by considering how many days among the 20 on either side of the lost or unclaimed record the "snubbed record" would be a daily record -- that is the meaning of the number in brackets. A tie is counted by its decimal equivalent (0.5 or 0.33) as a tie created by its inclusion. 

The weakest records by number broken within ten days either side are: 

 

Weakest daily records

Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details

 1.  ___ (0/20) ___ 56F Feb 7, 2020 (lowest daily record)

 2. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Dec 19, 1899 t1931 is second lowest daily record (tied with case below) 

 3. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Jan 15, 1995 is tied second lowest daily record (tied with above case)

 4. ___ (0/20) ___ 88F May 14, 1900 is lowest since May 1, 2001 (87F). 

 5. ___ (0/20) ___ 93F June 12, 1933, 1973, 2017 is lowest after 92F for May 18.

 6. ___ (0/20) ___ 92F Aug 23, 1916, lower than all records until tie Sep 15th, 91F Sep 18th.  

t7. ___(0.5/20) ___ 65F Mar 3, 1991 lowest after Feb 14 (62F). Tied 65F Feb 26, 1890 (t7)

 9. ___ (1/20) ___ 59F Feb 2, 1988 would only beat #1 above. 

10. ___ (1/20) ___ 60F Jan 10, 1876 would only beat #3 above. 

11. ___ (1/20) ___ 96F June 28, 1969, 1991 (beats only 95F June 18)

12. ___ (1/20) ___ 71F Nov 17, 1953 (beats only 67F on Nov 26)

13. ___ (1/20) ___ 67F Nov 26, 1946 (beats only 66F on Dec 2, 1970)

Quite a few records score 1.5 or 2.0 in this regard. 

It should be noted that "shoulder season" records are at a disadvantage as seasonal averages fall or rise. 

Even so, a few of these have entered the list. 

Thanks. I'm not on there all the time. I've followed you.

The above is an interesting list. I suspect a number of those weakest entries will be surpassed in the next decade.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (2002)
NYC: 66 (1916)
LGA: 60 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: -4 (1935)
NYC: -2 (1925)
LGA: 7 (2005)

 

Historical:

 

1887: Snowflakes "as large as milk pans" fell at Fort Keogh of Montana. The flakes, which were said to measure 15 inches across and 8 inches thick, hold the unofficial size record!

1922 - The "Knickerbocker" storm immobilized the city of Washington D.C. The storm produced 28 inches of snow in 32 hours, and the heavy snow caused the roof of the Knickerbocker movie theatre to collapse killing 96 persons. (David Ludlum)

1963 - The low of -34 degrees at Cynthiana, KY, equalled the state record established just four days earlier at Bonnieville. (The Weather Channel)

 

1969: Heavy rains of tropical origin that began on 1/18 ended on this day. As much as 50 inches of rain fell at 7,700 feet. 31 inches of rain fell on the south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 15.5 inches at San Jacinto Peak, around ten inches at Banning, less than one inch from Indio southeast. 91 were reported dead from flooding and mudslides all over California and state-wide

 

1977: The Blizzard of '77 was one of the worst winter storms to hit southern Ontario and upstate New York. With the rapid onset of the storm, about 2,000 students in the Niagara region were stranded overnight in schools.

 

1986: The Space Shuttle Challenger broke apart at 11:39 am EST, 73 seconds after liftoff from the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a frigid morning. Starting in the 20s, the ground temperature at liftoff was 36 degrees. Morton Thiokol recommended not launching if the liftoff temperature was below 53 degrees. The cold was blamed for causing the O-rings on the Shuttle's external booster to fail, leading to the explosion. Low-level wind shear also played a factor.

1987 - A storm moving out of the Central Rockies into the Northern Plains Region produced up to a foot of snow in the Colorado Rockies, and wind gusts to 99 mph at Boulder CO. High winds in Colorado caused 5.6 million dollars damage. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Barometric pressure readings of 30.55 inches at Miami FL, 30.66 inches at Tampa FL, and 30.72 inches at Apalachicola FL were all-time record high readings for those locations. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Nome, AK, reported an all-time record low reading of 54 degrees below zero, and the temperature at Fairwell AK dipped to 69 degrees below zero. Deadhorse AK reported a morning low of 49 degrees below zero, and with a wind chill reading of 114 degrees below zero. In the Lower Forty-eight States, a winter storm over Colorado produced up to 15 inches of snow around Denver. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong and gusty winds prevailed across the northwestern U.S., and heavy snow continued over the mountains of Washington State and Oregon. In Idaho, Mullan received seven inches of snow, and winds gusted to 65 mph southeast of Burley. Heavy rain soaked coastal sections of western Oregon. Rainfall totals of 1.20 inches at Portland and 1.57 inches at Eugene were records for the date. Winds in Oregon gusting to 60 mph downed power lines in Umatilla County knocking out power to more than 13,000 homes, just prior to the kick-off of the "Super Bowl" game. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (2002)
NYC: 66 (1916)
LGA: 60 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: -4 (1935)
NYC: -2 (1925)
LGA: 7 (2005)

 

Historical:

 

1887: Snowflakes "as large as milk pans" fell at Fort Keogh of Montana. The flakes, which were said to measure 15 inches across and 8 inches thick, hold the unofficial size record!

1922 - The "Knickerbocker" storm immobilized the city of Washington D.C. The storm produced 28 inches of snow in 32 hours, and the heavy snow caused the roof of the Knickerbocker movie theatre to collapse killing 96 persons. (David Ludlum)

1963 - The low of -34 degrees at Cynthiana, KY, equalled the state record established just four days earlier at Bonnieville. (The Weather Channel)

 

1969: Heavy rains of tropical origin that began on 1/18 ended on this day. As much as 50 inches of rain fell at 7,700 feet. 31 inches of rain fell on the south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 15.5 inches at San Jacinto Peak, around ten inches at Banning, less than one inch from Indio southeast. 91 were reported dead from flooding and mudslides all over California and state-wide

 

1977: The Blizzard of '77 was one of the worst winter storms to hit southern Ontario and upstate New York. With the rapid onset of the storm, about 2,000 students in the Niagara region were stranded overnight in schools.

 

1986: The Space Shuttle Challenger broke apart at 11:39 am EST, 73 seconds after liftoff from the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a frigid morning. Starting in the 20s, the ground temperature at liftoff was 36 degrees. Morton Thiokol recommended not launching if the liftoff temperature was below 53 degrees. The cold was blamed for causing the O-rings on the Shuttle's external booster to fail, leading to the explosion. Low-level wind shear also played a factor.

1987 - A storm moving out of the Central Rockies into the Northern Plains Region produced up to a foot of snow in the Colorado Rockies, and wind gusts to 99 mph at Boulder CO. High winds in Colorado caused 5.6 million dollars damage. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Barometric pressure readings of 30.55 inches at Miami FL, 30.66 inches at Tampa FL, and 30.72 inches at Apalachicola FL were all-time record high readings for those locations. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Nome, AK, reported an all-time record low reading of 54 degrees below zero, and the temperature at Fairwell AK dipped to 69 degrees below zero. Deadhorse AK reported a morning low of 49 degrees below zero, and with a wind chill reading of 114 degrees below zero. In the Lower Forty-eight States, a winter storm over Colorado produced up to 15 inches of snow around Denver. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong and gusty winds prevailed across the northwestern U.S., and heavy snow continued over the mountains of Washington State and Oregon. In Idaho, Mullan received seven inches of snow, and winds gusted to 65 mph southeast of Burley. Heavy rain soaked coastal sections of western Oregon. Rainfall totals of 1.20 inches at Portland and 1.57 inches at Eugene were records for the date. Winds in Oregon gusting to 60 mph downed power lines in Umatilla County knocking out power to more than 13,000 homes, just prior to the kick-off of the "Super Bowl" game. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

what caused the snowflakes to be so big? I wonder how large the largest snowflakes ever photographed were?

 

 

1887: Snowflakes "as large as milk pans" fell at Fort Keogh of Montana. The flakes, which were said to measure 15 inches across and 8 inches thick, hold the unofficial size record!

 

 

[bluewave]

Another winter with top 5 and top 10 warmth around the region to date. 
 

[jm1220]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This January is another example of how the La Niña background state of recent years can emerge even during a borderline super El Niño. It’s the result of the record IO to WPAC SSTs focusing the forcing closer to where we would expect to see during a La Niña. So we get a Southeast ridge pattern with 80° record warmth in DC. It’s an interesting combo with such a strong El Niño STJ in place. 

 

So basically we have a more wet Nina winter. Can certainly tell that today. Yippee!! 

[SnoSki14]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another winter with top 5 and top 10 warmth around the region to date. 
 

It's scary how normalized this has become. 

I feel like summer is a ticking time bomb for us. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

So basically we have a more wet Nina winter. Can certainly tell that today. Yippee!! 

but with the warm el nino December too

enso really doesn't matter anymore

this doesn't have anything to do with la nina or el nino

it's simply warmer like it has been for years now

 

[donsutherland1]

Periods of light rain will likely continue to fall throughout the New York City area tonight. This rain could mix with or end as some wet snow or flurries tomorrow morning in New York City. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City and Newark. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations.

January will wind up as a solidly warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern. There has been some increase in uncertainty concerning the timing of such an evolution.

The overall February outlook is unusually uncertain. The outcome will be a function of often counteracting forces: the decay of the strong El Niño/ENSO region developments, concurrent marine heatwaves, shifting teleconnections, tropical convection, and ongoing background warming, among other factors. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a shift toward a sustained colder pattern near mid-month, which would be consistent with strong El Niño climatology. However, there are some cautionary notes.

For example, if the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averages +0.15°C or above, that typically results in a warmer, less snowy outcome for New York City for February cases with ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of +0.50°C or above than those with a colder average anomaly for Region 1+2 (NYC monthly mean temperature: 35.0° vs. 31.2°; NYC average monthly snowfall: 6.0" vs. 16.4"). February 2016 (4.0") was a recent example of a warmer Region 1+2 case. February 2010 (36.9") was a recent example of a colder Region 1+2 cases. There can be exceptions. One exception was February 1983 that saw 21.5" of snow, largely from a major blizzard, despite an average Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.55°C.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -10.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.895 today.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.423 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.390 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.8° (3.1° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but with the warm el nino December too

enso really doesn't matter anymore

this doesn't have anything to do with la nina or el nino

it's simply warmer like it has been for years now

 

If we could buy a sustained +PNA with cold available to be sent SE we would be fine. But we get brief cold windows where we can’t get anything to produce other than our minor couple of inch events, and long periods where we turn into San Francisco or otherwise torch because the Pacific is awful and flings wave after wave of puke east across the country, and/or the cold is mostly shunted across the pole. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If we could buy a sustained +PNA with cold available to be sent SE we would be fine. But we get brief cold windows where we can’t get anything to produce other than our minor couple of inch events, and long periods where we turn into San Francisco or otherwise torch because the Pacific is awful and flings wave after wave of puke east across the country, and/or the cold is mostly shunted across the pole. 

if we really are in a negative PNA cycle it could be a decade or two before we have that again, you'd think it would happen in a very strong el nino but it hasn't.  It makes me wonder if it's many years before we get a sustained positive PNA, what our climate will be like when it does happen again.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Periods of light rain will likely continue to fall throughout the New York City area tonight. This rain could mix with or end as some wet snow or flurries tomorrow morning in New York City. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City and Newark. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations.

January will wind up as a solidly warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern. There has been some increase in uncertainty concerning the timing of such an evolution.

The overall February outlook is unusually uncertain. The outcome will be a function of often counteracting forces: the decay of the strong El Niño/ENSO region developments, concurrent marine heatwaves, shifting teleconnections, tropical convection, and ongoing background warming, among other factors. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a shift toward a sustained colder pattern near mid-month, which would be consistent with strong El Niño climatology. However, there are some cautionary notes.

For example, if the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averages +0.15°C or above, that typically results in a warmer, less snowy outcome for New York City for February cases with ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of +0.50°C or above than those with a colder average anomaly for Region 1+2 (NYC monthly mean temperature: 35.0° vs. 31.2°; NYC average monthly snowfall: 6.0" vs. 16.4"). February 2016 (4.0") was a recent example of a warmer Region 1+2 case. February 2010 (36.9") was a recent example of a colder Region 1+2 cases. There can be exceptions. One exception was February 1983 that saw 21.5" of snow, largely from a major blizzard, despite an average Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.55°C.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -10.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.895 today.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.423 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.390 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.8° (3.1° above normal).

 

Don it's also useful to remember that there was a major storm on Long Island in February 2016, it was just barely east of Manhattan, and even there resulted in a big crane accident and death.

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

So basically we have a more wet Nina winter. Can certainly tell that today. Yippee!! 

Todays event just shows you what a ratter it’s been so far normally that’s a 4-8 inch snowfall for most of us but no cold air

[weathermedic]

.97 of rain at my station so far

[Brian5671]

Almost 15 inches of rain here since 12/1

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Almost 15 inches of rain here since 12/1

same here in The Swamps of Jersey - my sump pump is working overtime ..........etc etc - the OZ GFS - CMC and ICON are completely different on how they handle the block later this week - I suspect the northern stream is being overdone and as we go through the week that storm system moving through the deep south will trend north like the 12Z Canadian was hinting at.......

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Todays event just shows you what a ratter it’s been so far normally that’s a 4-8 inch snowfall for most of us but no cold air

97-98 just called….it wants its winter back

[donsutherland1]

On 1/21/2024 at 8:27 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Week ahead numbers: Mild with perhaps a strong shot of warmth and wet.

Final numbers for what had been an exceptionally warm and wet week in the Northeast.